Summary of Best Bets:
Race 7 #1 Grafterburners – He’s just a jet. Like the form from the fresh run and didn’t parade great that day. May be lengths better here.
Value- Race 4 #1 Yet He Moves – Happy to back at $6+. Thought he’d be clear fav against these.
Race 6 #1 Itchintogo- Better for the run last start and that was a good effort. On speed and hard to run down.
Turf Talk:
- Rail – TRUE
- Warm weather and rail in the True sets up for a great day’s racing.
- Maps and barriers are always important over the sprint trips (1000-1200m) and the 1600m start.
Stats that matter:
- My favourite apprentice Jasper Franklin has won 10 of his last 50 rides and has a ROI of 26.8%. Can ride.
- Another of my favourite jocks is Martin Harley and he’s striking at 26% from his last 50 with a ROI of 33%.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Not much speed engaged and should suit (7) Naval Commission and (9) The Irish who could be the leaders. Both might not have the class of a few others but they have no weight and can give a sight.
(3) Galifianakis has been great all prep and might be going as well as ever. Does have the big weight but like the races he comes through and does like this track/trip (4:2:1:0).
(6) Sun Worshipper has been consistent of late. Think she would love a drop of rain but a must in exotics.
(2) Diablo Bolt was well beaten fresh but I think it can be a big improver here 2nd up. May need the run but really liked some of the performances last prep and could surprise a few here (but not me).
Selections:
(3) Galifianakis
(2) Diablo Bolt
(6) Sun Worshipper
(7) Naval Commision
(9) The Irish
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (3) Galiafinakis
Race 2:
(9) Cosmo Centaurus is always loved in the market. Pretty consistent type but probably not as good as the punters think he is. This this about his range and always a chance in this grade. Draws to get a decent run, likes the track and should be in the finish again. Went over the line with (7) Bold Comic last start. He’s been good recently, good late splits and some hope again for sure.
(8) Chief Witness is in career best form (same as his stable). Wide gate is a little concern here but if he gets some cover in the run he has to be respected.
(14) Seneschal is flying. No idea why the drift from $5 to $12 last start. Used a heap of petrol early and still nearly won last start. Will look the winner for a long way here.
(15) Ready To Schipp has been a dominant on-speed winner his last two and starting to reach the level I thought he would. If he gets across, he might be hard to catch.
Good punting race this one.
Selections:
(15) Ready To Schipp
(14) Seneschal
(9) Cosmo Centaurus
(8) Chief Witness
Suggested Bet: Quinella 9,14,15
Race 3:
Best of luck lining these up.
(2) Invahir has won or placed in 19 of 29, was a winner last start and comes here set to peak 3rd up. Has a class edge on most of these but the gate from this starting point is near impossible.
(1) Sunnycoast is the best horse in the race. Has won 10 of 22, rock hard fit and this trip suits. Has to spot them weight, but again, bit of class on most of them.
Simply throwing in (8) Smiling Zac as Currie has the team going well, draws well and gets Angela Jones in the saddle.
(5) King Jester was a Townsville winner last start, also draws OK and gets Thompson steering which is a huge plus.
Selections:
(1) Sunnycoast
(5) King Jester
(8) Smiling Zac
(2) Invahir
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4:
I have a few trust issues with many of these.
The toppy (1) Yet He Moves is the most consistent and easier to trust. Has the big weight but claims 3kg to help out. Very good effort in the Mooloolaba cup and draws to land wherever they want.
(2) Keitel had been flying and stepped up to the Mooloolaba Cup and just got caught out there. Just a plain run but if you can forgive that, his previous form could win here. Like the apprentice onboard.
(4) Blazen Boots was a dominant winner last start but he’s just not one of mine.
(10) Nails Murphy had good late splits last week and on the back might be a good ploy. This is a touch harder though.
Don’t like the race but thought the toppy would be half the $6.50 it’s opened.
Selections:
(1) Yet He Moves
(2) Keitel
(10) Nails Murphy
(4) Blazen Boots
Suggested Bet: Win bet (1) Yet He Moves if the $6 holds up.
Race 5:
Happy for the country legends to get races in town but buggered if I’ve ever found a winner with so many different formlines and capacity fields.
(13) Odegaard has been good to me up north so hard for me to go away from it. Won or placed in 11 of 14 and like the gate. Should be able to land midfield and be strong late.
(11) Journalism comes out of the same race and was strong late there. Well beaten before that but gets a good jock and nice weight drop.
(1) Skyforger is the proven horse in town and comes here off a big win. Tilley knows the horse back to front, draws perfectly and just has to lump the 62.5kg.
(5) Tijuana Two Step has also run well in town in previous preps and I thought might have gone on to better things.
Selections:
(13) Odegaard
(1) Skyforger
(11) Journalism
(5) Tijuana Two Step
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6:
Not an easy race to assess with the first starters.
Of the raced brigade (1) Itchintogo was excellent on debut. Ran 2nd and the winner might be handy. Has good tactical speed, this track suits and will look the winner for a long way here.
(8) Phere The Warrego (scr) and (9) Elusive Capital debuted in the same race at the sunny coast and were nearly identical runs. Absolutely nothing between them there. Elusive Capital draws better here but Phere The Warrego might have a little more improvement as it did a few things wrong.
Loved the most recent trial of (12) Bollente Bella. May just need the run and race experience but if there is money for her, best you respect.
Selections:
(1) Itchintogo
(9) Elusive Capital
(7) Magritte
(12) Bollente Bella
Suggested Bet: win bet (1) Itchintogo
Race 7:
Shut up and take my money. Love this horse (1) Grafterburners and love the form from that first up win. Another Cashie and Champagne Lane were well beaten there and run particularly well in town after that. He’s a jet this horse and will only be better for the run.
(3) Ninja is a beauty with a good record (3:2:0:1). Has the good on speed pattern that suits this track and was a nice looking trial win. Good stable and looks the main danger to the toppy here for sure.
(6) Lockyer is 2/2 on the track and has shown a good turn of foot on his day. Still a colt, with Gollan and watch the market. Stable seems to have a big opinion of (7) Midnight Spirit, fitter 3rd up but I’m not sold myself yet.
How (4) Torque To Be Sure is still a maiden has me baffled. Drifter last start, not much went right and can improve here. More a place than a win chance though.
(2) Damien is above average, ran well in November and strips fitter for this.
Selections:
(1) Grafterburners
(3) Ninja
(6) Lockyer
(2) Damien
Suggested Bet: Win (1) Grafterburners
Race 8:
I’m convinced (1) Caballus is the best horse in the race. Fresh run was excellent and then won a G3 at Flemington 2nd run back (bless him). Poor last start on the heavy and happy to forgive that run. Much easier here and just has to overcome the gate.
(2) Hidden Wealth is a winner but can mix form and is one I hadn’t had much luck with until last start. Gate 1 is a massive positive for this bloke. Likely to lead or box seat and be the horse they have to run down.
(5) Tavs has just turned into an absolute ripper. Two dominant wins this time in work and the stable is going well. Harder again here but have to respect.
(4) Lubrication won the Archer at Rocky last prep and savaged the line fresh this prep. Harder here but nice horse.
Selections:
(1) Callabus
(2) Hidden Wealth
(5) Tavs
(4) Lubrication
Suggested Bets: Win (1) Callabus
Race 9:
A lot of these went around against each other last start.
Have always liked (2) Foreign Press. Just an honest filly who always gives her best. Was a winner 2nd up last prep, maps to get the run of the race here and has good upside left. The other one I like out of that race is (8) Champagne Lane but the weights don’t help her here. She has more upside than most of these and like the way she has been hitting the line late in races.
(7) Ernaux (Waller) and (10) Pyrolysis (scr) come out of the same Maiden and only a nose between them. Ernaux is rock hard fit, 4th up and ready to show best. Still nice upside and well placed.
(13) Sylph showed good ability last prep and was 5th of 16 in a Listed race to finish the prep. Return run was strong after getting the run of the race. Won’t be a maiden for long.
They look the main four winning hopes.
Selections:
(2) Foreign Press
(8) Champagne Lane
(7) Ernaux
(13) Sylph
Suggested Bets: Box trifecta 2,7,8,13
Race 10:
This might be very competitive and a hard way to finish the quaddie.
Speed map is crucial but it is hard to tell how hard they will go. (5) Power Reece, (10) Nightline and (12) Hidden Future all draw double figure gates and want to be in the first few pairs. Big queries as to how much petrol they spend getting there from this tricky starting point.
(1) John Dory was very good on debut and improved sharply 2nd up. Still looked to have good improvement out of that and could be a horse Waller has targeted at the summer in Qld. Gets a soft run from a good gate also.
(5) Power Reece, (14) Krumac and (7) Vandevelde went around in the same race last start. Slow run affair and not much between them at all. Power Reece got the best run and won. Krumac drove hard late and Vandevelde just got too far back and was good too. Nothing between then here but I do like the way Krumac has been going.
No idea what to do with (6) Lyneham. This is much harder than last start but is lightly raced by a super sire in a stable that has them going through brick walls.
Nothing between half a dozen of these.
Selections:
(1) John Dory
(14) Krumac
(7) Vandevelde
(5) Power Reece
Suggested Bets: No bet
