Professional punter turned Bet Legends bookmaker Shaun Beirne is back with another edition of Take Us On, and this week he’s found two short-priced runners he believes the market has overestimated.
At Sandown, Beirne is keen to take on Small Fry in the Zipping Classic, arguing that the market has become too fixated on his narrow defeat to Melbourne Cup winner Point Of Law.
Meanwhile, at Newcastle, the rapidly improving Savvy Spy faces his toughest test yet, and Beirne believes the market is asking plenty of him.
Here’s how Shaun is approaching the two races.
Zipping Classic: The market is underestimating the Aussies
Small Fry has been heavily supported on the back of his narrow Geelong Cup defeat to subsequent Melbourne Cup winner Point Of Law, but Beirne isn’t convinced that performance warrants his position as clear favourite.
“The market has jumped all over the half-length defeat to Point Of Law at Geelong. It was a good run, but the rating was only equal to his UK form,” Beirne said.
“It provides a great springboard for him to improve again, but the market is already assuming he’s going to produce a significant new personal best.”
Beirne believes the form of Juja Kibo and Kingswood is being underestimated, with both horses bringing stronger ratings into Saturday’s contest.
The Melbourne Cup has traditionally been an excellent form reference for the Zipping Classic, and Beirne was particularly taken by Juja Kibo’s performance behind Point Of Law.
“Juja Kibo was as good as anything outside the winner in the Melbourne Cup, and he’s holding his high rating really well,” he said.
“Then you’ve got Kingswood, who carried strong weight-for-age form into the Caulfield Cup. He was three and four wide against a savage track bias and still managed to win.”
Those performances leave Beirne questioning why Small Fry has been installed as such a dominant market elect.
“Both Juja Kibo and Kingswood have superior ratings to Small Fry, yet he’s the clear favourite. I think the market has got that wrong.
“Of course Small Fry can win, but at the current price I’m very happy to risk him. I expect him to drift and we’ll be aggressively top of the market.”
The play: Take on Small Fry at his current price.
Bet Legends special: Small Fry to finish first or second at $2.80. A market Beirne is keen to oppose.
Beauford Stakes: Savvy Spy faces his biggest test
Savvy Spy has been a revelation this preparation, producing a rapidly improving ratings profile that has caught Beirne’s attention.
But while the improvement is undeniable, Saturday’s Beauford represents a significant rise in difficulty.
“His spiralling ratings profile is scary. He’s improving rapidly, but this is clearly the toughest race of his career so far,” Beirne said.
Savvy Spy produced a substantial new personal best last week, but Beirne believes the market is pricing in another significant leap forward.
“He needs to repeat that big personal best from last week and then find another two lengths on top of it to justify his current price.
“That’s a big ask, particularly against stronger opposition.”
Unlike Small Fry, Beirne is wary of taking an overly aggressive position against a horse whose ratings continue to climb.
“I’m happy to risk him at the price, but given how quickly he’s improving, we won’t be going over the top.”
The play: Take on Savvy Spy, but with a more cautious approach than Small Fry.
