Betsy’s Set: Rosehill

The Plan of Attack:

Turf Talk:

• +6m is a tricky rail position – with the rain affected track it should play even with rails in run a solid advantage likely.

Stats That Matter:

• Over the past 90 days Ethan Brown is striking at a massive 29.2% with a positive POT of +38.8%.
• Richard & Will Freedman are the stable to follow over the past 90 days up to $10SP, the team is striking at 17.4% with a impressive POT of +27.1%. They are effective with runners second and third up.

Race 1

(3) Zouripper put up a huge career peak last start in the heavy conditions, he again maps ideally and gets a near identical set up maps wise. (6) Modella has been heavily backed in early markets, she’s trialled up well and brings some impressive figures from last prep. The query is the wide gate. The in-form (10) Against The Law looks well suited now back on a drying deck, peak fitness and should blend into the race at the right time from barrier 9. (12) Jambalaya rounds out the numbers.

Selections:
(3) Zouripper
(6) Modella
(10) Against The Law
(12) Jambalaya

Suggested Bet – No Bet

Race 2

Tricky Highway event. It’s hard to split (14) Nova Centauri and (8) Show ’Em Howl. Both bring smart last start figures to this event and both look to land forward of midfield from their respective draws. Of the two, I’d lean the way of (14) Nova Centauri. (4) Pony Soprano bounced back to form swiftly first up, he heads straight to town now with improvement needed. (7) Peninsula maps well from barrier 10, the booking of Lloyd should see this galloper land nice and forward in transit.

Selections:
(14) Nova Centauri
(8) Show ’Em Howl
(4) Pony Soprano
(7) Peninsula

Suggested Bet – No Bet

Race 3

One of the better BM78 2400m betting races you’ll find. (4) Tazima looks the horse to beat at first glance, but the $2.10 looks very skinny for a horse who will likely get back from gate 2 losing McDonald. Keen to side with (1) Juja Kibo off the back of a last start run full of merit. He put up a huge 800–200m figure before peaking on his run late. The big tick now is he can land more forward in the smaller field. (2) Cormac T is an honest galloper who ran a career peak last start but is lacking upside deep into the prep. (7) Funambulist gets the shades on and a smart use of the 2kg claim.

Selections:
(1) Juja Kibo
(4) Tazima
(2) Cormac T
(7) Funambulist

Suggested Bet – Juja Kibo WIN

Race 4

The Archibald trained (11) Seven’s goes on top here. The slow nature of the tempo last start was the undoing of him. He should get stronger tempo up front here rising to 1800m. (6) Glad You Think So is full of confidence off the back of back-to-back smart wins, again he looks well placed to make it three on the trot. (12) Nkosi gets the blinkers back on coming off a flat last start effort, trusting his SP he has to go in the mix. (10) The Years is next best.

Selections:
(11) Seven’s
(6) Glad You Think So
(12) Nkosi
(10) The Years

Suggested Bet – No Bet

Race 5

We are now back on a soft 7 track which changes everything. (7) Flying For Fun goes on top now which this drying deck. She’s trailled up like a rocket and should get her chance today. (5) Kerguelen was dominant when posted wide last start and as we know, laps up the heavy decks but the soft 7 now is a slight concern. (9) Catch The Glory was impressive last start at big odds, she drops in the weights here and maps to find the rails which is ideal. (2) Fire Star is another who has trialled up smartly but does have a query on heavy.

Selections:
(5) Flying For Fun
(9) Catch The Glory
(7) Kerguelen
(2) Fire Star

Suggested Bet – No Bet

Race 6

Group 3 Ming Dynasty for the 3yos over 1400m. The current favourite (1) Autumn Boy picks himself. He’s 2/2 in impressive fashion and looked particularly smart through the line in his latest 790m trial. He gets the ideal run from the draw and is the horse to beat. (8) Flying Orchid presents as the best wet tracker in the field, back-to-back progressive wins and has smart residual fitness on her side. (2) Grand Prairie peaks fitness-wise deep into the prep. The Up and Coming Stakes winner looks suited now rising to 1400m. Outside of that, both (3) Providence and (4) Federalist map to sit back and have last crack at these leaders.

Selections:
(1) Autumn Boy
(8) Flying Orchid
(2) Grand Prairie
(3) Providence

Suggested Bet – Autumn Boy WIN

Race 7

Massive news with (2) Joliestar coming out on race monring.  (8) Gangsta Granny goes firmily on top now. A ~3L career peak first up when running time behind Autumn Glow – if she holds that form here, watch out. (1) Stefi Magnetica should have won a G2 Shorts first up last prep over 1100m, she looks better placed here over 1200m but draws sticky. (4) Ameena is another smart fresh galloper, the strong query is the ground though. (7) Lilac and (3) Manaal round out the numbers from smart inside draws.

Selections:
(8) Gangsta Granny
(1) Stefi Magnetica
(4) Ameena

(7) Lilac

Suggested Bet – No Bet

Race 8

Massive field where there looks to be an above-average tempo expected up front. (9) Tempted is the horse I want to be with. She had an outstanding 2yo preparation and looks to have matured beautifully going off her recent 1050m trial. The biggest tick first up for her is the map. (6) Skyhook looks rather big price wise. He lugged 60.5kg first up off one trial when winning the Rosebud, another map horse with tactical versatility. (3) Beiwacht is a horse at odds who has claims. His first up run when posted 3-deep here at Rosehill was full of merit. He gets a much better draw here and looks well placed. (10) Wodeton will need luck from the draw, ideally a 3-wide line will be established.

Selections:
(9) Tempted
(6) Skyhook
(3) Beiwacht
(10) Wodeton

Suggested Bet – Tempted WIN/Skyhook SAVE

Race 9

(5) Autumn Glow would need to regress badly second up to look vulnerable in this year’s Theo Marks. At the current price of $1.50, I can’t back her. (2) Pier is one of the most fascinating runners of the day. He burst back onto the scene in Queensland and looked very sharp in a recent Warwick Farm trial. He maps to get a lovely run and I could entertain a small EW bet. (8) General Salute is another at odds I could look at. He was wide before closing off in the inferior outside lanes last start. He should enjoy a much more economical run here. (3) Democracy Manifest rounds out the numbers at huge odds.

Selections:
(5) Autumn Glow
(2) Pier
(8) General Salute
(3) Democracy Manifest

Suggested Bet – Pier EW SMALL

Race 10

Quality end to the program overall. (5) Captain Furai goes on top and gets one last chance. The slow tempo last start was his undoing, he maps to land in the 1-1 now deep into the prep and gets his preferred heavy deck again. (6) Narbold is the danger. Yet to miss a place in his past two starts and comes off a strong last start effort with a big gap to third. (2) Cristal Clear beat home Captain Furai last start, up in the weights but gets his chance from the draw.

Selections:
(5) Captain Furai
(6) Narbold
(2) Cristal Clear

Suggested Bet – No Bet