| Race | Horse | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | Van De Ban (Best Roughie) | Stable on fire and has upside |
| R4 | Celestial Blaze (Next Best) | Last chance but will be on speed and look the winner for a long way. |
Turf Talk:
- Rail is out 6.5m
- Extremely hot week predicted in Brisbane and 31 degrees will dry this track out.
- With the rail out and the heat, I expect this to play to the front and leaders should be advantaged.
Stats that matter:
- The Munce stable have been shooting the lights out. Last 50 runner stats around 26% winners and 50% ROI; they are airborne.
- Michael Rodd is back in the saddle. Limited rides for many reasons lately, but 14 recent rides for a few winners and 54% ROI. Good to see him back.
Race 1
No speed at all here and could get a bit messy. Something has to lead, which means change of tactics, but not sure which will try it. (3) Sevilo and (1) Flop Shot went over the line together last start and both look leading chances here. Both suited out to the mile but maybe Sevilo has the most improvement from the debut run. (7) She Can Soar may be the next best and rock-hard fit from recent runs.
Selections:
(3) Sevilo
(1) Flop Shot
(7) She Can Soar
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (3) Sevilo if $2.50+
Race 2
(5) Meadowbrook and (10) Regal Rina were nearly identical runs last start. Both were on debut, but were good through the line and both have upside. Advantage to Meadowbrook drawing inside the other horse and will push forward. Regal Rina has an awkward gate but gets Thompson on top to help. They look the winning hopes, with (9) Stromboli Delight and (2) Chayse’N’ The King maybe the next best.
Selections:
(5) Meadowbrook
(10) Regal Rina
(9) Stromboli Delight
(2) Chayse’N’ The King
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (5) Meadowbrook if $2.50+
Race 3
(9) Provoker is always in the market and likely fave again here. Has placed in 4 of 5 without winning so far. Should map well from the gate and was scratched on the weekend for this. (10) Van De Ban was a pass mark on debut and then tipped out. Has been gelded and the trial was OK. The gate is a worry, but this stable has them running through brick walls and he looks very hard to hold out. (6) Atomic Time lacks a bit of class but was OK fresh and can strip fitter. Respect either of the Vandyke runners if they have support – (7) Bon Vader, (8) Hard As Brok.
Selections:
(10) Van De Ban
(9) Provoker
(6) Atomic Time
(8) Hard As Brok
Suggested Bet: (10) Van De Ban e/w $14
Race 4
(1) Celestial Blaze has ability and should not still be in this grade. Twelve starts, just the single win and five times runner-up. Comes here off three straight seconds and drops from BM68. Everything says he gets every chance again. (3) Heroic Rebel was good two back and then a dominant maiden winner over a mile last start. Lightly raced with Gollan and looks to have upside. They look the winning hopes and next best were scratched. Maybe (5) Use Your Illusion for Gollan can be the other one for exotic players.
Selections:
(1) Celestial Blaze
(3) Heroic Rebel
(5) Use Your Illusion
Suggested Bet: Win bet (1) Celestial Blaze
Race 5
Very even race this one. (1) Just Precious is tactically versatile and should be able to hold a spot from the inside draw. Gets a 3kg claim and like the 30 days between runs to freshen up. (6) Blue Allure was just plain down south but, like most horses that join Gollan, can win races up here. Made a stack of ground from the back fresh and Thompson stays on. Drops 3.5kg and looks a real winning hope. (9) Wisnierska was excellent two back and then average last start. (8) Metal Man was a dominant winner on debut and well supported too. Has good ability and will be winning more races. Maps well to help the cause too.
Selections:
(1) Just Precious
(6) Blue Allure
(8) Metal Man
(9) Wisnierska
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
On top pick and one of the best bets has come out and opened this race up. I reckon (2) Man Of The Town is better on a big track but gee, he is in good form. The maiden win fresh was OK but the last start at EF was impressive. Comes here 3rd up and will be hard to hold out late. (1) Mr Buster might need the run, but keep an eye on the market and follow any support. (5) Fifth Force is fitter now and gets the blinkers off.
Selections:
(2) Man Of The Town
(5) Fifth Force
(1) Mr Buster
(7) Scoundrel
Suggested Bet: Win (2) Man Of The Town
Race 7
Another tough race. (8) Araletta has mixed form recently but is a decent type. Like the fact they decided to be on speed last start and gave a good sight. If they put her on speed again she can win. (9) Charlie’s Case is no star, but is another who can be on speed and look the winner. Has only won 4 from 33 and that is the query here. (10) Bollinger Miss might have the most ability here but is a chance to spot them a big start from the wide gate. (1) The Little Pumper has had two runs for Gollan and improved last start. Ready to peak 3rd up and gets the 3kg claim to help.
Selections:
(8) Araletta
(1) The Little Pumper
(9) Charlie’s Case
(10) Bollinger Miss
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8
These are either horses out of form or who map poorly. Very weak open handicap. (5) Beaux Rumble is the likely leader and, on his day, can be very good. Plain fresh and beaten a long way, but this track should suit and fitter 2nd up. (2) Goldsborough won a couple of Saturday races in a row earlier in the prep. Has been beaten a long way the last couple. Not sure if he needs a spell, but gets in light after the claim and might get the box seat. (6) Hatchet loves this track (19:5:3:1) and has a good 2nd up record (6:2:1:1). Think he’s a better horse ridden quiet, but may need to be closer if this track plays the way I think it will.
Selections:
(6) Hatchet
(5) Beaux Rumble
(2) Goldsborough
(10) Show Some Decorum
Suggested Bets: No bet
