| Race | Horse | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Margot’s Deel | SCRATCHED |
| 3 | Bon Vader | Trial was fair, debut fair and can improve. |
Turf Talk
- Rail 10.5m
- Weather mobs are having a bit each way with the forecast but could be a heap of rain Tuesday.
- With rail out this usually plays to the front.
- This meeting has just been destroyed after scratching’s.
The stats that matter
- Jockey Tahlia Fenlon has a bit of a hot hand. She has ridden 5 winners from her last 19 rides. Not a great book here but keep in mind for the next week or so.
- Trainer Matt Dunn out of Murwillumbah has 30 winners this season striking at 20% and with a +10.7 ROI.
Race 1
One of the worst races you will see today.
(5) Nienna and (3) Continent come out of the same Ipswich race last start and went over the line together. Nienna travelled sweetly into the corner but was a touch soft late. Thought Continent was better there but has come out now.
The NSW provincial form that (2) Tommy Thug brings is better than the rest of these. Comes here 3rd up for the leading stable, ready to improve and finds an easy race. 16 starts without a win the query.
(6) Sea Me Dance has been around the money, rock hard fit now and looks the only other winning chance.
Selections:
(2) Tommy Thug
(5) Nienna
(6) Sea Me Dance
Suggested Bet: No bet after scratchings.
Race 2
A few scratchings but even tempo set here.
(2) Swag had first Qld run and was well supported at Doomben. Got out after a big leader and just needed one more stride. Just a nice, lightly raced horse who has some upside.
Liked the way (7) Tintaura and (8) In Society hit the line last start and can be players here. In Society has had a few chances but comes here 3rd up and a repeat of the last effort would go close. Tintaura is also 3rd up and expect improvement in a good stable. Yet to land in the money in four runs dents the confidence a bit.
I can’t really make a winning case for others.
Selections:
(2) Swag
(8) In Society
(7) Tintaura
Suggested Bet: Win bet (2) Swag if $2.50
Race 3
Hard to win on debut but (1) Bon Vader was great without winning. Was wide, over-raced and still strong in the straight. Can improve sharply off that experience and fitness.
I don’t trust (4) Nottington Prince but it can throw in a good one on it’s day. Last start was very good and they beat the others easily. (8) On Point Pixie and (11) Shortcut have shown some ability and are exotic hopes here. Shortcut in a stable going well and can be strong late in this.
Selections:
(1) Bon Vader
(4) Nottington Prince
(11) Shortcut
Suggested Bet: (1) Bon Vader now the other main chance has been scratched.
Race 4
(5) Doingiteasy and (8) Strike The Heart go forward but no real tempo here.
Best bet has come out and this meeting is falling apart.
(2) San Gabriel has only won 1 of 10 but reckon he’s got more ability than that. Comes here 3rd up for the new stable and respect any market moves. (3) Easy Love was probably slightly better than that horse and is 1/1 this track and trip. Should map not far off the lead and will look the winner at the 200m.
Looks a race in two.
Selections:
(3) Easy Love
(2) San Gabriel
Suggested Bet: Best bet has come out
Race 5
Looked a good race but decimated now. (6) Gorbachev, (8) North Pole can all roll forward if they choose.
The topweight (1) Ruins Of Rome went around in some strong 3yo races last prep and was highly competitive with some good ones. Doesn’t map great and they choose to carry the 61kg.
Well, I backed (2) Abender three times last prep and then he wins his last start before a break where I wasn’t on. Enough said. With Gollan, can improve this prep and always trials well as he has done again.
(8) North Pole is a nice looking Farnan gelding and looks one who can be a stronger horse this time in work. Looked the winner a couple of times last prep but little soft late.
Selections:
(2) Abender
(1) Ruins Of Rome
(8) North Pole
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
Gollan with another major hand in how this plays out.
Top two have been scratched here too.
(4) Sirkel has poor form at the end of last prep but the work through the line in a trial was good enough for me to think she can have some say in the outcome here.
Maybe (1) Mehretu might be next best and yet another Gollan hope. Not the best of luck last start but still think it lacks a little class.
(9) Sequel was a winner last start and may continue to improve for Waller. (6) Every Heart is 4th up and ready to show best.
Selections:
(4) Sirkel
(1) Mehretu
(9) Sequel
(6) Every Heart
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
Below average speed. Advantage to be on speed or have a jock who is willing to try something.
Love the way (7) Hereditary has been going and we were unlucky to miss by a lip at $18 last start. Can be around midfield and might make a long wide run like last start to get into the race.
(3) Disney Castle is a slightly better horse this time in work. Winner two runs back and then close up 2nd at this track last time. KWT rides and this trip should be OK now she is rock hard fit.
(8) American Phireball has mixed form horribly this prep but went over the line with Hereditary last start and drops 3.5kg here.
Respect any money for (9) Ring Bearer first up with Thompson steering. Not a (5) Whisky Dream man myself but set to peak here and best form good enough.
Selections:
(7) Hereditary
(8) American Phireball
(3) Disney Castle
(5) Whisky Dream
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8
(10) Power Ace should find the front, but not too much tempo.
(11) Pocketmoney has been good including a win last start. Munce yard have been incredible the last couple of months and have to respect here.
(7) Ellibaby has had good support and (3) Boom Shot has ability, just a frustrating non-winner.
Selections:
(11) Pocketmoney
(7) Ellibaby
(3) Boom Shot
Suggested Bet: No bet
