Summary of best bets:
Best: Race 7 No.5 Yoomee Wonder
Turf talk:
- Ararat is a track with a short home straight that generally advantages horses on speed.
- 1200/1300m starts are the best on the course, with a nice run down the back straight into the home bend.
- Track has been racing particularly well for Ararat this summer. Bit of recent rainfall around should’ve only helped.
Key stats:
- Linda Meech is definitely a jockey you want to be finding today. 19% from her last 100 but 21.4% across her career when riding at Ararat. Her front-running style is perfect for this circuit.
- Will Gordon is another reliable, in-form hoop going at 20% from his last 100 rides, beating market expectation with a PoT of 31.2%.
- Teo Nugent was flying for a few months but has struggled a bit in recent times, going at 6% from his last 100 rides at a PoT of -42.2%. He’s a talented hoop who has a few good rides today.
- Lindsey Smith has his stable going well, striking at 20% from his last 100 runners saddled up.
- Matt Cumani is at the opposite end of the spectrum going at just 6% in recent times, at a PoT of -33.9%. His strike rate when bringing horses to Ararat is 20%.
For a full preview of today’s Ararat meeting head to the Tipping Hub. Click here.
Race 2
Doesn’t look a lot of speed and on what we’ve seen three key chances (11) Wild Ruby, (10) Where’s My Sock and (9) Silver Maid will all likely drift back.
Think (1) Alvin can kick up off the pole draw and lead for Linda Meech and from there he might prove hard to catch. He went off the boil a bit last campaign but the best of his form is up to winning a Maiden like this. Has trialled quite well for the new stable.
(11) Wild Ruby is set to peak third-up and she was good at Echuca last start.
(10) Where’s My Sock can be hit and miss at barrier rise but if she jumps cleanly then she’s capable of using gate two to advantage. Good run first-up at Swan Hill, albeit not sure on the depth of that race and she got to the right part of the track. Big winning chance but market hasn’t missed her.
(9) Silver Maid has trialled up OK for her debut and Harry Coffey riding is a plus.
Suggested bet: Backing Alvin 1×3 EW
Race 5
Like (2) Hydrogen Power. Looked all over the winner 200m out at Swan Hill but was gobbled up by a couple that got into the better ground. Tighter track suits. Leads from gate four. Ready to win now third-up.
Zac Moore has had several rides on (1) Il Cielo so his 4kg claim can prove most valuable here. Got a dream run at Geelong last start when toughing it out to win. Fit, consistent and in a suitable race, just has a slightly tricky map to overcome.
(5) The Daily Planet had a lovely run at Geelong and just lacked that killer blow late. Maybe 1400 to 1750m found him out late. Meech knows him very well and he should get a reasonable trail. Backs up in nine days and some of his best runs have been on quicker turnarounds.
Suggested bet: Backing Hydrogen Power, saving Il Cielo.
Race 7
Suspect only gate one can beat (5) Yoomee Wonder. She is racing really well in stronger company and has a bit on these talent wise. Query is she’s a moderate beginner who will likely be three pairs back the fence but provided Johnny Allen can navigate her into clean air late she should be winning. Think she’s a good gamble at $3.10.
(4) Sabertooth gets blinkers and a tongue tie after disappointing at Pakenham last start. Tongue tie suggests they are on top of an issue and from gate five he’s going to get a lovely run on speed.
Was disappointed with (2) Warparty who was backed off the map first-up for the new stable at Ballarat before having every chance.
Suggested bet: Backing Yoomee Wonder
