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Andy Win in action at Warrnambool (Credit: Racing Photos)

Andy Win in action at Warrnambool (Credit: Racing Photos)

Mitch Ellis’ Grand National Day Preview: Best bets for Ballarat’s jumps season finale

Mitch Ellis tackles the final jumps meeting of the season at Ballarat, with his best bets, value plays and race-by-race preview headlined by the 4500m Grand National Steeplechase.

Mitch Ellis by Mitch Ellis
August 15, 2026
in Tips
Reading Time: 4 mins read
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We head to Ballarat for our final jumps meeting of the season, and what a cracking card we have. Big fields in five of the six races, and we’re certainly not lacking in quality. It’s sure to be a grand finale to the jumps season.

The track is rated a Heavy 10 as of Friday. Drying conditions over the next two days give us some hope that it may improve a touch, but I would still expect it to be playing in the heavy range.

The last few years, however, Ballarat has played very fairly on heavy surfaces, and you can win from any position in running.

Race 1 – Maiden Hurdle – 3250m – 11:55am

1 – BOLD SOUL – Clear top pick. Strong flat credentials, recently winning the Flemington Cup. 2 hurdle trials suggest he’s ready to run well on jumps debut.

2 – KHOR – Main danger. Excellent flat form, including a fourth in the Warrnambool Cup and a recent BM84 win. Encouraging jumps trials, he’ll run well.

6 – TURNTYNE – Trialled well and looks capable of handling the transition to the jumps. Place chance.

7 – FLYING WITNESS – Going okay, this race is a lot easier then what he’s been contesting. Can run a place at big odds.

Suggested bet: Bold Soul (Win)

 

Race 2 – Maiden Hurdle – 3400m – 12:35pm

3 – GRIPPING – Four placings from four hurdle starts this campaign, including a solid latest effort behind Split at Sandown. Looks well placed to finally break through.

8 – SUNDAY BUZZ – Been just okay in his last two. His run over the May Carnival behind Andy Win on a heavy track was good enough to win this. Will get another heavy surface here and can bounce back to form.

10 – ZIKRON – Has shown he handles heavy ground, and his hurdle trials have been very encouraging ahead of his jumping debut. Tom Ryan a great booking.

1 – BISMARK – Good jumps trials and comes off a BM56 win at the Ballarat Synthetic. Fit and brings plenty of upside.

Suggested bet: Tough race. Small play GRIPPING, value in taking (1,3,8,10) boxed trifecta.

 

Race 3 – Gotta Take Care Hurdle – 3600m – 1:15pm

1 – SPLIT – Has been excellent all campaign and comes off a dominant six-length Sandown win. The 76kgs is the main concern, but his current form is hard to ignore.

2 – EMBEZZLER – His Grand National Hurdle run was terrific given the strength of the opposition. Back into easier company, he looks capable of running a big race. BEST VALUE

4 – ZOOM – Can improve on last week’s result against Thurmond. The extra 100m and heavy conditions both positives. Quick backup is the query.

3 – THURMOND – Won well last week and showed a good turn of foot. Runner up was closing late on him however.

Suggested bet: e/w play EMBEZZLER

 

Race 4 – JJ Houlahan Hurdle – 3250m – 1:55pm

1 – THE CUNNING FOX – Champion hurdler last season who returned brilliantly in the Brendan Dresler a month ago. The weight scale is favourable only conceding 4.5kg to the first-season hurdlers. Looks very hard to beat. BEST OF THE DAY

3 – UNTETHERED – Appears to have the measure of Flashlight and should relish the heavy ground. The small field will make tactics important. The up and coming challenger.

2 – BITCOIN – His recent flat form has been solid enough. His hurdle win at Warrnambool last season showed he has genuine ability. Can run well on jumping resumption.

4 – FLASHLIGHT – Has shown plenty of ability, but needs to bounce back from a disappointing effort last week after being pressured in front.

Suggested bet: THE CUNNING FOX (win)

 

Race 5 – BM120 Steeplechase – 3250m – 2:35pm

2 – CHARLIE MESSY HAIR – His recent jumping form is good with a win and a second from his last two starts. Looks well placed to produce another big run in this competitive little field.

3 – FIERCE FLIGHT – His Hamilton run on a bottomless surface was strong behind good opposition. The Grand National Hurdle field was simply too strong for him latest. Back to a suitable heavy-track assignment, he can bounce back.

4 – RAISE THE NOTE – This is easily the weakest race she’s faced for some time. Her best form has tapered off, but she had a month between runs and performed nicely in the Crisp. Capable of getting back into the finish here.

6 – GOONDIWINDI – Forget the margin from last week, he’s capable of improving at peak fitness. The stable looks to have found a suitable race, and Tom Ryan on is a good booking.

Suggested bet: NO BET

 

Race 6 – Grand National Steeplechase – 4500m – 3:15pm

7 – MR LINCOLN – Was flying home late when only beaten a nose in the Crisp, the extra 300m should play in his favour. At the current price, he looks the standout value of the day. BEST ROUGHIE

2 – ANDY WIN – The star hurdler of the season after winning the Grand National Hurdle. His quiet steeple trial should have brought him on for the big fences, and there’s no obvious concern about 4500m. Big chance for the double.

4 – HIT THE ROAD JACK – Excellent May Carnival form, finishing second in the Brierly and Grand Annual, before a strong third in the Crisp. Heavy ground and the marathon trip will both suit.

Suggested bet: MR LINCOLN e/w

 

Day’s Betting Summary

Best Bet

  • Race 4 – #1 The Cunning Fox

Best Roughie

  • Race 6 – #7 Mr Lincoln

Best Value

  • Race 3 – #2 Embezzler

 

Early Quaddie

  • R1: 1
  • R2: 1, 3, 8, 10
  • R3: 1, 2
  • R4: 1

Main Quaddie

  • R3: 1, 2
  • R4: 1
  • R5: 2, 3, 4, 6
  • R6: 2, 4, 6, 7
Tags: Ballarat jumps tipsBallarat tips SundayGrand National Day BallaratGrand National Steeplechase tipsMitch Ellis tips
Mitch Ellis

Mitch Ellis

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