Betsy’s Set: Geelong

Race by race overview:

Race 1

(6) Limosa was sharply lifted from a mile to eleven furlongs last start and was narrowly touched off by the fast-finishing favourite. She’s entitled to improve over a mile and a half and rightly holds favouritism.

(2) Scorpion Bay closed strongly from the rear of the field at Tatura and backs up quickly with blinkers applied. The obvious knock on his chances are that he is devoid of early speed and trainer Danny Curran has had just one winner in the past three years.

(4) Wyndstar raced reasonably well relative to this grade of race in his first preparation for Lindsay Park. He’s since been transferred to Paul Preusker and resumed running last at Bordertown. He was popular with South Australian punters there and if he can improve to the level of form expected from him that day, he can be competitive.

(1) Last Card Louie can run well.

Selections:
(6) Limosa
(2) Scorpion Bay
(4) Wyndstar
(1) Last Card Louie

Race 2

(8) Silent Answer was heavily supported on debut, firming from $21 into a $5.70 BSP against a quality Maiden field. From a wide draw, she was restrained to the rear of the field, and quickened well to record the second fastest concluding sectional of the meeting. She’s since trialled between runs and is deserving of favouritism.

(10) Venetian Choice comes through a strong form race, finishing second to Shystar, who herself was second to Ole Dancer before her spell. The query is that she did start 50/1 there, but if she can replicate that level of performance, she’s the main danger to Silent Answer.

(3) Boomeroo trialled well at Mornington, making significant late ground from the rear under a hold. Still, the overall depth of that trial is questionable.

Selections:
(8) Silent Answer
(10) Venetian Choice
(3) Boomeroo
(4) Emanating

Suggested bet: Backing Silent Answer

Race 3

(11) Lady Verity is a clear and deserved favourite, trading around even money at the time of writing, and that quote is likely to shorten further. Her last-start rating comfortably tops this field, and she appears to have come on again since, winning her most recent jumpout by eight lengths. It’s entirely reasonable to expect her to start $1.60.

Both (10) Dihhery and (9) Cuisine have trialled well ahead of their returns and can run to a competitive level.

By the time I’ve finished writing this, Lady Verity has already firmed noticeably. Anything north of $1.85 represents value.

Selections:
(11) Lady Verity
(10) Dihhery
(9) Cuisine
(3) Jade Trees

Suggested bet: Lady Verity at $1.85 or better

Race 4

(6) Next Step Iowa was excellent on debut, producing the meeting’s fastest closing 400m and 200m before progressing to beat the handy Blue Hawaiian. She has trialled superbly, leading into this preparation, suggesting she’s taken another step forward with time. I’ve marked her 2/1.

(4) Youwroteuponit won well on debut before being tipped out by Grahame Begg. That race has since produced five winners, albeit none of great substance. She has trialled like a filly who has returned in good order.

(5) National Code won a test of late speed at Kyneton on Cup Day as an odds-on favourite. He’s clearly talented, and I have him priced at 4/1, alongside Youwroteuponit.

(2) Grande Terre beat what was essentially a picnic-class field last start, though he did run strong late splits doing so. I expect his price to continue to drift.

Selections:
(6) Next Step Iowa
(4) Yourwroteuponit
(5) National Code
(2) Grande Terre

Suggested bet: Backing Next Step Iowa

Race 5

(11) Storm Leopard has jumped out like a horse with ability and hails from the distinguished family of Epaulette, Helmet and Pericles. He strikes the right race to debut in over 1314 metres and looks to have talent.

(4) Ten Warriors, a maiden after eight starts, holds a set of ratings that would comfortably handle this field, most notably when finishing in front of Pop Award at Sale. He can mix his form, and it’s still unclear whether he’s best suited at 1200 metres or a mile. Still, the booking of Mott signals intent, and he has trialled as if he’s healthy.

(12) Thinkimacelebrity comes through a strong race and won’t be a maiden for much longer.

Selections:
(11) Storm Leopard
(4) Ten Warriors
(12) Thinkimacelebrity
(2) Golden Spritz

Suggested Bet: No bet

Race 6

(4) Leonchroi is a far better horse than his record would suggest, though his lack of early speed continues to be his undoing. There seems to be a degree of pace on paper in this field, which is precisely what he needs. He’ll stay a mile and a half well and, with a proactive ride, is more than capable of handling this field.

(11) Sawbay finished off well without much luck last start and holds a bank of ratings that can trouble the favourite should he underperform.

(10) Jenni Intiba is the hole in the market, but remains a chance nonetheless. The figures she ran in her first preparation were strong before switching to Shane Jackson, and she should improve again at 2400 metres.

(6) Reliable Jo will make the running and give a sight.

Selections:
(4) Leonchroi
(11) Sawbay
(10) Jenni Intiba
(6) Reliable Jo

Suggested bet: Backing Leonchroi

Race 7

(8) Sparkling raced keenly first-up at Caulfield and weakened late after overexerting over 1100 metres. She’ll take improvement from that run and can make better use of her strong cruising speed back to six furlongs. With blinkers applied for the first time, she has a strong winning chance on her peak figures.

(1) Dirty Grin brings strong form lines, while (5) Ikasara can improve sharply second-up.

Selections:
(8) Sparkling
(1) Dirty Grin
(5) Ikasara
(7) Barbaric Lad

Suggested bet: No bet

Race 8

(3) Leg Drive has always hinted at above-average talent. He was dominant winning at Cranbourne at his second start before covering ground in a relentlessly run 2000-metre race at Flemington, where he stuck on for fourth. First up this campaign he was again forced wide and couldn’t quicken when the sprint went on between the 400m and 200m, yet he still charged home with the race’s second-fastest final furlong. He then won stylishly last start in a test of late speed, and there’s every reason to think he’ll improve again third-up.

(10) Seethru should ensure a strong tempo, which only enhances Leg Drive’s chances. He’s 56 days between runs and is vulnerable as favourite.

(13) Weather Delay is capable of running well.

Selections:
(3) Leg Drive
(10) Seethru
(13) Weather Delay

Suggested bet: Backing Leg Drive