Turf Talk

• Rail in the true at Ballarat generally favours runners on speed.
• Strong northerly/north-westerly winds are forecast, blowing into their faces out of the spring chute and around the home bend. Monitor any impact.

Race 1 – No.5 Enamorada

Punters found this 4yo mare as soon as markets went up. Lethal jockey-trainer combination with Ethan Brown going at 23% his last 100 rides and this combo (Bedggood-Brown) going at 27% (50% when they team up on favourites). This mare looks to have been hidden in jump-outs, allowed to settle out the back before showing a degree of ability in how she hit the line. She started her career with Lindsay Park and showed talent in Flemington jump-outs and looks to have come on well with Bedggood. This isn’t the strongest race, but even still, I want $4.50+ to be playing. (11) Tanana has jumped-out nicely and can run as race, as well.

$4.50+ I’d be happy to have something on (5) Enamorada.

Race 2 – No.4 Faith In Zadar (E/W)

Think the bolter – (4) Faith In Zadar – has a chance at huge odds. She has jumped out well on a couple of occasions and maps for a soft run on debut. At $35, can have something small each way. (2) Catwalk Icon jumped out nicely before striking a heavy track on debut. Brings a strong SP profile and can bounce back getting on top of the ground. (6) Gisella comes through the same race and beat Catwalk Icon home – both runs this time in have been good.

Small each way — (4) Faith In Zadar at $34.

Race 3 – No.11 Queen Christine (E/W)

This is an unbelievably strong race. Don’t love the draw for (11) Queen Christine, but they jump from a chute here, so no massive issue. She has jumped out very well several times and has been well educated for this debut. She’s professional and should acquit herself well. Massive odds at $27. (4) Ludlum has trialled nicely for the Begg stable – the flashy grey won her last jump out, responding to riding late to beat a handy one in Espana. (13) Tres Magnifique clearly has talent and a nice turn of foot based on her jump outs. The concern is she can over-race, so Shinn’s task is to get her to settle. He’s had a sit on her, so he should be awake to it. (6) Neverenoughlego has also shown talent both in races on in recent jump-outs leading into this campaign.

Something small each way – (11) Queen Christine at a big price ($27).

Race 6 –  No.8 Keepsake

(8) Keepsake is a mare I’ve always had plenty of time for. She was heavily backed in early markets prior to her debut in a handy Caulfield race but got it wrong there. She then dropped back to maiden grade and belted a very strong field at Ballarat – that race has produced a stack of subsequent winners. She has had a long break, which is the query, but she has jumped out brilliantly. If she’s anywhere near right, I think she wins this. $3+ looks attractive.

Keen – (8) Keepsake. $3+ looks a great price.