Turf Talk:
- Track has come up a Heavy 8 with a few showers forecast, so will need horses that can handle rain-affected going.
- Warrnambool is a track where it’s generally advantageous to be up on speed.
Race 1
Can have something small on Zanele here at odds. She has jumped-out very nicely on three occasions this campaign and think she can settle in the first 3-4 in run. No idea if she will handle the heavy deck but at $17 happy to take a punt.
Commedia probably leads off the pole draw don’t think she’s disadvantaged coming back 100m in trip, to the 1000m. She pretty limited, but has the map and fitness on side.
Torotena has trialled up quite well for her second campaign. Ultimately, he looks like he will be better over further, but he shown a degree of ability last time in and can be competitive.
Jade Trees debuts for the Hawkes team having trialled up nicely at Flemington. He’s a 4yo that has clearly taken time, but his latest jump-out was most encouraging. The stable makes a 7-hour round trip to Warrnambool and leave him in on a heavy, which either means they think he’s no good or they’re confident he will handle the going.
Suggested bet: Something small Zanele at a big price.
Race 2
Bella Angelica gets the blinkers on here which could be a big plus. She was good in a strong form race at this track on debut; she finished third there and first, second, fourth and fifth have all since won. She was utterly putrid at her subsequent Hamilton run, which was hard to explain. However, she has been back to the jump-outs and gone like a rocket with the blinkers on and I expect her to bounce back today.
Sloane Raider makes her debut as a 4yo. She will likely get out over further as her career unfolds but was taken with recent jump-outs at Terang and Penshurst. She can run a race at odds on debut.
Iberian Lynx commands respect but I thought he was pretty bog average at Wangaratta last time out, especially when being asked to dive in at the shorts.
Suggested bet: Backing Bella Angelica/Sloane Raider
Race 5
She’s Impeccable looks clearly the horse to beat and I can get her shorter than the current $2.40 on offer. She got a mile back on a day you needed to be ‘up and in’ at Kyneton first up and then had no luck at this track over 1200m last time out, again from the tail on track you wanted to be on speed. She looks ideally suited out to 1400m, just needs a half-decent ride from the apprentice.
Suggested bet: Backing She’s Impeccable
Race 6
Think there are two key chances here: Miss Tallchief and Fox Man.
Miss Tallchief ran one of the best lasts you’ll ever see this track and trip first up last campaign – she probably should’ve won. She has jumped-out very nicely again this time in and maps to settle off a genuine speed. Sting out no issue. Provided they can make ground then she will be in the finish.
Fox Man is a flying machine. He should be able to head them off early and his best work is done on rain-affected going. He has 4kg claimer Tayla Cameron on board who has only had a couple of rides. This is the first time she jumps aboard a horse that can lead, which I always think is easier for inexperienced jockeys and it makes the most of the 4kg claim.
Suggested bet: Pattern will be key, if horses can make ground then happy to take ~$4 about Miss Tallchief and ~$5 about Fox Man. I
