Suggested bets:
Next best: Race 8 No.1 Gringotts
Value bet: Race 8 No.13 Yorkshire
Best bet: Race 9 No.12 Weeping Woman
Best roughie: Race 10 No.17 Charleroi
Turf Talk:
- Rail True. Expecting a very even track overall, with a slight advantage off the rails and off speed. Lanes 4+ in the straight.
Stats that matter:
- Tom Sherry has struck at an impressive 25.7% over the past 90 days with a positive POT of +54.5%.
- The Matthew Smith stable is one to follow over the past 90 days up to $10 SP, striking at 33.3% with an impressive POT of +58.2%. The stable has been particularly effective with runners first, second and third up.
Race 1:
Cracking start to the program.
Not a huge amount of speed up front and with even luck (4) Hyperbolic should prove hard to beat third-up. Plain fresh but bounced back in a huge way second-up and a repeat of that performance should see him winning.
(1) Fear No Evil is the danger, love this set up, rock-hard fit now off a tick-over trial and should lead.
(2) Bella Montagna is looking for further but gets her chance here racing up on speed from gate 2.
(3) Editing is starting to find form now deeper into the preparation.
Selections:
(4) Hyperbolic
(1) Fear No Evil
(2) Bella Montagna
(3) Editing
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2:
Happy to side with the progressive (17) Lady Olenna second-up. She did a good job chasing the smart Shenandoah River first-up and back to 1000m from a good draw shouldn’t pose any issues.
(15) Madrina maps well, back to country grade and onto a firmer deck suits, with the slight knock being the 1000m.
The market watch is on (8) First Landing, impressive recent Taree trial and should get to the key lanes from barrier 11.
(2) Action King peaks fourth-up and gets a hungry Lloyd in the saddle.
Selections:
(17) Lady Olenna
(15) Madrina
(8) First Landing
(2) Action King
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 3:
Massive field with plenty of chances on paper.
(3) Iron Hawk brings a similar profile, smart fresh effort and unbeaten over the trip.
(13) Oui Oui Oui had to overcome traffic fresh but was still able to win well, another tricky draw but plenty of talent.
(15) Fiorenza should improve second-up off a game fresh run, though the gate again is a hindrance.
Selections:
(3) Iron Hawk
(13) Oui Oui Oui
(15) Fiorenza
(2) Alabama State
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 4:
Strong race with plenty of speed expected up front.
Happy to side with (2) Axius first-up, smart win last prep over an unsuited 1100m and looks much better placed here fresh at 1200m. Soft trial but his work through the line was excellent.
(10) Miss Kim Kar has come up big odds, loved her recent trials and her map here, the query is the 1200m.
(4) Snack Bar was outstanding fresh in a strong ratings race and can improve again with the right ride.
(11) Smashing Time is consistent and rounds out the numbers.
Selections:
(2) Axius
(10) Miss Kim Kar
(4) Snack Bar
(11) Smashing Time
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 5:
The Inglis Nursery is the 2yo feature on the program.
Very keen to side with the unraced, well-bred colt (5) Vatican. The $1.2m yearling responded sharply to pressure in a recent trial before working strongly through the line and gives off genuine race-day vibes.
The market has missed (8) Billecart Blue, who has shown talent in both trials with the latest clearly the pick.
(1) Bohemian Rhapsody was solid on debut down the Flemington straight, with race experience and fitness key.
(2) Elio draws well and should improve sharply off the debut run.
Selections:
(5) Vatican
(8) Billecart Blue
(1) Bohemian Rhapsody
(2) Elio
Suggested Bet: Win (5) Vatican
Race 6:
Average speed expected up front over the 1800m.
Hard to go past the in-form (9) Rotagilla, Clark sticks coming off win number two this prep and he remains at 1800m as the horse to beat.
(4) Sun God went to a new level last time out at Newcastle and a repeat would likely win, the only knock being the gap between runs.
(8) Mr Buster brings winning form and only needs slight improvement to be right in the finish.
(2) Pocketing rounds out the numbers and will need a good ride from the draw.
Selections:
(9) Rotagilla
(4) Sun God
(8) Mr Buster
(2) Pocketing
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 7:
The second feature comes up here over 2400m with limited exposed form at the trip.
Happy to side with (9) Age Of Sail, loved his late work over 2300m at Newcastle.
(10) Hollywood Hero has been heavily backed off strong recent form but the query is the 2400m and at the price he’s a risk.
(12) Speycaster gets a gun run from the draw with Lloyd aboard, peaks fitness and handles wet if rain arrives.
(4) Palmetto is the best wet tracker in the race but is also fine on dry ground.
Selections:
(9) Age Of Sail
(10) Hollywood Hero
(12) Speycaster
(4) Palmetto
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 8:
Cracking edition of The Ingham over 1600m. With 500m to the first turn, wide gates are an advantage. Keen to attack this with a two-bet approach.
(1) Gringotts was exceptional last start at Kembla running towards inferior ground and peaks fourth-up.
(13) Yorkshire was outstanding last start after a cardiac arrhythmia failure first-up and now peaks third-up.
(20) Sabaj is the unknown with a high ceiling and handles wet or dry.
(14) Tavi Time and (3) Estadio Mestalla round out the winning chances.
Selections:
(1) Gringotts
(13) Yorkshire
(20) Sabaj
(14) Tavi Time
(3) Estadio Mestalla
Suggested Bet: Gringotts + Yorkshire WIN
Race 9:
Good speed expected in the Razor Sharp.
(12) Weeping Woman should get the gun run off rails and has returned a 2–3 length better horse this prep. Wet or dry she is well suited.
(3) Barber has been well backed and peaks fitness third-up, likely to get a perfect trail.
(1) Coal Crusher will want the rain to stay away as a firm deck brings out his best, and if left alone in front he’s dangerous.
(10) Brave One is next best with rain aiding his chances.
Selections:
(12) Weeping Woman
(3) Barber
(1) Coal Crusher
(10) Brave One
Suggested Bet: Win (12) Weeping Woman
Race 10:
Tricky end to the program but happy to play (17) Charleroi at the odds. He trialled like a rocket before an eye-catching fresh run over the unsuited 1100m and the jump to 1400m second-up from a good draw suits.
(12) Theblade finally broke through last start and may go on with it.
(3) Yes Lulu was excellent two back and back to a drier track suits.
Selections:
(17) Charleroi
(12) Theblade
(3) Yes Lulu
(4) Bojangles
Suggested Bet: Charleroi EW/ Yes Lulu EW
