Bairnsdale Best Bets: Matt Welsh’s strategy for Tuesday’s Victorian meeting

Note: Additional selections might be added once scratchings are finalised. Make sure you download the Betsy app to get the latest information direct to your phone: 

Race 1

(7) King Tagaloa is the likely leader and he should prove mighty hard to run down. He led them first up at Seymour before knocking up the last 200m to run second. Look, that wasn’t the strongest maiden of all time, but Bossy Boy who finished alongside him has since won (an even weaker maiden). He should only strip fitter and I suspect will be better on slightly drier ground (assuming it hasn’t rained by this stage). Bairnsdale lends itself to on-pacers.

Suspect (1) Ask The Captain will run better than his odds suggest. He’s a big boy that is best suited striding forward. His runs on drier ground have been better than his recent form on heavy decks and a trial between runs was solid work. Big price at $26.

(10) Pride Of Mandy has the blinkers off so assume they are going to try ride her a little quieter. She faced a stiff breeze when leading and giving a good kick at Ballarat two back (leaders struggled all da) before going around in a much stronger maiden last time out. This is much easier, but will need luck form gate one.

(11) Steal Away risks being three back the pegs from gate two but with eve luck in running she’s in the mix. Hit the line strongly at Moe last time out.

Suggested bet: Backing King Tagaloa. Small bet Ask The Captain at a big price. Quinella 1,7,10.

Race 2

Anthony and Sam Freedman return from their 28-day disqualification with (11) Jourana. She has been OK in two runs two date and has a lovely map here, but sheesh, she seems short now at $1.90. That VOBIS Showdown she contested was a pretty thin race and I thought a recent Caulfield jump-out was just fair. Can absolutely win, but too short.

(10) Graffitude has jumped-out nicely for Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr ahead of this debut. 1200m suits, but will need a good ride from the draw.

Reckon (2) Comradeship is over the odds. He can be a touch slow so like him drawing off the fence as he musters quickly. His racetrack form is as good as any in the race and his trials have been solid. Little knock is he has been up a long time and had several jump-outs, indicating a potential setback along the line, but the flipside of that is he should be nice and fit for the 1200m first up.

Give (13) Karumba Girl a hope at big odds. She has run some half-decent races across her career and a jump-out between runs was excellent. Best run of her career came here at Bairnsdale.

Suggested bet: Something on Comradeship/Karumba Girl to beat the two favourites.

Race 3

(10) Oxley Tycoon has been gelded and resumes with earmuffs after over-doing it on debut at Pakenham when sent around $2.90. He has trialled nicely leading into this, a flashy looking gelding who is still quite green but has a lovely turn of foot. Don’t think tight turning tracks will be his go in time but think he can get the job done here.

(9) Millionaire Lover went too hard on debut at Seymour. Has a good aggressive rider in Jason Maskiell in the saddle and will take catching.

(3) Azzuri Queen trialled nicely prior to a strong debut at Moe. Good speed drawn underneath so will need a creative ride, but has upside and won’t be a maiden long.

(11) Isle Of Mona has jumped-out nicely ahead of her second campaign and should be strong late.

Suggested bet: With even luck, Oxley Tycoon will take a stack of beating.

Race 6

Apprentices only race and there looks to be good speed. (7) Pro Velocity should camp just behind said speed and she will be strong at the end of a mile. Spent plenty of time in restricted room first up over an unsuitable 1400m in a stronger race at Pakenham. Ran OK there, but much better suited out to the mile today. Best form is clearly good enough to beat this lot. Synthetic hoof filler coming off an added bonus. Concern would be if the rain had arrived by this stage as don’t think she wants it too wet.

(3) Bank Heist is going to get a lovely run just behind a good tempo. He beat three subsequent winners this track and trip, big gap second back to third. Took a while to break his maiden, but think he can go on with it now.

(8) Almago is probably the best horse in the race. Always had a bit of time for her and don’t think she was in the best part of what was a very ‘laney’ track at Sale first up. She hadn’t had a jump-out leading into that and went straight to the 1746m. The little knock is what does Bailey Kinninmont do form the wide draw – she’s going to need a good ride early.

Suggested bet: Backing Pro Velocity (so long as the track is still in the Soft 5/6 range by this stage) and Bank Heist (irrespective of track condition). Quinella 2,7,8.