Turf Talk:
- Rail is out 3m the majority of the track. Good 4, should only firm up as the day goes on unless forecast possible showers arrive.
- Kilmore has a downhill run as they head towards the home bend, it can be tricky with several horses not handling it. Good form at Kilmore is valuable.
- Momentum is key, you can make ground but need to be doing so around the home bend.
Race 1
Very weak maiden.
Speed comes from (3) Flight Sergeant and he may well be the best value runner in the race. Had a ‘bye’ on debut at Pakenham last campaign but has been gelded this time in and a recent jump-out at Colac was good. Not surprised there’s been a bit of early support – think he starts shorter than the $10 on offer.
(6) Harmony was OK on debut at Ballarat and should be able to use the inside alley to be right on speed while (7) She’s Got The Cash debuted in a handy maiden.
(3) Flight Sergeant
(6) Harmony
(7) She’s Got The Cash
(4) Pronounced
Suggested bet: Flight Sergeant the horse that looks over the odds.
Race 2
Strong maiden.
Liked (3) Donato on debut and he didn’t have much luck there at Tatura. That was a handy race and he draws for a gun run here – $8.50 seems value.
(2) Chicago Blues has trialled up very well. He was poor on debut at Wodonga last campaign but it was a Soft 7 and he did go hard in front. Maps ideally.
(5) Catwalk Icon debuted in a strong race on a heavy deck and was then good last time behind Gisella. Little knock is 6 weeks between runs with no jump-out.
(1) Celtics can win but is short enough.
(3) Donato
(2) Chicago Blues
(5) Catwalk Icon
(1) Celtics
Suggested bet: Something E/W Donato
Race 3
(2) Courtier looks big odds in this 4yo+ maiden. He blew the kick on debut at Seymour last campaign so forgiving that. A recent jump-out at Seymour where he jumped better and quickly mustered was excellent. Think he’s got some talent and this isn’t a strong race.
The horse to beat is (3) Frosted In Time. He resumed in a handy maiden at Echuca where he was trapped deep throughout. Step to 1112m is in his favour and importantly he’s had good experience here on his home deck.
(1) Ballistic Blue was heavily backed/unlucky on debut at Cranbourne last campaign. His most recent jump-out was just fair, but has some talent.
(2) Courtier
(3) Frosted In Time
(1) Ballistic Blue
(6) Pull My Finger
Suggested bet: Something 1×3 Courtier
Race 4
Not a strong staying contest.
(4) Dharam Shalaa took a while to break his maiden but he’s always shown some talent. He beat Peeaitchdee at Ballarat, who had run in a couple of handy staying maidens leading up, and there’s already been some winning form out of the race. Drawn the pole, can settle leader’s back, and win again.
(7) Share The Dream interests me at odds. There’s not much speed in this race and the way he was ridden in a recent jump-out suggests he might roll forward first up at 2000m for the new stable. There was a level of intent in that jump-out; suspect he can run well fresh. Big price at $17.
(4) Dharam Shalaa
(7) Share The Dream
(2) Mercante
(5) Larsen Bay
Suggested bet: Could have small plays (4) Dharam Shalaa, (7) Share The Dream, with the latter going for a better result.
Race 8
Can wait and see how the track is playing but if they can make some ground then (3) Thunder Award looks the horse to beat. Had zero luck/probably should’ve won two back at Ballarat and then produced a super finish to win here last time out. Knock is he gets a long way back in his races but there’s good tempo here which should allow him to flow into the race late.
(9) Zemgrinda is the danger. Good first up at Echuca. Will get a soft run and apprentice Emily Pozman knows him well enough now.
(3) Thunder Award
(9) Zemgrinda
(14) Turn Up The Night
Suggested bet: Wait and check pattern but I’ll likely have a decent bet (3) Thunder Award, smaller bet (9) Zemgrinda.
