Turf Talk:
- Track has come up a Soft 7 after recent rainfall but with fine weather it should only improve.
- Light southerly winds won’t impact racing.
- Ararat is a track with a short home straight that generally advantages horses on speed.
- 1200/1300m starts are the best on the course, with a nice run down the back straight into the home bend.
- Track has been racing particularly well for Ararat this summer and with a bit of sting out of the ground, I don’t think it will be a savage on-speed advantage.
Race 1
Totally forget (3) Corro went around first-up at Ballarat. He settled leader’s back – supposedly the box seat – and then never saw daylight. He had trialled nicely leading into that first-up run. Like that Linda Meech sticks, suspect she will push forward on this bloke today and from there he will prove awfully hard to beat.
They rode (11) Wild Roses Grow more aggressively last start, so expect her to press forward from gate three. She stuck on well at Kilmore most recently in a race that has already produced a subsequent winner and she doesn’t need to improve off that to be in the finish here. Jason Warren has his stable going quite well in recent weeks – think he has a nice hand today.
The favourite is (8) Aradeo. I can see why the market likes her. She comes out of easily the strongest form reference. She was held up at Sale on debut and gave the impression 1200m would suit. A few negatives that make me struggle to get her price near $2.70: trials prior to her debut were fair at best, she isn’t the best beginner and will likely get back here, and she didn’t exactly “ping” once clear last time out. Can absolutely win, just think she’s unders.
Suggested bet: Keen to back (3) Corro / (11) Wild Roses Grow
Race 2
Jason Warren has a great chance again with (15) Weasel Sea who makes his debut. His jump-outs in January and February have been excellent. He has good natural speed that should see him in the early firing line and with three jump-outs this campaign should be cherry ripe for the 1100m on debut. Harry Coffey in the saddle is a plus – he knows Ararat well.
Always had an opinion of (5) Villa Capitalista. He was good first-up at Ballarat and this is certainly no tougher. Little step to 1100m ideal and should get a nice run for Declan Bates.
(2) Silver Snow can run well for Holly McKechnie. He was given as quiet a trial as you’re likely to see at Great Western to prepare for this and form through his last campaign is good enough to figure in the finish.
Selections:
(15) Weasel Sea
(5) Villa Capitalista
(2) Silver Snow
Suggested bet: Backing (15) Weasel Sea
Race 3
Moderate Maiden.
Keen on (12) Charlecote Mill. Had absolutely no luck at Seymour when first-up for the Koumis stable (formerly with Bjorn Baker in NSW). Liked how she worked through the line in a recent Geelong jump-out between runs, draws a nice gate here and strikes a very winnable race. Step in trip is a plus and sting out only a positive for her.
Selections:
(12) Charlecote Mill
Suggested bet: Backing (12) Charlecote Mill – she should be favourite
Race 5
Plenty of speed on paper.
(6) Over The Edge is working up to a win. Has been slow out in each run this campaign but with Meech jumping on today expect to see him closer in the run. He had no luck at Horsham last start and with clear running probably figures in the finish. Step to 1300m looks ideal and like him in a race of genuine tempo.
(2) Bancoora refused to compete at Kyneton first-up, settling many lengths off the last horse, but despite Linda Meech not asking him to do anything in the run, he still got past a runner and was making late ground. He’s way down in class here and had trialled nicely leading into that return run. Over the odds at $10.
Suggested bet: Like (6) Over The Edge. Having something (2) Bancoora at $10 as well.
Race 8
(2) Marty McFly, (10) Simply Sassy and (11) Tangoette went around in the same race at Ballarat last start and that looks the key form reference for today’s race. Simply Sassy beat the other two home there and she was also first-up off one soft jump-out, so suspect she’s open to good improvement. Maps for a lovely run just off the speed from a good gate and think she deserves to be favourite.
Tangoette was also first-up in that same Ballarat race but she’d had two jump-outs and I thought had a pretty soft time of it on speed. Will again roll forward and give them something to catch and Meech knows her well.
Suggested bet: Backing (10) Simply Sassy
