| Race | Horse | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | #3 Vandevelde | Best Value – Both runs have been good and out in trip suits. |
| 6 | #2 Galano | Best Roughie – Liked the way he picked up late last start and handles all ground. |
Turf talk
- Rail 1m
- One of those typical Qld summer outlooks. Warm all week but storms predicted Friday late and on Saturday. Complete guessing game until the races start what sort of track we will be on.
Stats that matter:
- The premier trainer Gollan is striking at 28% for his last 50 runners. He has an incredibly strong hand in today and should have multiple winners again.
- Martin Harley is as good as any jockey in Qld and he has ridden 13 winners from last 50 runners with a ROI of +38%.
Race 1
(3) Boomelli won a three horse race on debut. Hard to get a guide off that but the last 100m was the best part and put a gap on the others. Looks a handy one for Gollan.
Another of Gollan’s is (1) Itchintogo who is on debut. Led in a trial and won easily under a hold. Hard to win on debut but has ability. Watch the money to see which Gollan runner they back.
(2) Zip Lock was pushed out in a trial and ran 2nd. Tidy effort and can improve off that trial.
Selections:
(3) Boomelli
(1) Itchintogo
(2) Zip Lock
Suggested Bet: Win bet (2) Boomelli if $3+
Race 2
Small field but competitive race.
(4) Mr Buster has been exceptional in the two Qld runs and no reason he doesn’t get the hat-trick here. His last two wins have been with 61kg and 60.5kg, drops to 53kg here. Thompson takes the ride and he’s the one to beat.
(6) Counter was a moral at the Gold coast last start but they scratched to race here. Has been very good all prep and deserved the win in town last time out. Has a turn of foot and can be the testing material here.
(1) Nikau Spur, (3) Connecticut and (5) Naval Commission can all play a role but leaning to the 4 and 6.
Selections:
(4) Mr Buster
(6) Counter
(1) Nikau Spur
(3) Connecticut
Suggested Bet: Quinella 4-6
Race 3
Tough race to assess this. Still learning about a lot of them.
(2) Dushenka comes out of better races but I have been a little disappointed in the last couple of efforts. Does get 3kg off with good apprentice here.
Like what I have seen with (3) Vandevelde. Nice effort on debut, then in a fast run race she pinned the ears back and fought hard to win. Ran best L600-400-200m of the race and out in trip will only help.
(5) Diversity led and was just soft late over the 1800m last start in town. Back to this trip and easier race suits well.
(7) Norty Forty won in the bush two back and then very good late in a decent race last start. Good through line there and could be looking for this trip.
(1) Wily Jack is a one paced conveyance but he is honest and does try. Tactically versatile and want to respect in this.
Selections:
(3) Vandevelde
(5) Diversity
(2) Dushenka
(1) Wily Jack
(7) Norty Forty
Suggested Bet: E/W (3) Vandevelde
Race 4
Big fan of (3) El Morzillo, a good mare with a big finish. Trial was good without being great and 1350m fresh is a little query for me. Market always a good guide with this stable.
(8) Sirkel was a nice trial and then won in good style fresh. Fitter for that run, will be better at this trip and likes a soft track if the rain comes.
(4) Ready To Schipp has returned in good form with two very good runs. They haven’t been in great grade of races but gets a 3kg claim for an apprentice I have a lot of time for and can be on speed.
(1) Alectrona next best.
Selections:
(3) El Morzillo
(8) Sirkel
(4) Ready To Schipp
(1) Alectrona
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
Liked (4) Noble Conqueror in a similar race last week but they saved him for this. Has a ‘losers’ strike rate (3 from 32) but has been in great form the last couple of runs. Jumps 5kg on last start but gets Maloney on top. Don’t want it much worse than a soft 5.
Wetter the better for (7) Rock Hard Love. Little ordinary last start but can close off hard and gets the 3kg claim to help here. If the rain comes, this gets promoted to the on top selection.
(14) Evelyn May and (8) American Phireball probably the next best in an open race.
Selections:
(4) Noble Conqueror
(7) Rock Hard Love
(14) Evelyn May
(8) American Phireball
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
Not much speed and likely to suit the on pace horse.
The toppy (1) Free Carry is a good, consistent type for Gollan who races on speed and gives a kick. Well supported last start and just nailed late on the line. Well placed again but rises 7.5kg. (4) Exceed Speed is also Gollan and also consistent. Been freshened, could land midfield and be in the finish.
(2) Galano was lapped at first run for Dunn but track was too firm that day. Looked good winning last start, apprentice stays on and edge out of track helps.
(3) Express Payment started the prep in career best form and last start was simply too bad to be true. Maybe forgive that run but has to be taken on trust.
Selections:
(2) Galano
(1) Free Carry
(4) Exceed Speed
(3) Express Payment
Suggested Bet: Small E/W bet (2) Galano
Race 7
Big field, decent speed and a good ride will be needed.
Have always been a fan of (8) Midnight In Tokyo and the recent trial was excellent. Draws a decent gate, handles all tracks and she can win here without surprising.
(1) Oughton usually takes a run or two. Not bad fresh, fitter now and can improve. May just need one more to top him off. (3) Rockribbed has the ability but market best guide.
(3) Rockribbed has won similar races and could beat these without surprising. Market best guide with it first up here. Everything says (14) Edited By will need the run but does have ability and might be one for wider exotics at good odds.
Selections:
(8) Midnight In Tokyo
(1) Oughton
(3) Rockribbed
(14) Edited By
Suggested Bet: Win (8) Midnight In Tokyo
Race 8
Don’t rate many of these. (4) Heman was a nice winner two runs back this track/trip in a CL2. Then picked up late and ran out of room here in a CL6 last start. Just does not want any rain.
(10) Centennial Park was first start for the new stable last time out and was $5 into $3.10 late. Rider was concerned with action and had cardiac arrythmia. Have to forgive that and must have been impressing at the stables.
(6) Silvanito seems to run well then throw in a bad one. Impossible to follow but have to respect this stable when they head north.
(12) Gunroom has been good around maiden and CL1 grade down south. This is harder and maybe just watch the market.
(5) Oriente seems over the odds opening $15 off solid form.
Reckon I’ve backed (1) Boom Shot 10 times for no result, so I can’t back him to win two in a row.
Selections:
(10) Centennial Park
(4) Heman
(6) Silvanito
(5) Oriente
(1) Boom Shot
Suggested Bets: No bet
Race 9
Gates always important over this trip. (3) Shot Of Whiskey will be one of the leaders and loves the edge out of the ground. Will look the winner but can be weak late. Back to 1110m helps.
Doyle knows what horses to bring north and thought (7) Formal was a winning chance, but the gate is a concern. Needs a good ride now.
(12) Bundella is still learning what it is all about but has upside and in the right yard. Has options from the good gate and may get the run of the race. Respect any money for him.
No doubt (1) Pareto is a far better horse with a wet track and with a good apprentice could surprise a few here. All the scratching’s have helped (11) She’s Exotic. Was gate 18 and now with the smaller field should be able to press forward and find a spot.
Selections:
(12) Bundella
(3) Shot Of Whiskey
(11) She’s Exotic
(7) Formal
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 10
Under the plate conditions there are a few who get in really well. (3) Pereille has always shown good ability and is really well placed up here in Qld. Nice style of a win last start of last prep and the trials have been good this time in too.
Ten scratching’s has ruined this race. (11) Street Chase is a very good one but has not come back the same horse. (7) Lubrication may need the run but does have the class to be right in the finish.
They look to have a clear class edge on the others and any of another half dozen could fill the placing’s depending on track conditions this time of day.
Selections:
(3) Pereille
(11) Street Chase
(7) Lubrication
Suggested bets: Win (3) Pereille if $2.80+







