Summary of Best Bets:
Race 4 #7 Cool Moon – Consistent type, good in a better race last start.
Race 5 #9 Banxi – 1800m looks ideal on the big track.
Turf Talk:
- Rail 10m
- Rail out most places usually means it can play to the front but EF is such a big track it’s always better to watch the first couple and see how it races.
- One of my pet hates is the rail out so far on any tracks, doesn’t set up for good racing.
Stats that matter:
Jai Williams is an apprentice is hot form. From his last 50 rides his ROI is a massive +126%
Martin Harley has had a great season so far. Has ridden 24 winners at 19.4% and has a ROI of +22%
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Race full of first starts, hello thrill seekers! I was actually keen on this race but scratchings have ruined it. Four of the six I had mentioned are out.
(10) Sweet Rebellion is a very fast horse and with rail out, might be very hard to catch. She’s only a little thing and the last 50m might still be a query. Won a trial by nearly 8L.
(11) High Authority will have supporters off the trial versus Star Of Jamaica. Went OK there but want to see it here.
(12) Cherry Bomshell is emergency but probably the winner if it gets a run. No luck in a hot debut race over the Millions carnival and race experience is the key.
Selections:
(12) Cherry Bomshell
(10) Sweet Rebellion
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2:
The toppy (1) Emperor is well bred and can look like a very good one on his day. Is just as likely to put in a shocker for no reason. I’ve had great trouble trying to work out which one turns up. Finds an incredibly winnable race if he’s anywhere near his best.
(2) Acres Away put a couple of very good preps together but wasn’t great when last in work. Very suitable race first-up and has a good fresh record (4:2:0:1). Beaten a long way in the trial.
Selections:
(1) Emperor
(2) Acres Away
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3:
(4) Forging Ahead has a turn of foot when a race pans out. He looked the winner last start but just got run over by one of Waller’s late. Horror gate here and will need luck, but is knocking on the door.
(9) Machrimore was plain in the Millions race but was only 4.5L off Spanish Treasure which probably lines up for this. Fitter third-up and the blinkers going on might switch her on.
The southern maidens looks stronger than ours so (14) Hermione Prancer could improve. Good option by Waller sending it north to try their luck against some plain ones.
(12) Amelioration may want further but the big track is a help.
Selections:
(4) Forging Ahead
(9) Machrimore
(12) Amelioration
(14) Hermione Prancer
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4:
(7) Cool Moon is better than Maiden grade and time to stand up and get through it today. Did get every chance in the Magic Millions race but was still good although beaten. Has been runner up on four occasions but from the gate, can go one better today.
(4) Quickzou comes out of the same race. Gave a kick but was weak late there.
(11) Miss Adrift is lightly raced and has shown some ability. Was there to win at the Sunny Coast but the winner might have a bit of talent. Brave enough late and maps well from the nice draw for Ceejay Graham.
(15) Magic Snitzel was $2.60 on debut and probably disappointing. Not a lot went right and I’d expect her to improve lengths off the day at the races. Winkers on also could be a big help.
Very hard to win in town on debut but a couple have trialled well. (2) Moshulu Spirit and (1) Justa Night Out both look like they can be winning a race soon.
Selections:
(7) Cool Moon
(11) Miss Adrift
(15) Magic Snitzel
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (7) Cool Moon
Race 5:
It might not have been a great race but I loved the win of (9) Banxi last time out. Best part was through the line and 1800m looks ideal on the big track. Thompson on top is a positive and can continue to improve this horse.
Not too sure how (6) Okesutora has been so short in the market this prep but the last start effort was very good. Stable going well, gets a claim and see what market does again I guess.
When Maher brings them up here he usually gets it right. (5) So Long Farewell is no star but will be better placed up here in Qld and the plain staying races. Yet another great ride for Williams and the 3kg off is a big help.
(4) More Trouble and (7) Jenni Moreese can be given thoughts for exotic players.
Selections:
(9) Banxi
(5) So Long Fairwell
(6) Okesutora
(7) Jenni Moreese
Suggested Bet: Small e/w bet (9) Banxi
Race 6:
More than half the field has come out, what’s happening??
Everything tells me to not fall for (9) Moravia off the good run at the Millions. Was a highly promising type early on and then lost his way a bit. Ridden aggressively last start and nearly stole the race. Draws well and gets claim for good apprentice.
(2) Don’tcha Think had a long time off and the fresh run was pretty good. Can only improve off that and he is another one to watch the market with closely.
Selections:
(9) Moravia
(2) Don’tcha Think
Suggested Bet: None
Race 7:
No doubt (1) Backstage has ability and I have always liked the horse. I just feel he might have found his level now. More than up to this but often finds one better and more a place chance.
(11) Swag has been a frustrating maiden but he was impressive winning last start. Could go on with it now but the very wide gate doesn’t help. They may ride forward again but bit of a guess.
(6) Prominent Lad’s record tells the story (12:1:2:3). Got the gun run last start, got out after the leader but just lacks a turn of foot to put races away. Place again here.
(10) Headstrong has the horrible get back pattern but has been good late and could run into this late. Will need a lot to go right if he is to run them down.
(12) Possibilities always runs well but just the one win from a dozen starts doesn’t read well. Maps well, gets every chance and is in the Waller camp.
Don’t like this at all.
Selections:
(11) Swag
(1) Backstage
(6) Prominent Lad
(12) Possibilities
Suggested Bet: Nope
Race 8:
Top selection scratched again! What a joke of a day.
(1) Simply Excels is a consistent type but just doesn’t get the job done enough. Loomed to win last start and again found one better. Does get the hot apprentice on and the 3kg off to help out.
Not sure the rail out will help (6) Corrupted. She is another who always flashed but wins rarely. Also think she is better at 1100m. The gate is a big help because for her to run the 1200m out she has to be held up for as long as possible.
Same story with (7) Flying Shelly, three wins from 25 but usually somewhere around the money. Lacks class but can be in exotics here.
(12) Stein is lightly raced for the Munce stable and they have been running through brick walls the whole season. This is a jump in grade and might find it a bit harder. Does have some upside though.
Selections:
(1) Simply Excels
(6) Corrupted
(12) Stein
Suggested Bets: None
