In The Lab: Racelab unpack the 2026 Australian Guineas at Flemington

Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the Australian Guineas using their ratings system to assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this year’s race. 

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In The Lab | Australian Guineas | Group 1 3yo 1600m

The track – unique features of Flemington 1600m course, advantages PIR/barriers:

• Good 4. Rail Out 2m. Partly cloudy
• Settling midfield with cover is the most profitable
• On speed horses are disadvantaged losing at 18% ROI 
• Barriers 4-7 are performing best with a 10% strike rate
• Inside two lanes are historically inferior

Speed map & tempo:

The tempo appears moderate with Observer likely setting the pace:

Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:

• Simon Zahra and Thomas Stockdale have a 30% POT with a S/R of 15%
• Ciaron Maher and Ben Allen are going well with a S/R of 21% and POT of 11.9%

Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:

This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Australian Guineas. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried, margin spread and race quality.

Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Australian Guineas:

Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win.

The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below:

The ratings/market:

Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price.

The verdict and betting strategy:

Field of ten runners in the Australian Guineas. I don’t think they will go too hard here with Observer likely to take up the running. Seems like a race in two which the market has picked out. Under set weights, Observer gets in very nicely as a 107 rater after winning the Autumn Stakes. Planet Red is the closest with a rating of 98 and would normally be getting 4.5kg off Observer. Sixties is a 3yo on the up and will appreciate the extra ground. He carried a decent weight in the CS Hayes, sat wide and finished off strongly. My main concern with him is the tempo may not suit. Planet Red seems under the odds and the rest are up sharply in grade. I’m siding with the class runner Observer.

Suggested Bet:

Observer (Top Fluc)

Legend: