Dean Watling’s Everest Thoughts:
The big one – the 9th running of the $20 million Everest. Let’s start with the speed – and there is plenty of it on paper. This looks to set up for something off speed and off rails to run on from. Keen to side with (10) Lady Shenandoah, she brings an ideal profile to this event. She ticks the tactical versatility, third-up, and 1400m+ stamina boxes that you need to win a high-pressure Everest. The cherry on top is the map. I have the utmost respect for the HK champ (1) Ka Ying Rising, but I’m worried about the speed around him, the recent trial, the $1.50 and the 41 days between runs. He can still win, but I think he’s beatable. The 3yos have an outstanding record in this event, and the sole 3yo this year is an elite one – (12) Tempted. She draws in, which should see her nice and positive early from the gate – she’ll need luck to get off the fence but can do so. (2) Briasa needs cover at all costs but can’t be too far back. If Schiller can land midfield and find the back of Lady Shenandoah or Ka Ying Rising, it’s game on. (9) Joliestar almost draws too well – I doubt she can sit on speed and withstand this high pressure, but she’ll get back and look to unleash her powerful sprint. The best roughie of the field is (8) Angel Capital – I’m convinced he’s airborne. The gate is the query.
Selections:
(10) Lady Shenandoah
(12) Tempted
(1) Ka Ying Rising
(2) Briasa
Betting Strategy: Win (10) Lady Shenandoah
Mitch’s Lewis’ Everest thoughts:
The obvious big question in the race is (1) Ka Ying Rising, will he or won’t he turn up at his best for this. His best form is a couple of lengths better than any other runner’s peak rating. It’s huge to see him here in the country but I have a feeling it either goes really well for him, or completely bad. So I am dodging him as a betting play in this race and looking to back 2 runners to place as better options from a value perspective. Happy to completely forgive the last start run of (10) Lady Shenandoah at The Valley, she didn’t look suited there and never got going. Her first up run rated highly and she looked to have returned in super order, she can bounce back here in more suitable conditions and will be suited in a high pressure race. (9) Joliestar is another who will likely be well suited in a fast race, she hit the line impressively first up into the prep and now rising to the 1200m looks perfect, both of these runners should be suited if the race is run quickly and can see a world where they get their chance to swoop over the top.(5) War Machine impressed when winning first up, he goes well 2nd up and maps to get the perfect sit behind the expected hot speed, he can soak up pressure and be strong late.
(1) Ka Ying Rising
(10) Lady Shenandoah
(9) Joliestar
(5) War Machine
Betting Strategy: (9) Joliestar (PL) & (10) Lady Shenandoah (PL)
Gibbo’s Everest thoughts:
A very even race and I wasn’t sold with the trial of (1) Ka Ying Rising, but I admit if they have him right he probably wins. Don’t want to bet against him for the sake of it.
I am a massive fan of (10) Lady Shenandoah and the $14 is the last time you will ever get that about her. The Valley run didn’t look great but she was the best L200m of the race still. Go on her Randwick form makes her a live chance (4:3:1:0). Not sure if they will go fast enough for her but if she gets held up and finds a split late, she can make it more than interesting.
Betting Strategy: If I’m having a bet it will be (10) Lady Shenandoah e/w at $14
Trifecta: 1,10 // 1,2,4,5,9,10 // 1,2,4,5,9,10
Matt Welsh’s Everest thoughts:
As much as I admire and respect Ka Ying Rising, it’s hard to be with him at $1.90. I thought his trial was better than most, but there’s just enough doubt there to suggest he may not be 100%. This is clearly his biggest test and there’s a stack of speed to keep him company early. He can absolutely win – it’d be great for the race if he does – but the price is short enough.
Tempted is going to get a soft run from gate one. Yes, she will need some luck getting clear, but with a strong tempo forecast a run should be forthcoming. Her win two back was excellent and 3yo’s have a good record in the race.
Briasa has drawn an average marble, but he is flying. If he can get a half-decent run in transit, think he will be in the finish.
Jimmysstar and Angel Capital will be charging at them late.
Suggested bet: Small plays on Tempted and Briasa.
Trifecta: 1,2,12 // 1,2,4,8,12 // 1,2,4,5,8,9,12
