Turf Talk:
- Track improved from a Soft 6 yesterday to a Soft 5 today.
- Well documented Mornington is a tighter track with a short home straight.
- Being on speed is rarely a disadvantage.
- The straight has an uphill run that can test horses late, some horses have a liking for the track and others don’t.
- There is between 2-10mm of rain forecast, so that is going to have a big impact on the day.
Race 3
Not convinced Mission Of Joy deserves to be $2.45 here. Has trialled well and comes from a leading stable, but thought others had trialled just as well ahead of their debut.
Give Pure Silk a good hope at $8+. She has good tactical speed and I think she either leads or sits right on speed. She has shown plenty of talent in jump-outs to date and I’d expect her to take some catching. The little concern is she has had several jump-outs this campaign and debuts in a decent amount of gear, which can be a red flag.
Theatrical Queen and Doubtland Diva have both trialled well – it wouldn’t surprise if they a most competitive on debut.
Suggested bet: Something E/W Pure Silk
Race 5
Intimeofneed was trapped deep first up at Kyneton but stuck on OK considering. She got quite keen when crossed at St Arnaud last start and was only nabbed late by a horse that had the saloon passage up the inside. Don’t think this is much stronger and she maps for a lovely run up on speed.
If they are running on then Mystic Vamp has a hope. Would prefer her at 1400m but she was an excellent winner first up last campaign, and she has trialled nicely.
Suggested bet: Backing Intimeofneed, small something Mystic Vamp.
Race 6
Good speed here.
Over Boost certainly isn’t a horse that wins out of turn and his best form these days is probably on the Synthetic. But, he maps for a soft run here, he goes well second up and I thought he was OK through the line despite covering plenty of ground first up at this track and trip. He won’t know himself down in this class.
Scream is the other horse I can have something on. He has a habit of putting in a shocker first up (6:0-0-0) but generally bounces back second up (4:3-0-0). He maps for a soft run right behind the speed, he has won here at Mornington, and I think he can bounce back.
Campari Twist has a great hope and will be in it a long way but is well enough found.
Suggested bet: Backing Over Boost at $16 and Scream at $8.
