Turf Talk:
- Rail out 4m after being True last meeting. Warm conditions should see an early upgrade to a Good 3.
- Seymour is a well-designed circuit. Sprint races up to 1300m use the chute with a long run into the lone bend, while the mile start also enjoys a generous run to the first turn.
- Keep a close watch on the early races. While the track has played fairly of late, the inside has been suspect at a few recent meetings.
- Light winds expected and shouldn’t be a factor.
- Expecting a generally fair surface, with flexibility to adjust if patterns emerge.
Key stats:
- Anthony and Sam Freedman have a great record when they bring horses to Seymour, striking at 31.2% from 61 runners.
- John McArdle is flying, going at 24% from his last 100 runners at a PoT of 49.2%.
- There’s not really an in-form jockey at the meeting. Ben Allen and Jamie Mott lead the way.
Race 7
Think there’s only two chances here: Rhia and Kyle.
Rhia produced a strong rating winning first up at Mornington and there’s been strong winning form out of the race. She has been kept fresh for this and jumped-out very well to keep her up to the mark. Draws to sit handy to Bold Response (who has a 4kg claimer and should run along), and outside of those two there doesn’t look a lot of speed. If we’re trying to poke holes maybe the 1100m is some query with both wins being at 1000m, but the way she raced last time out suggests the trip will suit. I have her marked $1.70 and think she will only firm.
If there’s a danger, it’s Kyle. Brilliant late splits first up at Sandown in a race that didn’t change complexion. Draws to settle handier here.
Suggested bet: If spending $50 on the race having $40 on Rhia at $2.30 and $10 on Kyle at $8.
