Turf Talk:
- Werribee is a tighter track with a short, 275m home straight that generally favours horses near the speed.
- Rail is right out in the 7m position, the last meeting with the rail out a decent way was 5m and they did want to ease away from the fence. Keep an eye out for any pattern.
- 1100m and 1600m starts have lovely, long runs into their first bends.
- Should be a Good 4 up to a Good 3.
Key Stats:
- John McArdle is going at 23% from his last 100 runners at a PoT of 43.7%.
- Lloyd Kennewell has also struck form, going at 20% from his last 100 runners with a handy PoT of 31.6%.
- Anthony and Sam Freedman are going OK, striking at 19% from their last 100 but that rises to 25.9% when they take a runner to Werribee.
- Harry Coffey is leading the way in the jockey ranks headed to Werribee, going at 17% in recent times.
- John Allen rides this track well having had 23 winners from 146 rides.
Race 4
They should go hard here with Harford and Taupe the likely leaders from Cosmic Grace, who also has good tactical speed.
Nicereine has trialled up nicely for the Gelagotis boys. He doesn’t have blistering early speed but can see him settling just off the leading trio. Like his turn-of-foot which will see him strengthening late while others will be feeling the punch.
Cosmic Grace seems a big price at $20. Her two recent jump-outs at Cranbourne have been more than solid – expect her to put in a bold showing on debut.
Harford has trialled well but he can get very keen, can see that bringing him undone on debut.
Suggested bet: Backing Nicereine/Cosmic Grace.
Race 5
Singing from a different hymnbook to the market here.
Can’t work out why Too Darn Crystal isn’t favourite. She was very good on debut, scooting around Cranbourne to win with authority over 1000m. She had excuses in the Blue Diamond Preview when running last. One run last campaign was poor, but she has trialled moderately leading in so suspect she didn’t come up at all. It’s some concern that the Price-Kent team have cast her aside, but Niki O’Shea looks to have her in terrific shape ahead of this resumption and no doubt O’Shea will be keen to post an early winner having relocated to Victoria. She can hold the front off gate three and give them plenty to chase down over 1000m fresh.
Suggested bet: $7+ looks a super price for Too Darn Crystal.
Race 7
So long as the inside is no penalty come race then Fields Of Courage looks hard to beat. Jump-outs ahead of this resumption have been sound. He did nothing but strike wet tracks in his first campaign for Gavin Bedggood but looks suited resuming her on top of the ground. He has been competitive in much stronger company than this – a moderate BM56 – and it looks a lovely, winnable kick off point to his campaign. 1400m fresh off a 1000m jump-out also looks to suit and from gate one he probably doesn’t need to get too far back.
Thinking Sensation is the main danger, especially if those on speed are advantaged. Has been racing consistently, making his own luck up on speed.
Suggested bet: Happy to wait and see that the inside is no major penalty, if that’s the case then backing Fields Of Courage.
