Bring it on! Betsy’s experts have their early say on the showdown between Autumn Glow and Sheza Alibi

It’s the mouthwatering clash punters thought might not happen – or if we we’re lucky, much later in the spring.

But the stars seem to be aligning with the superstars of Australian racing – Sheza Alibi and Autumn Glow – looking increasingly likely to face off in the Group 1 Winx Stakes at Randwick on Saturday.

It was always the expectation the Sheza Alibi would begin her campaign in the Group 1 Memsie Stakes at Caulfield on Saturday instead.

The two have previously never clashed, with Sheza Alibi’s last win was the Doncaster Mile in devastating fashion.

The Peter Moody trained star’s spring looks likely to be Sydney based now, with the newly minted Group 1 Golden Eagle worth $10 million her likely Grand Final.

The champion trainer previously indicated that Sheza Alibi’s campaign would also be dictated by a hit-out on Tuesday morning. Going by the video he posted to social media, Moody was happy.

Sheza Alibi Tuesday 18/08 pic.twitter.com/mjpdAc53np

— Peter Moody (@moodyracingpgm) August 17, 2026

The spring of Autumn Glow remains to be seen, with speculation the three time Group 1 winner could even find herself taking on Ka Ying Rising in The Everest.

What we do know is her trainer Chris Waller will decide her campaign post Saturday, but her races will wont include a trip back to the 2000m where she tasted her only defeat of her marvelous career to date.

So if the duo to compete, who wins?

Betsy’s experts have their [early] say.

Dean Watling

Christmas has come early for racing fans as the clash everyone has been waiting for may be on. Peter Moody has indicated that they will accept with Sheza Alibi to take on the stare mare Autumn Glow. Who wins the race? @deanwatling pic.twitter.com/7ysydoTqYI

— Betsy (@betsy_com_au) August 18, 2026

The clash of the spring rivals is on our doorstep, with the first Group 1 of the season, the Winx Stakes, set to draw the gun Victorian filly Sheza Alibi up the Hume Highway to take on Autumn Glow.

$1.60 Autumn Glow (57kg) and $2.40 Sheza Alibi (56.5kg) is how the market stands as of Tuesday afternoon – all In, of course, and courtesy of TAB.

Where do I stand? The market looks to have it right. Albeit Sheza Alibi dominated the G1 Doncaster, Autumn Glow has the far superior 1400m and first-up figures on the board. It wasn’t until the third and fourth runs last prep that we saw Sheza Alibi go into that “special” range.

No doubt barriers will come into play once final fields come out, but those barriers don’t mean as much for the more tactically versatile Autumn Glow.

The final piece of the puzzle to think about is the jockeys. I know my money is on James McDonald to get it right here first up. That’s no knock on Luke Nolen, but of the two, McDonald is the clear pick.

Mouth-watering clash, and the reason all racing fans love this game. Bring it on.

WATCH: Autumn Glow win the Apollo Stakes first up in the Autumn

Matt Welsh

So, the dream rematch is on. Sheza Alibi vs Autumn Glow. And it’s before spring has even officially dawned.

What a treat this Winx Stakes promises to be. But who wins?

First things first, Sheza Alibi is likely to spot Autumn Glow a start. She also steps into weight-for-age company for the first time, having had a huge weight advantage under the handicap scale in her Doncaster demolition.

WATCH: Sheza Alibi win the Doncaster

That said, this now-mare seems to be improving with every start and she has upside on Autumn Glow in her favour.

Both mares have prepped up beautifully. Autumn Glow has been given the typically soft Chris Waller trials, while Sheza Alibi looked especially sharp winning her latest jump-out, without the blinkers that really set her alight in the 2025 Vanity Stakes. She hasn’t looked back since.

But will Moody and Coleman opt for the blinkers first-up, or save them for later?

It’s a mouth-watering contest. Australia’s two best horses going head-to-head before spring has even arrived. And, of course, there’s always the possibility something else upsets the apple cart.

The barrier draw and final field will play a huge part in how the race shapes up, but at this stage I reckon Autumn Glow has a slight edge at 1400m. She has superior ratings at the trip in her locker and, tactically, is likely to have a head start on Sheza Alibi in the run.

There won’t be much between them, but for now, it’s Autumn Glow by a nose.

Matt Collum – Racelab

Autumn Glow, the one to beat

Autumn Glow returns as one of the standout mares in Australian racing, having been unbeaten before finishing third in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. The 1400m first-up looks an ideal starting point, allowing her to use her tactical speed and sharp turn of foot without immediately stretching back out over the longer distances.

From a ratings perspective, she probably needs to run 105.5+ first-up to win. Her past three performances have rated 105 in the Queen Elizabeth, 109 in the George Ryder and 107 in the Verry Elleegant Stakes, so she has already established the level required. She is unbeaten first-up, back in her ideal distance range and well suited under weight-for-age conditions.

Sheza Alibi, the danger

Sheza Alibi produced one of the performances of the autumn when charging away to win the Group 1 Doncaster Mile by 4.3 lengths, overcoming barrier 16 in the process. That followed a dominant Randwick Guineas victory by more than three lengths, further underlining both her class and her liking for Randwick.

She probably needs to run 105+ first-up, having rated 108 in the Doncaster, 109 in the Randwick Guineas and 106 in the Armanasco Stakes at her past three starts. If she returns anywhere near those peaks, she has the ratings profile to seriously test Autumn Glow, although now a four-year-old she needs to prove she can reproduce those performances against the older horses without the benefit of significant weight relief.

TAB All-in market for Saturday’s Winx Stakes