Summary of Best Bets:
Suggested bet: Race 3 No.2 Flying Mikki – Can go well fresh and at this track.
Next best: Race 5 No.6 Tobikko – Impressive debut run off a tough position, can rise through the grades.
Value bet: Race 7 No.4 Full Of Courage – Should appreciate this track/distance set up.
Best bet: Race 8 No.1 Enuff Seduction – In strong form this prep, gets a similar set up to suit from his last win.
Turf Talk:
- Expecting clear conditions race day and expect the meeting starts on a Good 4, with a small potential of an upgrade due to warm weather.
- The rail will be out slightly and be +3m 900m-400m, True Remainder.
- With this track set up the track should play fairly, perhaps a slight advantage to runners who can find cover in the run.
Stats that matter:
- Victorian trainer David Noonan has only ever had 5 runners go around her at Murray Bridge but has big success in those small numbers. 2 winners from those 5 runners at a big POT of +117.1%. One to keep an eye on here as he brings 4 runners to the track.
- Apprentice Caitlin Tootell continues to ride in hot form with 16 wins in her last 100 rides, she has returned a POT of +37.1% in those 100 rides and has previously performed well here at Murray Bridge with a POT of +20.5% at the track.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Competitive race kicking off todays meeting with some crossing form lines.
(5) I Catchem Fox was well supported last weekend but ended up finishing 2nd behind (2) Snoopy Now. He may be better suited today at this bigger track and can hit the line hard again with a weight swing on (2) Snoopy Now.
(2) Snoopy Now did win nicely last week and it signalled return to form after a fall last month. He rates highly in this grade but needs to give weight away to others here which is the small risk.
(4) Entrusting drops back in distance after a disappointing run last time, his better form places him well here and he should be suited on the big track.
In the small field it looks likely that (1) Bamyan Buddha gets the lead position which could be his advantage if he can control the race tempo
Selections:
(5) I Catchem Fox
(2) Snoopy Now
(4) Entrusting
(1) Bamyan Buddha
Suggested Bet: No bet, staying out of the small field
Race 2:
Victorian visitor (1) Thailess has mixed form of late but will drop in grade for this today and maps to be in a positive position with a likely moderately run race, gets every chance to improve.
(3) Angel Torque has been good in three runs so far this prep and remains in a similar grade. She impressed when winning a recent trial in the lead up to the resumes run off a freshen up and she generally performs well here at Murray Bridge (5:3-0-0).
(6) Yoomee Wonder is another Victorian visitor crossing the border for this today, she hit the line nicely last start and remains at the same distance range but may appreciate the big open track.
(7) Chillcuz broke through for his maiden win two starts ago before a solid run in a similar grade last time, can be a good light weight hope with the right run close to the front.
Selections:
(1) Thailess
(3) Angel Torque
(6) Yoomee Wonder
(7) Chillcuz
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3:
(2) Flying Mikki resumes and looks well suited here fresh, he has a good record when 1st up into a prep (4:2-0-1) and has won previously when travelling to this track, he gets back in the run and generally hits the line strongly so is suited here with the big open spaces.
(4) The Sprinkler resumes, he goes well here at Murray Bridge and particularly over this distance, he generally takes a run into a prep to find his best but a recent trial suggest he will resume in good order.
(7) Tripod Terror ran into the placing when resuming and should be fitter 2nd up for this now, he gets in light at the weights here with a positive race map which appears ideal.
(3) Riche D’amour has mixed form of late but generally performs well here at Murray Bridge so could be an improver on recent form.
Selections:
(2) Flying Mikki
(4) The Sprinkler
(7) Tripod Terror
(3) Riche D’amour
Suggested Bet: (2) Flying Mikki WIN
Race 4:
(5) Teardrop Rotation was a good winner when resuming defeating some in form runners to win there. She appears to get a good set up in this on a track that should suit so suggest she can progress again.
(8) Beauty Rising appears to be at peak fitness now for this race 3rd up, she has been solid this prep with no real stand out run yet but expecting with a softer run this time she can go close.
(7) Headphones loves going around on his home track and has won here 6 times previously, she is hard to discount when she gets to this track so look for her to hit the line strongly late.
(1) Belthil comes into this race freshened after he contested a strong Country Series Final during Cup Week, this is easier and previous to the final he was a winner defeating the in form I Catchem Fox, he looks suited back down in grade today
Selections:
(5) Teardrop Rotation
(8) Beauty Rising
(7) Headphones
(1) Belthil
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5:
Hard to not be taken by the debut performance of (6) Tobikko, he probably got too far back from a wide barrier on debut but was strong through the line running the fastest L600m, 400m and 200m of the entire meeting. He is drawn better here today and should appreciate the bigger track, is definitely short in the market but looks hard to beat and capable of rising through his grades next.
(3) Norheim showed improvement last time when getting to this bigger track and could again be better suited up in distance today, expect he will be hitting the line strongly again.
(10) Carpe Astra makes her debut here today and has looked handy in 2 recent trials, she is drawn wide which might make it tricky but is one to follow.
(8) Bardigrub looks the likely leader of the race and could pinch some soft sectionals early in what looks a race likely to have a moderate tempo.
Selections:
(6) Tobikko
(3) Norheim
(10) Carpe Astra
(8) Bardigrub
Suggested Bet: (6) Tobikko WIN
Race 6:
Differently to a few other races on this program today with moderate tempos, this race looks likely to have a few runners vying a position on speed. If the speed is hot early that could set up (4) Falaise to be running over the top late and given how he has been hitting the line of late, the rise to the 1800m will suit.
(7) Wild Winner has been consistent so far this prep and looks ready to rise in trip, her assignment could be made easier with a light weight and a soft race map.
(1) Rainbow Delight ran 4th in what was likely a stronger race when resuming, he previously hasn’t shown much when 1st up into a prep and will be fitter here 2nd up today, looks a likely improver.
(2) Surprise Coming has mixed form in his recent runs but has contested stronger country cup races, he could be an improver here today at a track he has previously had winning success at.
Selections:
(4) Falaise
(7) Wild Winner
(1) Rainbow Delight
(2) Surprise Coming
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7:
(4) Full Of Courage blew his rivals away when winning at this track in a lower grade two starts back. Next start when up in grade he looked like he probably left himself too much to do late on The Parks track so think he can be an improver here back at the bigger Murray Bridge track and up to the 1600m trip.
(7) Extinguish won well last time when well supported and this race looks a similar level for him, the wider barrier might make it slightly trickier early but if he can find a position quickly, he can go close again.
(10) Saint Boom has found strong form since winning at this track earlier in the prep, needs to take a step up in grade for this but he looks likely to appreciate this track/distance set up.
Victorian (8) Bookman comes here in good form off the back of two wins; he can race in a prominent position from barrier 3 and threaten late if he gets a soft run up on speed.
Selections:
(4) Full Of Courage
(7) Extinguish
(10) Saint Boom
(8) Bookman
Suggested Bet: (4) Full Of Courage EACH-WAY
Race 8:
(1) Enuff Seduction has looked good in two runs this prep with a win and a 2nd. Both times he was well supported in markets and again looks well suited here staying at the 1000m trip 3rd up. He rates highly so has a big weight, but the in-form Caitlin Tootell takes a handy 3kgs off his back.
(3) Caladan comes out of our SA blackbookers having performed well in two recent trials, expecting a big run from him fresh but may have just run into one here who is in super form, (3) Caladan is worth following through this race.
(4) Daisydoo resumes today coming in here off the back of a recent trial win at this track, she has won 1st up previously so expect she will be in good order 1st up here.
(8) Major Rumble was a winner at this track on debut before contesting some stronger races to finish his debut campaign, if he has had any improvement since a break, he can go close.
Selections:
(1) Enuff Seduction
(3) Caladan
(4) Daisydoo
(8) Major Rumble
Suggested Bet: (1) Enuff Seduction WIN
Race 9:
(8) Stolen Kiss showed good improvement when hitting the line strongly last start, off the back of that run she looks likely to appreciate rising to the 1400m and the bigger track, just needs luck from the wide barrier.
(5) Hysterical Lady was the winner of the race (8) Stolen Kiss comes out of as well, she also should appreciate rising in distance but previously has flattened out slightly 2nd up so likely needs to find improvement for this run.
(1) Speedtail has been knocking the door down for a win with two recent placings, this race is a slight drop in grade for him, but he needs to overcome a wide barrier to find a good position.
(9) Press Express needs to rise in grade for this race, but she has previously run well here at Murray Bridge (8:2-3-1) so she could find improvement on a track she goes well at.
Selections:
(8) Stolen Kiss
(5) Hysterical Lady
(1) Speedtail
(9) Press Express
Suggested Bet: No bet
