Turf Talk:
- Plenty of warm weather in Victoria should see Echuca nice and firm
- Rail True, warm day, suspect the inside should hold up, especially early in the card
- No disadvantage to be up on speed
The Stats That Matter:
- Celine Gaudray is going at 21% from her last 100 rides at a PoT of 41.4% for the punters.
Race 1 No.5 Brilliant Beagle
The Beagle looks a terrific E/W bet at $8. There has been merit to all three starts. She had no luck on debut at Benalla in a strong maiden. She produced the second-best last 400/200m split of the meeting when running second at Gunbower in a maiden that has produced a little form already. Then, she was taken off course in the straight at Albury last time, unsuccessfully protesting against the winner. Think the 1300m is worth a go now at peak fitness and off gate one she should bounce right on speed.
Suggested bet: Brilliant Beagle E/W @ $8.
Race 2
Frosted In Time missed the kick at his first two starts but then a senior took over and was able to get him out of the stalls at his third start. The form through his first campaign is superior to his rivals today. Drawn ideally Cory Parish should be able to get him into the first 4-5 in run, and from there he has superior talent to his rivals.
Smugglers Spot was like a drunken sailor on debut at Wagga, hanging out towards the outside rail in the home straight. He may well have been in the finish if not for his poor behaviour. He has jumped-out nicely between runs, draws well here and reverts to the Victorian way of going – if he improves his manners, he will be in the finish here at a good price.
Suggested bet: Backing Frosted In Time and Smugglers Spot
Race 6
Like this race. Backing Oceans Above and Privalova.
Oceans Above’s best recent rating is a first-up win at Pakenham over 1400m last campaign. That was a BM64, defeating Lady Potato Head – if he can produce anything like that here then they won’t see which way he went. His trials this time in for the new stable – now with Reece Goodwin – were very similar to what he produced leading into last campaign. The key will be horses being able to make ground at Echuca today – if they can, he should be awfully hard to beat.
A senior going on Privalova, an aggressive senior in Meech at that, is a big plus. She can get right up on speed here third up, having had little luck in either start this campaign. She still has a bit of upside whilst most of her rivals have found their mark.
Suggested bet: Backing Oceans Above and Privalova
Race 7
Good deal of speed here.
Like Intriguing State. He has been flying since joining Kasey Wilson’s stable. He should get a lovely run from gate two, just off what looks a hot tempo. Thomas Stockdale has ridden him in all four starts this campaign, so knows him well.
Give Shelly’s Legacy a hope at big odds. He gets the blinkers on for the first time and drops in grade off a luckless run at Benalla first up. His debut win at Corowa was pretty good last campaign and like a senior jockey taking over here.
Suggested bet: Backing Intriguing State and Shelly’s Legacy
