Summary of Best Bets:
Value- Race 6 No.15 Extreme Diamond – Leading yard, 4th up and draws to sit closer.
Value- Race 8 No.1 Cifrado – Just a beauty who handles all conditions and rock hard fit now.
Roughie- Race 1 No.5 Moonan Quartz – A few overrated here and might lead and give a sight.
Turf Talk:
- Rail 2.5m- Great rail position on this track.
- Biggest guessing game is the weather. 34-36 degrees leading into Saturday and thunderstorms predicted which could drop 5-50ml in these current conditions.
Key Stats:
- Same as always. Currie and Munce stables, they are just producing winners incredibly often.
- Mark Currie – 47 winners from 203 runners this season (23.2%)
- Chris Munce – 18 winners from last 50 at 36% with a +51% ROI
Race by race overview
Race 1:
The two faves are from down south (11) Silver Wedding and (9) Miss Busslinger. I don’t feel they are that good and they are rock bottom odds. What helps them is that the rest of these are pretty plain. Silver Wedding did run well in a Listed race up here last prep but just pass marks since. Fitter and with Maher.
(2) Clear Proof is the other Sydney horse and nearly as good as them at twice the price. Still not a great horse but fitter 3rd up.
The form around (8) Creativity Miss is good. Pocketmoney and Waku Waku have franked the form. Still more the place for me.
(4) Land Bank is no star but is lightly raced, shown a little bit and most importantly joins the Gollan stable.
(5) Moonan Quartz only comes out of a lowly sunny coast Maiden, could win or run last here. He comes from a winning family and I liked the way he worked to lead at a decent tempo and was still the 2nd best L200m of the race. Can take time to cross here and run a race at $35?
Selections:
(5) Moonan Quartz
(11) Silver Wedding
(8) Creativity Miss
(9) Miss Busslinger
(2) Clear Proof
Suggested Bet: Small bet (5) Moonan Quartz at big odds.
Race 2:
Well, Currie is the only one getting close to Munce at the moment and he has (6) Thinkhardandfast engaged. Since joining the stable the horse has run 3rd over 1200m, 3rd over 1350m in town, 2nd over 1600m in town and then won last weekend over 1800m. On the quick back up and how can you find a knock?
(5) Mannerheim has been very good 2 of his last 3. Winner bolted in last start and the margin not fair. Rock hard fit and should be one of the strongest late.
(1) Rattle And Hum bit plain fresh but good stable and will strip fitter.
(8) Around The Buoy is limited but has improved each run this prep and now finally ready to improve. More a place chance but this stable at the moment makes it hard to say no.
(9) Amahni’s Girl and (11) Throttle Response have ability and both seem to have good upside.
Selections:
(6) Thinkhardandfast
(5) Mannerheim
(11) Throttle Response
(9) Amahni’s Girl
(8) Around The Buoy
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3:
(6) Perfect Play has been good all prep and very competitive in the two Qld runs. In a good yard, draws a good gate and gets a chance here. $18-$12 as soon as markets opened and has fitness on side compared to most of these.
(12) Zouna showed a heap of ability as a youngster and then nearly 500 days off. Has been a slow build as expected this prep but the run last start with 62kg was solid. Placed perfectly in this race and gets a chance to win again now.
A few good horses fresh and likely to need the run. (14) Pocketmoney could be around the money but some places opened as fave and happy to think it can’t win. Might be copping a ‘Munce Tax’ at that price.
Selections:
(12) Zouna
(6) Perfect Play
(9) Prince Levi
Suggested Bet: Win bet (12) Zouna and Place bet (6) Perfect Play
Race 4:
Bit of a trap race this. (6) Space Tracker is a consistent type who can map well. Well beaten in a good race last start but has had 46 days off since then. Gets a nice run and can bounce back.
(2) Corfe Castle was good on speed last start and can produce a beauty. Can also be soft late and I don’t have much luck with him.
This distance sees (12) Heyoka out but she is one of the more consistent and in form mares. Liked the whole prep but 50 days between runs and would rather her at 1200m. Form from last couple says she can still win.
Lots of others can win but if I haven’t mentioned it’s because I don’t trust them and had enough of them.
Selections:
(12) Heyoka
(6) Space Tracker
(7) Chief Witness
(10) Navyonthehighway
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5:
(9) Balance The Books is just a ripper. Both wins have been outstanding and stepping to this trip looks perfect. Way better than BM70 grade and just needs a good ride from the bad gate. Ridiculously short but a good one in the making.
(10) Galpin changed stables and the win at Ipswich was outstanding. This is harder but sometimes you just have to believe your eyes. Been money for this and looks the other winning chance.
(12) Kilonova brings Syd form and in Waller stable but just been pass marks recently.
Bad gate for (2) Pierata’s Gem but stable has them running through brick walls and jock can do nothing wrong.
Selections:
(9) Balance The Books
(10) Galpin
(2) Pierata’s Gem
(12) Kilonova
Suggested Bet: Quinella 9,10
Race 6:
Decent tempo up front and the $2 fav (12) Now Is The Hour looks to get the run of the race. 1-3-1 the record reads since joining Gollan and Jones retains the ride. Handles all ground and the one to beat.
(4) First Mission seemed to hit a flat spot between horses but good late last start. Maps well, gets every chance and will look the winner at some stage for sure.
Double figures for (15) Extreme Diamond seems the wrong price. Has been the best 400-200m split in all three runs this time in and has a stack of upside. They have been extremely negative on jumping, they may sit closer from the gate and can win.
Selections:
(15) Extreme Diamond
(12) Now Is The Hour
(4) First Mission
Suggested Bet: Win (15) Extreme Diamond and cover with (12) Now Is The Hour
Race 7:
I’d think the on speed horses here have an advantage, but is (2) Zaszou too good? Was a Listed winner in Qld over the winter and has since joined Maher yard. Was excellent fresh over 1100m and to 1200m more suitable. May just need this run but feel she is the class.
(5) Midnight In Tokyo is always a chance around this level. She is a trier, she is tactically versatile and a must for exotics.
I reckon the form around (7) En Pointe last start is good and at $35 could land in to the exotics as well.
(3) El Morzillo is fitter now. (8) Lonhro’s Queen going well for a stable on fire. (9) Sunset Dreaming and (12) Surprise Honey are Gollan.
Selections:
(2) Zaszou
(5) Midnight In Tokyo
(9) Sunset Dreaming
(7) En Pointe
(3) El Morzillo
Suggested Bet: Win bet (2) Zaszou
Race 8:
Very competitive race here. Average tempo but most should get their chance.
Have always loved (1) Cifrado and he has a touch of class. He just always needs luck with his pattern. 1350m from a good gate and he can sit closer here. Handles all ground and can win.
(9) Boomtown Boss with just 53.5kg is the horse on the way up. Backed as if unbeatable fresh and they got it right. Grand final is further down the track but he is only tracking upwards and a long way off his ceiling.
(7) Tuff Tu Mus is a beauty with an incredible record (9:7:2:0). Multiple trials leading in and should be on speed.
(2) Oughton takes a couple of runs and will be ready to show best now.
Selections:
(1) Cifrado
(9) Boomtown Boss
(7) Tuff Tu Mus
(2) Oughton
Suggested Bets: I’d back (1) Cifrado and cover with (9) Boomtown Boss
Race 9:
I’ve gone from loving (16) Margot’s Deel to don’t feel much for her. Was scratched multiple times from winnable races and then finally turns up and gets it done when I jumped off because of all the scratchings. Needs a good ride from the gate.
(2) Naval Seal started the prep well but was reported to be too firm last start. If you can be forgiving and there is a drop of rain, he could bounce back. Opened close to $20, seems well over the odds.
(1) Express Payment might be next best but a lot of these mix their form.
(8) Ludovisi can be promoted if some rain comes.
Selections:
(16) Margot’s Deel
(2) Naval Seal
(1) Express Payment
(8) Ludovisi
Suggested Bets: No bet
Race 10:
I can’t catch (9) John Rambo but if they go silly up front, he can be the strongest late. Has a good turn of foot but doesn’t always run up to market expectations.
(6) Hell has an amazing record (17:7:2:4) and they change stable to go to Gollan. Big call but there is a reason he’s the best. Has trialled well but market best guide with him. Gate?
(19) Bossed Up beaten fair and square last start but is consistent and draws better than some of the main hopes.
Selections:
(9) John Rambo
(19) Bossed Up
(6) Hell
(2) Caspernova
Suggested bets: No bet
