Betsy’s Set – Doomben Saturday

Betsy’s Bets:

Turf Talk:

• Rail 2.5m – A very fair rail placement.
• The key to Doomben is to get your maps right.
• In average run races it is advantageous to be on speed or with cover in the first half of the field.

Stats that matter:

• Hard to read into the Waller stable figures with so many runners Australia wide, but as of Wednesday lunchtime they’d only had 2 winners from last 50 at 4% and -72% ROI (return on investment flat stake). Current season 27 from 201 at 13% and -41.9% ROI.
• Emily Lang has started the new season well. 48 rides so far for 10 winners and 15.4% ROI.

Race 1

Selections: (3) Sporting Chance, (2) Yet He Moves, (5) Northern Decree, (1) This’llbetheone

(3) Sporting Chance might have been going around in easier races but the efforts for the new stable have been good. Comes here set to peak 4th up and should land midfield. (2) Yet He Moves is consistent, in the Waller yard and good jock on. Might be better at EF but can win here. No wins for (5) Northern Decree this prep but has been all around it lately. Thompson goes back on, tactically versatile and this is easier than last start. Don’t trust any of the others to be honest.

Suggested Bet: Small win bet (3) Sporting Chance

Race 2

Selections: (1) Encoder, (6) Soul Of Spain, (2) The Right Way, (7) Just Flying

Speed an issue here. I’d assume (2) The Right Way will be the leader but does something try to be different and take off early? That horse can give a kick and recent form is as good as it’s been. (1) Encoder is the class horse and the 3kg claim is a huge help. Winner last start, fitter and will appreciate a drier track. (6) Soul Of Spain is lightly raced for Waller and has upside. Nearly always the best late splits in his races and a nice winner last start. Drops 6.5kg off that win and have to respect. (7) Just Flying isn’t one of mine but it can land behind the leader with no weight and give a sight.

Was with (6) initially. But at the prices, lean to (1).

Suggested Bet: No bet

Race 3

Selections: (4) So You Are, (2) Piggyback, (3) Celestial Fury, (9) Akkadian Emperor

They take it in turns over the staying trips in Qld. (2) Piggyback is the new horse to the state. Has been running well on wet tracks in Sydney without winning. Thompson is a great booking and dry track shouldn’t be an issue. (3) Celestial Fury is having start 47 but bolted in last start. Only has to run up to that effort and would be hard to hold out. (4) So You Are is a handy horse with a good record (9:2:3:3). Rock hard fit from the three runs back and ready to show best. I’d like it on a bigger track but feel he still has the ability to beat these. (9) Akkadian Emperor has been better placed in Qld and has been strong late. One for exotics.

Suggested Bet: Win bet (4) So You Are, saving on (2) Piggyback

Race 4

Selections: (1) Sunrays, (7) Wisnierska, (5) Impervious, (3) Seveer

Fair to say (1) Sunrays is different gravy to these. The 1.5kg is a help for Lang too. Has won 5 of 6, is a genuine black type filly and rated 12 points higher than anything else in the race. (7) Wisnierska looks to have upside to me. Forget the heavy track run last start. Lightweight for a good stable and can improve.  (5) Impervious is with Gollan, is consistent and the stable seem keen. I wasn’t that keen on this horse but there seems to be a ground swell of support and when that happens for a Gollan runner, respect it.

Suggested Bet: (1) Sunrays – $3 opening seems huge

Race 5

Selections: (2) Exceed Speed, (5) Second Sun, (6) Divakara, (12) Kairos Louie

Barriers important from this point with a big field. (2) Exceed Speed is no star but is very consistent and in the leading stable. Good win last start and hard to find a knock. (6) Divakara has ability, but I have no idea how to catch the horse. Can look well placed and just put in a poor one. Maybe follow any money for it. If (5) Second Sun had a gate I would be keen. No idea where he lands now but he does have upside and this is a good trip 2nd up. (12) Kairos Louie is no star but has the ability to hold the front from the gate and might steal a break while the traffic has trouble behind. Wide barrier a big query for (13) Simply Amazing. Might have to go a long way back. If it finds the back of the right horse it may be strong late.

Suggested Bet: No bet

Race 6

Selections: (10) Shelstein, (1) Ludovisi, (5) Voracious, (4) Just Precious

Big field and good rides will make a big difference. Gollan with a strong hand. (1) Ludovisi is a good, consistent type with Thompson to ride. Was a good winner fresh last prep over this track/trip. Needs a good ride from the gate. (4) Just Precious has been in good form and is tactically versatile. Rock hard fit after four runs back but another who needs a good ride. (5) Voracious is Gollan and Jones combo. Failed only run on the track but had excuses. Can be the map horse here from the barrier and gets every chance. (10) Shelstein is a query at the trip but the good gate this time around can be the key. Should settle closer and the QLD runs have been good. Extremely wide and brave last time out.

Suggested Bet: Win (10) Shelstein

Race 7

Selections: (4) Bunker Hut, (2) Goldsborough, (8) Street Chase, (6) Space Tracker

This is a great race for (4) Bunker Hut. Looked a good thing when they accepted here last time out but didn’t run. Can park right on the speed, rock hard fit 3rd up and gets a handy claim. 1350m might have been better but 3 weeks between runs suits. (2) Goldsborough has found some of his old form and has been great lately. Loves the track, handles all ground and have to respect in this form. (8) Street Chase has a great overall record and last prep was narrowly beaten in a G3 race. Has class but been off a long time, so watch the market. (6) Space Tracker is a nice, consistent type who can map well and be around the money.

Suggested Bet: Win (4) Bunker Hut

Race 8

Selections: (2) Viminele, (3) Weigall Tiger, (8) Caspernova, (9) Code In Time

Have always been a big fan of (2) Viminele. Feel he is a black type horse at his best. Returned a gelding fresh and ran the 7th best L600m of the meeting. The gate looks good but he struggles to hold a spot. May need luck, but he is the best horse in the race. (3) Weigall Tiger has always had good ability and was in good form before the freshen up. Shouldn’t be too far off the lead and has a good record at the track (4:1:2:0). (8) Caspernova is consistent and has shown good ability. Has been costly to punters this prep though. Been in the market and yet to get it done this time in work. Blinkers go on first time and that might be the key here.

Suggested Bet: Win (2) Viminele and hope he gets the right run

Race 9

Selections: (5) Ready To Explode, (17) Bright Blonde, (10) Gospel Girl, (13) Bonded Affair

(5) Ready To Explode is a handy one with a good strike rate for Gollan. Very good style of a win last start and has a turn of foot. Better on bigger track, that is the query. Still hard to beat here. (10) Gospel Girl is Gollan too. Has won or placed in 9 of 13 and has a decent record on the track. Just needs a good ride early to find cover. (17) Bright Blonde has won two on the trot and the last start win was impressive. Went straight past the even money fave and won easily. Maps well and can win without surprising.

Suggested Bet: No bet