Betsy’s Best: Ballarat

Turf Talk:

• Rail +9m having been 5m last meeting, where the track raced well
• Think backmarkers get more chance as the rail gets off the true at Ballarat
• Expect it to play reasonably fair, but as always adjust as the meeting dictates.

Ballarat Race 1 No.7 Regina Dei Re

This mare showed good ability in three runs last campaign. She didn’t have a lot of luck on debut at this track and trip in a race that produced reasonable form going forward. She was again held up at a crucial stage at Werribee at her second start, before producing the best last 200m split of the meeting. The most compelling factor is her two trials this time in: they have been most sharp and in good time.

Scratching of Nic The Cash this AM has crushed Regina’s price. $1.80 is short enough.

Ballarat Race 7

Concede (11) Odessa has a good hope here with the blinkers going on but think she’s too short. Her two wins were both by big spaces on the Ballarat Synthetic – a track that produced several big margin wins this season, in my opinion owing to significant kick back. She had excuses last start, but was still plain and she has been up for a while now – enough reasons to think she is unders at $1.75.

(8) Head And Heart interests here. He’s a big boy, so not 100% enamoured with gate one. However, he showed good ability last campaign and loved his recent Wangaratta jump-out where he gapped a slick trial horse in Direct and posted fast time for the morning. He jumps the gates OK, so worst case he should end up on the leader’s back, and provided clean air can certainly outperform his 20/1 odds.

(7) Exuberance is the other horse I want on side. She was back to the inside first-up at Sandown, which wasn’t where those chute races were dominated. She just peaked on her run the last 100m, running a moderate last 200m, which suggests she should derive good fitness benefit. That has already proven a strong form race with a couple of winners to come from it, and she is drawn for a nice trailing run here.

Suggested bet: Backing Exuberance and Head And Heart to knock off the short-priced favourite.

Ballarat Race 8 No.2 The Grumpy Bear

The Grumpy Bear drew out and went back first-up at Kilmore, which cost him victory. He was a mile off them at the bottom of the hill before reeling off the best last 400/200m split of the meeting to get close to Marilyn’s Edge. He draws better today and can use that good gate to settle near the speed, and up to 1200m should prove incredibly hard to beat.

Suggested bet: Backing The Grumpy Bear