Summary of Best Bets:
Race 2 #5 Prince Levi- May need the run but this is a weak race after scratching’s.
Race 4 #7 Nails Murphy- Was in two races and feel they have picked the right one.
Race 6 No.6 Agent Zero- On the way up for leading stable and on speed again.
Turf Talk:
- Rail 3m
- Very hot weather predicted.
- Big danger of this being a Firm 2
- TThat can lead to many horses not comfortable on the track and be a leaders track.
Stats that matter:
- Joe Pride striking at 26% for his last 50 runners and ROI +23.7%. Has Accredited in here and live chance.
- Braith Nock comes to Qld and is in form. Positive ROI his last 50 rides where he’s ridden 11 winners.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Like most meeting’s lately, two of the top 4 selections have come out and made this a poor way to start the meeting.
(3) Overfull can be soft late but is an out and out 1000m horse. Soft draw and claim for good apprentice are both positives.
(1) Holy Racket is the proven horse and gets a 3kg claim. After the others come out, he is now a leading hope and will be on speed for a long way here.
Nothing else interests me.
Selections:
(3) Overfull
(1) Holy Racket
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2:
Best of the day (2) has been scratched here!
Don’t underestimate (5) Prince Levi. Has shown very good ability and no luck at all first up. Effort was good and sure to be improved here. After scratching’s he may even be a bet here. He is better than many think. Only question is does he need one more?
(10) Sanctuary Storm is fav. Look, it’s consistent but I have a big query on it’s class. Maps perfect though and gets every chance.
(8) Kaffir Lily and (3) Noble Conqueror have ability on their day but I have huge trust issues with them.
Don’t like the others.
Selections:
(5) Prince Levi
(10 Sanctuary Storm
Suggested Bet: (5) Prince Levi
Race 3:
(6) Now Is The Hour is placed perfectly by Gollan. Has been a model of consistency for him since arriving. Has the good on speed pattern, maps beautifully and the only little knock is he might rather the cut out of the ground?
(4) Southern Charm fitter for recent runs and good last start at Ipswich. Munce/Harley combo and can be highly competitive.
(8) Aitutaki might be underrated. Can come to hand quickly in preps and trial was a pass mark for sure leading into this.
(10) Altermatum showed enough in Victoria and well placed by leading stable. Trailled on the polytrack at the GC and looked very good in preparation for this. Wide gate not ideal but can still win with a good ride early.
Not much between #6 and #10 for me.
Selections:
(6) Now Is The Hour
(10) Altermatum
(4) Southern Charm
(8) Aitutaki
Suggested Bet: Quinella 6 and 10.
Race 4:
(5) Pasima is one of the most improved we have. Has won all three runs at the GC this prep and now goes on a road trip. Sits near the speed and gets chance again.
(6) Koruto is a rising 9yr old but the last couple have been good enough to win this. Usually spots them a start and that won’t help in a slow tempo mile.
(7) Nails Murphy was too far back two runs ago but ran 2nd best L200m and solid. Last start was too close to a hot tempo but was best of those on speed. Nock rides, 54kg and can sit behind speed and get every chance this time out.
Selections:
(7) Nails Murphy
(6) Koruto
(5) Pasima
Suggested Bet: Win (7) Nails Murphy
Race 5:
Fair to say (3) Esjay is in career best form. Sits on speed and has a good jock taking 3kg off. Looking for a hat-trick and don’t mind the fact he’s on the back up.
I had been loving what (6) Seneschal had been producing but the last start effort has me wondering if he’s been up too long now? Best runs are landing in the first three settling and that’s his chance again here.
Don’t like the race (12) Silver Wedding comes out of but all you can do is win. Also fitter now and in the countries best stable. Have to respect.
Respect any money for (9) Grey Ice but it may need the run. See what the market does.
Selections:
(3) Esjay
(6) Seneschal
(12) Silver Wedding
(9) Grey Ice
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6:
$175k to the winner and this field gets dished up. A heap come through maidens. Firm track might sort a few out too.
(2) John Dory and (3) Matias bumped into each other two runs back in a maiden at Canterbury. John Dory just too good there. He went on and ran 2nd here last start while Matias went on to win a maiden at Newcastle. Both leading chances.
(1) Tambeloa was 4th in the G1 over 2000m at Randwick late Oct. Freshened and solid 3rd in Midway company last start. Fitter and placed in a winnable race here.
(6) Agent Zero only broke maiden status in a low race last start but has improved each run this prep and makes me feel like this stable has timed the prep for this. Also like being on speed and being the one they have to catch.
Not sure what to make of (11) Bird Whistle. Looks to have good upside and was solid in a G3 last start. Watch the market. (12) Nightline beat John Dory last start but was $41 there and well beaten the run before.
Selections:
(6) Agent Zero
(2) John Dory
(1) Tambeloa
(3) Matias
Suggested Bet: Just small e/w (6) Agent Zero because of the stable and big price.
Race 7:
Map just seems important here if we are on a firm track. (1) Grafterburners, (2) Damien and (13) Sylph are all leading chances who seem to land in the first 5 settling and advantaged.
The toppy (1) Grafterburners is one of the best in Qld and is 2/2 this prep. Dominant win on a firm 2 track resuming and maps perfectly to get every chance. Only a photo in it to (2) Damien who was brave in the latest race at Doomben. Nothing between them there and should be similar here.
Is the fillies form as good? I underrated (13) Sylph last start. She travelled well, let down strong and just missed on the line. Looks a good one in the making and draws great.
(10) Icarian Dream is an honest filly who has run well in better races. Carried 1.5kg more than Sheza Alibi and ran 4th to her last start. Terrific formlines.
The unknown for me that I have time for is (8) Spanish Treasure. Don’t sell short.
(11) Shenandoah River comes through easier races but has a great action, is a ‘winner’ and market always a good guide with this stable.
Selections:
(13) Sylph
(1) Grafterburners
(10) Icarian Dream
(2) Damien
Suggested Bet: Too even for me.
Race 8:
Well I thought (2) Rockribbed was under the odds last start but got the cash. Only better placed here fitter and leading on potentially a leaders track.
(3) Oughton always needs runs to get fit. Efforts have been good and ready to win now. If you can make ground he is value, otherwise might be tough ask.
(6) Accredited draws to potentially box seat here. He is rock hard fit and not far off in G2 and G3 races lately. Sure to look the winner at some stage and the stable is going well.
(9) Anamecore going as well as ever but doesn’t look to map like it will suit today.
Selections:
(6) Accredited
(2) Rockribbed
(3) Oughton
Suggested Bets: Not for me. Looks a lottery.
Race 9:
(2) Walsh Bay has won 7 of her last 8. Impossible to knock. Likes the track, likes firm ground and kept fresh for this. Does creep up and weight but doesn’t take on stars here.
(1) Manzioce is impossible to follow but has some class. Been getting lapped but is fitter now.
(4) Yet He Moves is super consistent and in career best form. Lacks a bit of class but this race is not very strong overall. (8) Felix The Scat may need one more run but a firm track will be a positive and could surprise a few.
Selections:
(2) Walsh Bay
(4) Yet He Moves
(8) Felix The Scat
Suggested Bets: No bets
Race 10:
Very interesting here. (6) Bossed Up has had a huge prep and loves this track (3:2:1:0). Patient ride from midfield last start and burst through late to win. Always been a 1000-1100m horse but this trip doesn’t worry me with him. Just needs a good ride early and not spot them too big of a start.
(5) John Rambo has always had big wraps but hasn’t always run up to market expectations. Would rather the cut out of the track but nothing would surprise with this horse.
(10) Dream Smart should be outclassed but she only has 52kg, races on speed ad trial in blinkers was good.
(1) Hatchet has class but also has 61.5kg.
Selections:
(6) Bossed Up
(10) Dream Smart
(1) Hatchet
(5) John Rambo
Suggested Bets: Small (6) Bossed Up
