| Race | Horse | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| R10 | Cifrado (Best Value) | Keen to bet E/W at the $23 on offer |
| R7 | Uncommon Valour (Best Roughie) | Big price at $23 |
| R2 | Shelstien (Best Value) | Gets every chance from a good map |
Turf Talk:
- Rail True.
- It is very hard to keep moisture in this track. With extreme weather predicted, it may be very firm and some horses will simply not handle the conditions. It is always a big advantage if horses have a good record at this track.
Stats that matter:
- Unexpected stat with the Gollan stable: only 4 winners from the last 50 runners and an ROI of -67%. Does the run continue, or can he break the trend?
- Chris and Corey Munce have them running through brick walls at the moment – striking at 26% from their last 50 runners and an ROI of 63%.
Race 1
2 year old first starters. Market always the best guide in these. Best of the trials were (1) Courthezon, (3) Dream Roca and (4) Lady Of Five might have been the best of them all. Won two trials by big spaces and was electric out of the gates. Mum was quick and she looks hard to beat. Birchley is as good with juveniles as anyone in Qld. (3) Dream Roca got blinkers latest trial, shook up on the corner and went like a rocket. Looks hard to hold out. (1) Courthezon trialled down south and was strong through the line winning recent trial. Leading stable has picked this out for him.
Selections:
(4) Lady Of Five
(3) Dream Roca
(1) Courthezon
(6) Run Like A Girl
Suggested Bet: First Four — 4 / 1,3 / 1,2,3,6 / 1,2,3,6
Race 2
(4) Ouroboros has won or placed in 10 of 12 and in a very good stable. Maps on speed from the good gate and gets every chance. Has carried weight well in the past. (6) Shelstein has good ability and is a consistent type. Got the job done last start against easier opposition. Maps well and another who gets every possible chance. (9) Alectrona looked home for all money but somehow found a way to get beaten last start. Exotics chance again here. (7) Simply Excels, (5) Runwiththetide, and (11) Ellibaby can all win without surprising in a good race.
Selections:
(6) Shelstein
(4) Ouroboros
(9) Alectrona
(7) Simply Excels
Suggested Bet: Even race, small e/w (6) Shelstein $7.50
Race 3
I was keen on (7) Indy Rose Warrior fresh but she didn’t finish off and must have needed the run. She can improve 2nd up but her record second run back doesn’t read well (6:0:0:0). (5) Chamierro didn’t look a chance last start with 150m left but the stable is in ridiculously good form and they all seem to find a way at the moment. Looking for a hat-trick and some hope. (13) Rock The Sunrise meets that horse 1.5kg better off for a half-length defeat. Peaks this run and doesn’t mind the track. The others mix their form too much for me. (12) Arabian Rose was a big winner last start. Has upside but surprised she has opened fave.
Selections:
(13) Rock The Sunrise
(5) Chamierro
(7) Indy Rose Warrior
(12) Arabian Rose
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
Liked what (1) Ha’penny Hatch did last prep and the first two runs this prep have just been a pass mark. Crossover goes on, 3rd up and Rodd takes the ride. (4) Sweet Pretender was the 2nd best L200m in the Toowoomba race and 1400m on a big track suits. Think she has some upside and is well placed here. Off the fresh run, (5) Worthy Enuff looked like an upcoming winner. Well supported last start and went like a mule. Hard to trust off that but has the ability to win. (2) Voodoo Lass has won two in a row and might be the next best.
Selections:
(1) Ha’penny Hatch
(4) Sweet Pretender
(5) Worthy Enuff
(2) Voodoo Lass
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
Another very competitive race and the market will tell us a lot. (1) Certified Copy might be the best horse in the race but does have the 60kg leveller. Doesn’t know how to run poorly and will be there late. (2) Manpower landed good bets last start at the GC and looks for the hat-trick here. Takes a 3kg claim and just needs a good ride early from the apprentice. (5) Bourbon County showed ability last prep and looks a sharp improver this prep. Loved the recent trial and maps perfectly from the inside draw. Gollan has three; respect the one they back. Hate the weight, but opening $9 means Certified Copy might be the value.
Selections:
(1) Certified Copy
(5) Bourbon County
(2) Manpower
(4) Royal Mover
Suggested Bet: Small e/w (1) Certified Copy
Race 6
(2) Viminele is a bloody good horse on his day but hard to assess. Gelded this prep and fresh run was awesome. Stayed in the gates and then plain trial. Blinkers come off and a win wouldn’t surprise. (4) Aldolfito has been really good without winning recently. Very good late splits and just need to know if you can make ground on this firm track or not? (8) Lady Lucifer has won her last two by decent margins. This is harder again but impossible to knock winning form. 5, 6, 7 all have speed and can be in the finish if they don’t overcook it up front. (7) Express Payment might be the best of those mentioned and worth serious thought in exotics.
Selections:
(2) Viminele
(4) Aldolfito
(8) Lady Lucifer
(7) Express Payment
Suggested Bet: 1×4 (2) Viminele
Race 7
Don’t trust many of these. Not convinced (3) Valimi is that good but has been better since heading north. Will be on speed and look the winner at some stage for sure. (4) Canberra Legend mixes form but went from Waller to Robl, $17 into $11 and improved out of sight last start. No idea what he will produce here but a repeat of that would nearly win. (5) Uncommon Valour had nearly a year off and has needed the runs. Looked the winner last start but fitness gave way. Can improve again here 4th up. Not convinced (13) Victory Flame should be fave but all the scratching’s will help it’s cause.
Selections:
(5) Uncommon Valour
(4) Canberra Legend
(3) Valimi
(13) Victory Flame
Suggested Bet: Small Win bet (5) Uncommon Valour
Race 8
(6) Walsh Bay is flying and the only people going better are the trainers. This stable’s stats are near unbelievable lately. First time at 2000m in the Toowoomba Cup and won by 3.1L. Best L400m and 200m of the race too. Out to 2400m not too big of a concern off that and loves a firm track. (2) Our Anchorage has just been average but in better races down south, will find this easier. I expected more of (8) Queen Air last start but Toowoomba can bring them undone. 4th up for Gollan here, Thompson takes over and 53kg on the back. (10) So You Are is on the back-up off a win last week, Dolan rides and no weight. Can be in the finish.
Selections:
(6) Walsh Bay
(8) Queen Air
(2) Our Anchorage
(10) So You Are
Suggested Bets: Win (6) Walsh Bay $3+
Race 9
Absolute lottery. (10) Fukubana has a bit of class and good upside. Trials good but just worried this may be too firm at this time of the day. (2) He’s Heaven is an underrated horse and they are persisting with the apprentice even though a senior might help. Not sure what they do from the gate but he’s a chance. Probably another half a dozen that could win and not surprise. (4) About To Explode was airborne before the Toowoomba run and more than happy to put a line through that run and forgive.
Selections:
(10) Fukubana
(2) He’s Heaven
(4) About To Explode
(16) Street Chase
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 10
Very even race to finish the day and nothing would surprise. Most of these come through the Weetwood in Toowoomba. (6) Tavs won that by 4.5L and was in a different race to the rest. He’s a good horse but I don’t think he’s that good. Meets them 3kg worse at the weights but the others have to improve a lot to turn the tables. (1) Cifrado and (3) Exotique Miss have class and could improve sharply without surprising. A lean to Cifrado of those; he’s better than these on his day. (12) Warby brings a weaker formline but a massive drop in weight and fitter now.
Selections:
(1) Cifrado
(6) Tavs
(3) Exotique Miss
(12) Warby
Suggested Bet: e/w (1) Cifrado $23
