Turf Talk:
- The fence has been off at recent Kyneton meetings, with those coming towards the centre of the track advantaged.
- However, the rail goes out to the 6m position today and the last time it was here the meeting was abandoned after one race. The most recent meeting in the 5m position played reasonably well.
- This is a momentum track, horses need to be making their runs before the home bend as the straight is short.
- Thee 1450m start is especially treacherous with a bend coming up shortly after the get going.
- The 1200m chute gives a reasonable run into the sweeping home bend.
- Warm day, track should be upgraded to a Good 3 at some point. Looking to horses settling in the first half, ideally mapping to be off the fence, if needed.
Key stats:
- Damian Lane is riding below his normal standard with 8 winners from his last 100 at a PoT of -44%. However, he is lethal at Kyneton, having ridden 19 winners from 69 rides at 27.5% with a PoT of 22%. He has a couple of key rides on Tuesday.
- Linda Meech and Dean Yendall are ever reliable at these meetings, and both have good strike rates form their last 100 rides (21% and 20% respectively).
- Graeme Begg hasn’t been striking at his usual high standards, but he goes at 37% when he brings a runner to Kyneton.
Race 3
A strong race this is not.
(11) Hot Opera looked a chance in a Wangaratta maiden on Sunday but was scratched from a wide gate and the stablemate ended up winning (they knew what they were doing!). Draws ideally here in a race she should be able to press forward and race on speed. Liked her recent jump-out and her only career run was a wet-track failure last campaign. Over the odds.
Either (12) Two Stroke Baby has some ability or she is just a ‘dawn warrior’. Her trials either side of two poor runs last campaign have been very good. Like Hot Opera, she also strikes firm ground for the first time and that could well see her improve big time. In a race where a few have found their mark, think she can figure in the finish.
(10) Ring Annie might be better than she went on debut at Colac. She got a mile back there but was showing green shoots late. Jump-out between runs was good and the blinkers going on could bring about sharp improvement (which she wore in the trial).
Suggested bet: Backing Two Stroke Baby/Hot Opera both at around $11. Also playing a little quinella 10,11,12.
Race 4
(7) The Adige looks to have the best platform to step to the 1887m. He comes out of a super-fast run race at Cranbourne last time out where he stuck on like a horse looking for this trip. He was good late first-up at 1200m prior to that. Like that he has been given 24 days to get over the last run and the blinkers go on for the firs time. Suspect he settles just behind (4) Luigi The Brave and (13) Just My Lot, which should afford him a lovely run in the race.
Suggested bet: Backing The Adige.
Race 6
(3) Snappy Secret is going better than the scorecard would suggest. Didn’t have any luck at a crucial stage at Cranbourne last time out but was strong through the line. This is only the third time in his career he has been to 1400m +, but with a good base of fitness now is the time to do it. He ran second at Sandown, beating El Rocko, his first go at 1400m and the other was against strong opposition at Bendigo when fifth, making late ground out wide on a day you wanted to be hard fence. One run here at Kyneton resulted in a win and the best of his ratings are certainly good enough to win. Danielle Champan also seems to have hit a patch of form, landing two well backed winners at Ararat on Sunday.
(8) Get Honour clearly has upside and she’s one of three rides for Damian Lane on the card. Reasonable debut win but she did get a good run up the inside when needed. Draws out from a tricky start. Can’t get her as short as the market.
Suggested bet: Backing (3) Snappy Secret EW – $14 looks a big price.
Race 7
Like the toppy (1) Sugar Schnapps here. She showed excellent gate speed in two runs prior to coming to Australia and was strong in both, breaking her maiden with a tough on-speed win at Rotorua last start. This is her first run on dry ground on raceday, but that doesn’t look a negative. Her Flemington jump-out was excellent and from a terrific draw she should get every chance with Damian Lane aboard. Surprised she’s not a clear favourite.
Suggested bet: Backing (1) Sugar Schnapps. The $3.50 appeals – think she will start fave.
