Turf Talk:
- First meeting at Ballarat since Cup Day in early December, so fresh patch of grass. Jump-outs were held away from the fence recently.
- South-westerly wind is an assisting wind for those on speed.
- Big spacious track with a lovely 1200m sprint chute.
- Always default to giving those in the first four an advantage at Ballarat, especially on fresh ground. It can be difficult to make ground.
Key stats:
- Linda Meech is the leading hoop at the meeting. She’s going at 20% from her last 100 rides. Her frontrunning style is suited to a track like Ballarat.
- Lachie Neindorf is in hot form having ridden six winners from his last seven rides, the other finishing second!
- The Freedman and Maher stables are both in form, going at 23% and 22% respectively from their last 100 runners. Great going for bigger stables.
- Cliff Brown hasn’t taken many horses to Ballarat in recent times, but he goes at 27.8% when he does.
- The Hayes boys have a great strike rate at Ballarat, hitting at 22.1% from a decent sample size. PoT of 22.4% suggests they’re going better than market expectations.
Race 2
Good Maiden.
Coming out of the chute here with wind at their back, so not too worried about the wide draw for (2) Bel Mezyaan. He showed great ability at the trials before his Sandown debut over 1000m. He was strong late there behind the talented Trapper John and last night’s dominant winner, Headbanger. The step to 1200m is absolutely perfect. The in-form Lachy Neindorf takes the ride – which is a plus at the moment. With even luck in running, he’s the horse to beat.
Always had a good opinion of (12) Wild Ruby. She has trialled up nicely again this campaign. Has had her chances before, but should get a nice run in the race and 1200m is ideal first-up.
Suggested bet: Backing Bel Mezyaan/Wild Ruby
Race 4
Check out THE TRIAL FILES’ preview of race four
Race 7
The best of (16) Solar Mist would see him in the finish. He has had five starts for the Kelly yard and showed he was in good form early in the campaign before having an issue coming out of the gates at Stawell two back. He was six weeks between runs at Warrnambool last start, but never got warm. He has since been back to the jump-outs and I thought went quite nicely there. His best ratings would win this race, he’s drawn well and he’s worth a small bet at the double figures.
(14) Simply Outrageous is the horse to beat. She is still on the up. Form early last campaign was good. She hit the line strongly in a recent Werribee jump-out. Will need horses to be able to make some ground, but if that’s the case then she will be strong late. 1400m ideal first-up.
Suggested bet: Backing Solar Mist/Simply Outrageous.
