Turf talk:
- Wangaratta is a strong betting track, with a long straight that generally gives all runners their chance.
- The sprint chute comes off the top of the home straight, meaning those races only negotiate one bend.
- The 1400m and 1600m starts provide a lovely run into the first turn.
- The last meeting appeared on speed, though that was more a function of firm ground and strong winds than any inherent track bias.
- The rail returns to the true in the straight after being out 3m at the previous meeting
- With warm weather forecast and light southerly winds, expect on-speed runners to have some advantage again, driven by conditions and the natural edge leaders enjoy rather than a pronounced bias.
- Keep a close eye on the weather, with storms and potentially damaging winds possible later in the day, which could materially alter the pattern.
Key stats:
- The Freedmans have an outstanding record at Wangaratta, striking at 35% with a PoT of 36.3%. They are also going at 23% from their last 100m runners at all tracks.
- Not many in-form hoops at the meeting but Brad Rawiller rides the course well, striking at 19.8% with a PoT of 27.7%.
Race 3
Weak Maiden.
Luke Oliver had two in the race and he’s scratched one, leaving (7) Hotei Senshi. This son of Maurice has had three jump-outs and shown good talent in each. Drawn to hold a spot near enough the speed on debut and getting straight to 1400m looks ideal. Strikes a very winnable race and the $3 on offer seems more than fair.
Suggested bet: Backing Hotei Senshi
Race 7
Good speed likely.
Happy to work around the favourite, (4) Rumours Abound. Granted she was fresh off a long spell at Wagga last time out but she had been given two really strong jump-outs leading in and the market support suggested she was ready to go; based on that her performance was a touch underwhelming. There’s plenty of speed here which could soften her up early. Can’t get her as short as the $3 on offer.
Alice Kennedy gets on well with (7) Antisocial and she looks set to run a big race fresh. Recent Echuca trial was good, beating home a very smart trial horse in Tapo, in easily the fastest heat on the morning. Should settle just in behind a hot speed and looks to pounce late.
Also having something on (1) Barnage. Has his share of weight, but John Keating seems best at getting this bloke out of the gates. He missed the kick when Jade Smith rode two back at Yarra Valley but was still able to overcome that slow start. He was plain at Flemington when getting keen out to 1200m (not his go) but has jumped-out nicely since. If he jumps evenly off gate one he will be in the finish.
Suggested bet: Backing Antisocial at $6.50 along with Barnage at $7.
