Turf talk:
- Rail goes out 10m having been in the 3m position most recently.
- It looks like we will be playing on a Good track for the first time in a while! This is crucial as most of the recent form heading into this meeting is one wet decks – we could see some significant turnarounds.
- Light winds should give horses on speed their chance.
Key stats:
- Clint McDonald does a great job placing his horses, which shows in his strike rate: he’s going at 25% his last 100 runners (PoT 26.9%).
- Jabez Johnstone is completely airborne. 14 winners from his last 50 rides, 28 from his last 100. Will be interesting to see if he can maintain that level as the big-name jockeys come back into town!
- Lachlan Neindorf is a rider performing below the high standard we’ve become accustomed to. He’s had four winners form his past 50 (-78.1% PoT).
Race 1
(2) Black Run leads form (6) Our Chief and they should set a reasonable tempo.
A lot of these horses have been running well on wet tracks and probably don’t have the same credentials on top of the ground.
(5) Nearco Frod has gone bang, bang, since the off-side blinker went on, which has rectified his desire to lay out. His last two wins have both been good and while he technically rises in grade, I don’t think this is much stronger, and he gets weight relief for the privilege.
(8) Shultzy seems a big price at $11. He was strong form the tail two back behind Nearco Frod and has since dropped back in garde and won. He’s a horse that goes just as well on top of the ground as he does on soft going, so the switch to a dry deck is no concern.
(6) Our Chief is going to give a great sight on speed ad the O’Brien stable is flying. But, reckon that 3yo staying form is pretty moderate and this is a decent step in class for him getting into open company.
(5) Nearco Frod
(8) Shultzy
(2) Black Run
(6) Our Chief
Suggested bet: Backing Nearco Frod, something small Shultzy as well.
Race 2
Doesn’t look an overly strong 3yo race. But it does look tough to sort out and I cover off on most runners here.
The raced brigade has shown talent, without doing anything remarkable, which opens the race up to a debutant. (11) Santa Barbara has shown good ability in her jump-outs, especially her most recent hitout where she was let of the chain late, winning by a space, running good time. Not sure how much of the 3kg Emily Pozman will claim here but she’s going to get in with ~52kg, getting a good deal of weight off those up the top. Think she will be in this a long way and looks a big price.
(4) Covert Action ran very good time winning on debut at Cranbourne and he looks to have good talent. Staying at 1000m suits and think he can improve again off that run.
(8) Hearts Affair looks to have really improved into her second campaign. Dominant winner at Kembla Grange first up and ran very good time over the 1000m. Rarely a bad strategy backing Gai and Adrian in with their 2yo’s and think this filly will be in the finish.
(3) Rubare is deep into a campaign but she continues to race well. Hasn’t seen the straight since her debut when well beaten by Eurocanto back in the spring, but she has trialled down the straight and moved well – so has had enough exposure.
(2) Rebel Tuesday has been consistent to date and thought she ran well her one exposure to the straight. Has to carry plenty of weight under the scale of the race but has trialled OK and has the runs on the board.
(5) The Troubleshooter was quite good on speed behind Riverina Lulu in what looked a much stronger 2yo race last time out. He had only had one soft jump-out leading in, so should be open to good improvement.
(7) Almontego copped a check at a crucial stage in that same race behind Reiverina Lulu – he’s also in the mix.
The Hayes-trained (1) Eurocanto debuted a winner over Streisand down the straight before failing to measure up in the autumn. Has been gelded. Trials have been ‘fair’., but nothing that I could back him off.
(11) Santa Barbara
(4) Covert Action
(8) Hearts Affair
(7) Almontego
Suggested bet: Maybe something small EW Santa Barbara in a very open race.
Race 3
Seven of the nine come through a race at the same track/distance won by St George.
In terms of the different form, well hope lies with (5) See That Storm. He is desperate to get onto a Good deck, which it looks like he’s going to get. He didn’t go a yard on a heavy deck at his Australian debut and was only getting warm at the end of the mile in the Winter Championship Final last start; his work past the post was good. 2000m is ideal, he’s drawn for a nice run and if he can recapture his UK form he will be winning this.
Thought (2) Glory Daze ran well in that event. He gets a nice bit of weight relied with Jackson Radley taking over and he should enjoy a ripping run in transit.
(4) Star Of India has been in two Flemington runs either side of a Caulfield failure. Been up a long time and won’t have any improvement to come, but even holding his rating he will be in the finish.
The toppy, (1) Smokin’ Romans will again push forward and be in this a long way.
(5) See That Storm
(2) Glory Daze
(4) Star Of India
(1) Smokin’ Romans
Suggested bet: Keen See That Storm getting back onto firmer ground.
Race 4
Sheesh, this is bloody tough. Speed looks strong.
If they can make ground, (4) Darkbonee can change at them late. He’s going to get out over further as the campaign unfolds but he looks to have come back in good order. Had two very soft jump-outs on bog tracks before the winkers went on (which he wears on raceday) at Caulfield when he won a 1000m trial. Going to get a mile back form the wide draw, but a strong tempo should enable him to get into it late.
The toppy, (1) Kahhof was well backed before winning with authority at Sandown last time out. Gets up in the weights but after the claim is only 1.5kg over the minimum, dropping in grade! Maps for a lovely run.
A key chance here is (18) El Trecero who is currently third emergency. Always shown a degree of talent and is starting to deliver on that. Gets a gun run for an in-form jockey.
(10) Surreal I Am needs to translate his form from synthetic to turf, but he’s been racing very well. Hard fit and can sustain a strong gallop on speed.
(1) Kahhof
(4) Darkbonee
(10) Surreal I Am
(18) El Trecero
Suggested bet: No thanks.
Race 5
(3) Lovelycut has had seven-weeks between runs but looks to have freshened up nicely judging by her Traralgon trial, where she went locked together with Arkansaw Kid.
Getting to 1400m and onto firmer footing are both positives for (2) Stealth Of Night. She resumed over 1100m and was always going to find that a bit sharp/need the run, but she ran well enough. Her three wins outside of maiden grade have all been at 1400m and she’s a mare that does her best work racing up on speed – which she will do from gate four on Saturday. Handy claim for an in-form Jackson Radley gets her in well at the weights.
(8) Stage ‘N’ Screen is ready to win now third-up, getting to 1400m. Got too far back at Sandown last start but was strong through the line. Can settle much handier up in trip, going from gate eleven to gate two. Logan Bates knows her well and should ensure the ideal run in transit.
The toppy (1) Silent Shares was totally dominant at Sandown last start having run well in the Leilani Series Final at this track and trip the start prior. Spots them a fair start from the wide gate.
(2) Stealth Of Night
(8) Stage ‘N’ Screen
(3) Lovelycut
(1) Silent Shares
Suggested bet: Backing Stealth Of Night/Stage ‘N’ Screen – like the race.
Race 6
(10) Touchdown is the horse to beat, but he’s very short at even money. Super run first up at Sandown. Better suited out to a mile and Shinn takes over. He’s a real talent and the ratings through his last campaign stack up here. That said, I can’t get him any shorter than $3 so it would be irresponsible to tip him.
Give (11) Angland a good E/W hope. His soft track record reads 8-2-0-0 but those two wins were both on pretty slick Pakenham decks, so misleading. He’s best on top of the ground, which he gets on Saturday. He was unlucky not to finish closer in a strong BM100 last time out and now drops notably in grade. With Jordan Childs back in the saddle, getting to a mile, suspect they roll forward and ride him positively. Great E/W bet at $23.
(9) Kaleo is racing well, with his one recent failure being when he had EIPH. Maps for a dream run in transit and has the hugely valuable 3kg claim of Jabez Johnstone.
Think (17) Castle On High is going very well. Sticky map from the wide draw, but can run well with even luck in running.
(11) Angland
(10) Touchdown
(9) Kaleo
(17) Castle On High
Suggested bet: 1×3 EW Angland
Race 7
Blake Shinn jumps back aboard (1) War Machine and I think he can mark his first day back in the saddle with a Group 3 win. He didn’t come up last campaign, pulling up lame first up before failing to fire in the Newmarket. He resumed last spring in the Gilgai and produced a blistering finish to win that. He carried 60kg in that Gilgai so don’t think the 60.5kg will worry him (his rating having some down a few points last campaign). His recent jump-out was good enough. The knocks are two-fold: has he bounced back to his best after the poor campaign and gate one, which is rarely ideal down the straight.
(3) Star Patrol is a ripping straight-track horses and at his best would prove mighty hard to beat. He has had his issues in recent seasons, but has been given a very deliberate lead-up to this with four jump-outs under his belt, so doubt fitness will be an issue. He has jumped-out well enough and on the strength of his Gilgai third to War Machine is right in the game.
(5) Ndola had his birthday in the Santa Ana Lana last time out, being afford a farcical lead speed (15L below standard to the 800m mark!) before dashing up the last 400m. This is stronger and he couldn’t possibly get such a favourable race shape again, but he does love the straight and has trialled well between runs.
(1) War Machine
(3) Star Patrol
(5) Ndola
(2) Arkansaw Kid
Suggested bet: Happy to watch.
Race 8
(10) Sass Appeal gets in very well with 51.5kg after the claim for Logan Bates and she’s going to take a stack of running down. Produced a huge rating in winning the Kewney at the back end of last campaign, belting Salty Pearl who went on to win the VOBIS Guineas at her next start before being placed in Group 1 company. The start prior she easily accounted for Ole Dancer, who was placed in the Group 1 Surround Stakes at her next start. Now, the challenge is for her to take the step into open company, but this looks a lovely race for her to kick off a winner. Jump-outs have been good, she will lob on speed without doing any work and the 1400m is her sweet-spot.
(3) Craig hasn’t done a lot of racing of late, clearly having a few issues as evidenced by a 53 weeks spell prior to his last campaign. Didn’t come up in summer, but he has trialled nicely this time in and resumes in blinkers here, which signals some intent. His second’s in the Sandown Stakes and Toorak Handicap underline his talent. Think he can run a race fresh.
(1) Coeur Volante continues to rise in weight but she deserves it – she keeps winning! Shouls get a reasonable tempo to suit and will be strong late.
Challenge for (11) Ten Commandments is to bring his wet-track form to a dry deck, which he hasn’t been able to do throughout his career. That said, he’s a different horse since joining the Maher stable, so maybe this time in he can adapt better, but irrespective there’s no doubt he’s a many lengths better horse on wet decks.
(10) Sass Appeal
(3) Craig
(1) Couer Volante
(7) Duchess Zou
Suggested bet: Market has found Sass Appeal. Don’t need to be betting here.
Race 9
Plain race to finish the meeting.
Can understand why (11) Just Like Gaby has come up so short. She gets in very well after Jabez’ claim, she has jumped-out well enough and she may still have a bit of upside. She’s run well fresh in the past and is drawn ideally out in gate 11. The knock, for mine, if the end of 1100m, and that’s a big enough query to question her current value.
(10) El Pibe De Oro has been largely kept to 1000m across his career and his best form is on synthetic tracks but loved his run here over 1000m last time out and it seems the right time to try 1100m again. Firm track is in his favour and he’s drawn very well out wide.
(8) Charmed Run gets the blinkers on for the first time and I think she can run well. Was forced to make her run closest to the inside rail down the straight last time out, which didn’t suit. Draws wide here, which is ideal.
(10) El Pibe De Oro
(8) Charmed Run
(11) Just Like Gaby
(9) Per Sembre
Suggested bet: Small plays on El Pibe De Oro/Charmed Run
