Summary of best bets:
Best bet: Race 7 No.4 Diamanda
Best value: Race 2 No.11 Snakeinthegrass
Two-bet play: Race 5 No.11 Trak Chiller, smaller No.8 Montjuic Magic
Turf Talk:
- Well known the Stony Creek is a tight-turning track that generally favours those on speed. Short home straight and a sharp home bend both mean covering ground can be tricky.
- Barriers can play a part, but tactical speed is the key element around Stony Creek.
- The 1100m start is out of a little chute down the bottom of the back straight, they have a reasonable run of 400m or so before they start the sharp home bend.
- The mile start also comes out of a chute near the bottom of the home straight and they have plenty of time before hitting the first turn.
Key stats:
- John McArdle is going at 24% from his last 100 runners saddled up.
- Jason Warren strikes at 35% with a PoT of 49.5% when he brings runners to Stony Creek.
- Both Teo Nugent (13 winners from 73 rides) and Bailey Kinninmont (5 winners from 22 rides) seem to ride this track well.
Race 2
This isn’t a strong Maiden.
(11) Snakeinthegrass makes her debut for the Gelagotis stable and she seems to be right in the game here. Three jump-outs at Pakenham across summer have all shown ability. Two very soft hit-outs where she just ambled along in behind the first couple over the line before a more serious jump-out at the end of January, where she went nicely near the speed. Draws ideally to put herself in the early picture and with a good grounding she can prove most competitive on debut.
Suggested bet: Backing Snakeinthegrass 1×3 EW @ $10
Race 5
Suspect they go quick here. (11) Trak Chiller is flying since joining the Harrison yard and she clearly has a liking for the Stony Creek circuit. Relished a strong tempo to win at this track and trip last time out. Strong tempo looks likely again, which should suit her, and from a better draw she should settle handier. Jackie Beriman has ridden this mare six times for two wins and only once missed a hole, so knows her well. With even luck, she will be in the finish.
(8) Montjuic Magic is also over the odds. She was going very well prior to having a torrid run in transit last start. Prefer her at 1100m than 1000m and she’s a track and trip winner at the end of December. Has the gate speed to push across from the wide draw and can sustain a decent gallop.
(12) Zoubelle is down in class and has the talent, but she can be weak at the end of 1000m, which does hold some fear for the 1100m.
Suggested bet: Backing Trak Chiller, something smaller Montjuic Magic.
Race 7
(4) Diamanda is airborne. She is ideally suited dropping from 2080m back to a mile here. She will roll forward and make her own luck up on speed in a race there doesn’t look to be a huge amount of pressure. She went out 7.8L above standard to the 800m mark at Cranbourne last time out so to hang on and run third against much stronger opposition was enormous (horse sitting second who chased her to the bend was $5 couldn’t get near her). Up in weight, but meets far inferior opposition today. I can get her as short as even money, so very happy to take the $2.50 on offer.
Suggested bet: Backing Diamanda @ $2.50
