Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 1 No.8 Missapprehend
Next Best: Race 8 No.1 Attachments
Race 1
(8) Missapprehend was the subject of a heavy gamble on debut and justified that support to an extent with the race’s fastest final furlong in a Maiden that rated strongly. She was again backed into favouritism at Cranbourne last start, where she was forced to race wide on a day when the inside was clearly advantaged. Her recent trial suggests she’s improved again and, realistically, this looks hers to lose. I have her marked as an even-money chance.
(3) Sonic Surge produced the meeting’s seventh-fastest final furlong on debut after being restrained to the rear from a wide gate. He maps to settle much closer here and should run his race more efficiently.
(9) Mystery ’N’ Drama would need to take a step forward to trouble the top two. While she’s lightly raced and open to improvement, I have no inclination to back her at current odds.
(7) Miss Maranda was well supported when given her chance to break through at Mornington three weeks ago but failed to deliver. Still, the strength of that market move suggests she has ability and improvement wouldn’t shock.
Selections:
(8) Missapprehend
(3) Sonic Surge
(9) Mystery ’N’ Drama
(7) Miss Maranda
Suggested bet: (8) Missapprehend (Best Bet)
Race 2
(6) Per Favore trialled well leading into her debut, but little went right first-up when she was caught wide throughout at Cranbourne. She should take sharp improvement from that experience.
(1) Covert Mission has been placed at both starts, with each performance rating well. She drops back to five furlongs after being collared late at Moe and should be prominent throughout. I don’t want to be on, but she’s a deserving favourite.
(7) Spritz finished ahead of Per Favore on debut, though enjoyed a much kinder run and was a lesser market expectation.
(2) Lightwatch has trialled soundly and has shown enough to suggest she can measure up.
Selections:
(6) Per Favore
(1) Covert Mission
(7) Spritz
(2) Lightwatch
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 3
(4) Yolo won impressively at Seymour last start, settling on speed and putting the race to bed quickly. He can improve again second-up under Logan Bates.
(10) Expulsion brings solid form lines but may find a fast-run five furlongs a touch sharp.
(1) Rodriquez has recorded dominant wins on heavy ground at his past two starts. Translating that form to a dry track is the obvious query.
Selections:
(4) Yolo
(10) Expulsion
(1) Rodriquez
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 4
(1) Metallic Ruler has been well backed in both runs this preparation for Gavin Bedggood and arguably unlucky on each occasion. He can improve third-up and out to 1400 metres.
(3) Queensbury left nothing to chance last start, rolling along at a genuine tempo and breaking his rivals. He can repeat the dose if he holds that form.
(8) Two Wolves is better than what he showed first-up and can take a significant step forward.
(13) Two Sigma comes through the same race as Metallic Ruler, draws to settle closer, and it wouldn’t surprise if he turns the tables.
Selections:
(1) Metallic Ruler
(3) Queensbury
(8) Two Wolves
(13) Two Sigma
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 5
(6) Global Eclipse gets a significant jockey upgrade with Ethan Brown taking the reins. This is a horse who was backed into single figures for a Group 1 SA Derby and he can make a sharp improvement.
(11) Sparkle Link benefits from Craig Williams and a rise to 2100 metres. She may still be one run away from peak fitness but can run well.
(2) Scintillante should settle closer in what profiles as a faster-run race than last start.
Selections:
(6) Global Eclipse
(11) Sparkle Link
(2) Scintillante
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 6
(9) Tower Bridge was dominant breaking his maiden, setting a strong early tempo, briefly easing mid-race before accelerating sharply from the 600m. The margins were telling, and the runner-up has since performed well in a $175,000 Cranbourne race. With Neindorf likely to control the race outside the lead, he looks ideally placed.
(6) Aliano broke through at Sale at his fourth start, winning by 4½ lengths. The overall time was sound without being exceptional due to a mid-race slacken.
(10) Asiatic improved sharply to score at big odds at Seymour, finishing over the top of a collapsing pace. While he’s lightly raced and capable of holding the form, the race shape and SP are worth noting.
(7) Bold Strike is better known as a miler, but he has shown enough speed previously to be competitive at this trip.
Selections:
(9) Tower Bridge
(6) Aliano
(10) Asiatic
(7) Bold Strike
Suggested bet: (9) Tower Bridge
Race 7
The day (7) Canara is ridden with genuine intent is the day she wins again. She was outstanding relative to the pace scenario a fortnight ago. If McNeil uses her early, she can produce a level of form these struggle to match.
(6) Waco Kid won well at Cranbourne despite racing wide without cover. A softer run puts him right in the finish again.
(3) Itsukushima will likely control the speed from barrier one. He’s ultra-consistent and can win if others fail to reach their peak.
(8) Lafont broke his maiden stylishly at Sale, recording the third-fastest final 200m of the meeting.
Selections:
(7) Canara
(6) Waco Kid
(3) Itsukushima
(8) Lafont
Suggested bet: (7) Canara
Race 8
(1) Attachments has run to a level of form at his past two starts that would comfortably win this. He was only beaten by Recon first-up in fast time before dismantling a field at Kilmore. If he holds his form, he wins.
(5) Fluent has built nicely this preparation and looks ready to peak fourth-up. She’s the clear danger but will concede a start settling back in the field.
(4) Escarpa is inconsistent, but his best is good enough.
(9) Brilliant Horizon is lightly raced, trending the right way and has the upside to win a race like this.
Selections:
(1) Attachments
(5) Fluent
(4) Escarpa
(9) Brilliant Horizon
Suggested bet: (1) Attachments (Next Best)
