Some fairly moderate racing at Donald, but the maidens certainly pique my interest. Keen to play early and think there’s plenty of value in the opener.
Turf Talk
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Suspect with the track a firming Good 4, it will be no disadvantage to be nearer the speed.
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The 1350m start is probably the best on the course, with a long run down the back straight into the sweeping home turn.
Race 1
Think there are three key chances here: (2) Calusa’s Fury, (7) You Said What and (15) Villa Capitalista.
Working around the early favourite (1) Bakersbend, whose last trial was a concern and I think is under the odds.
You Said What had absolutely no luck on debut at Warracknabeal and I’d go so far as to suggest with even luck she wouldn’t be eligible for maiden grade. Don’t mind the wide draw as she’s probably going to drift back anyway, but expect her to charge late.
Liked the trial of Calusa’s Fury leading into this campaign. He has had a long spell, so may need the run, but the jump-out would suggest he’s a much better chance than his $23 odds suggest.
Villa Capitalista got back at Casterton on a day you needed to be on speed and hard fence. He had no hope after they’d gone 200m. The step to 1200m is ideal and he had trialled nicely leading into that debut. Suspect from a good gate they will be more forward.
Betting Suggestion: Backing (7) You Said What and (2) Calusa’s Fury primarily at odds with something (15) Villa Capitalista to ensure he’s a winning result. Playing exotics around this trio, too.
Race 3
Speed comes from (11) Madesian, (10) Emperor Tzu, (6) Miss Solar Hart.
Like (7) Oraqua here. She has moved from Chris Waller to Mitch Freedman since she was last at the sports and her jump-out at Kerang leading into this was solid. Her run two back at Geelong when second to Dubai Watch – who has since won twice – is excellent form for a race like this. She will settle midfield or beyond but be super strong late.
Liked the latest trial of Madesian at Cranbourne.
Emperor Tzu will make his own luck up on speed but may have to work a touch early and has had his chances – he looks under the odds for mine.
Betting Suggestion: Backing (7) Oraqua. Saving on Madesian.
Race 6
(7) Gargantuan and (4) Quizlet can press forward from wider draws. (2) Count Ida should get the best run you’ve seen, right behind the speed.
Count Ida has come back a better horse this campaign. He had a good spell leading in and jumped-out nicely before two handy seconds at Wodonga and Wangaratta. Like that he was able to take up a forward spot stepping to 1300m last time out, that should ensure he gets a gun run here. This is a most moderate race and I’d be surprised if he isn’t in the finish.
If there is a danger, I think it’s (8) Haather who is going better than the form suggests. Has been hampered by kickback at Ballarat in both starts this campaign, getting to a turf track is a plus.
Betting Suggestion: Backing (2) Count Ida, smaller (8) Haather
