Turf Talk:
- Pakenham is one of the best laid out tracks in the country with lovely runs from most starts before they start turning and a long, wide 480m home straight.
- The 1000, 1100 and 1200m races start from a chute off the top of the home straight, so a northerly wind really assists leaders in these races. Barriers are of little consequence as they only have a slight bend to navigate.
- They‘ve wanted to get away from the fence in recent meetings, but track has played well.
- 12mm of rainfall yesterday and last night should really have helped this track, given how much water they’ve had to artificially apply.
- Same +4 rail position as last week – expect them to again get away from the fence.
Key stats:
- Ethan Brown is airborne. Going at 25% form his last 100 rides. He’s a jockey you want to be finding. Has a good book of rides.
- Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr often target Pakenham with good success. Have a career strike rate of 21.3% at this track.
- It’s a long trip from Warrnambool to Pakenham but when Aaron Purcell loads up the float and heads east he does so with good success: 47 runners at Pakenham for 10 winners.
Race 2
(4) Fire Type and (5) Hallowed Halls come through the same race at Geelong and for the life of me I can’t work out why Fire Type isn’t a dominant favourite. This bloke covered plenty of ground and was good on debut over 1200m at Warrnambool when covering a stack of ground around the home bend. He then stepped to 1400m in that Geelong race, did a fair bit wrong, but was strong through the line running third. Importantly, he carried on with it past the post and for mine was clearly superior to Hallowed Halls.
The other winning hope is (11) Naraghi who might have a tactical edge of her two more fancied rivals. A mile first up is s sign on intent with her, she’s drawn to settle right on speed and a recent Caulfield jump-out was solid.
It does look a race in three. I’d have fire type a dominant favourite – as short as $2.25 – ahead of Naraghi then Hallowed Halls – so keen to bet.
Suggested bet: Getting $3.20 about Fire Type – having a decent whack at that. Saving Naraghi who is $5. $40 WIN Fire Type/$10 WIN Naraghi. Maximum pain if Hallowed Halls win.
Race 4
Happy to work around a few of those at the top of the market.
Suspect on the form of the race (11) irreverent comes through at Sandown and she looks to draw a touch awkwardly in one. Plus side blinkers go on for the first time and Moody-Coleman runners can really progress first up to second up. However, seems short enough.
(9) The Benchmark had his chance last time out and wasn’t enamoured with how he wanted to lay in late. Query out to the 1400m, for mine.
One horse that I think will be strong at the end of 1400m is (7) Perfect Link. This debutant has been given two really searching 1200m jump-outs at Cranbourne to prepare for this debut and has been strong through the line in each. Greg Eurell seems to have his horses going OK despite a moderate recent strike rate, and he’s targeted this Future Stars Series with good success since its inception. This looks a set play on debut.
Suggested bet: Backing Perfect Link.
Race 5
Have been taken with the jump-outs of (2) Chiringita who makes her Australian debut. Her UK form is all between 1200-1600m so the 1400m looks an ideal kick off point. She will likely settle off speed but expect her to be strong up then long Pakenham straight. The booking of in-form jockey Ethan Brown is a positive and after the scratching of Damehood it simply doesn’t look a strong race. Market hasn’t missed her by the same token, but I can mark her as short as $2.
Suggested bet: Backing Chingrita
