Summary of Best Bets:
Both best bets have been scratched and don’t want to throw something here for the sake of it.
Turf Talk:
- Rail 12m
- Here we go again, just don’t like racing with the rail out this far.
- Weather is good and track should be great conditions for racing.
Stats that matter:
- Munce stable had done incredible things for a surprisingly long run but have gone cold finally. Only 5 winners from last 50 runners and ROI -53%.
- Andrew Mallyon is going as well as any jockey in Qld. Stats wise he is ahead of them all with 12 winners from last 50 rides and ROI +18%
Race by race overview
Race 1:
The favourite looked the winner and now it’s come out this race is a shocker to start the day. Zero confidence, might have this one off.
(3) Wanna Kiss has improved a little as she has gone up in trip. Lightly raced 5yr old mare and could run a race here as they are very weak.
(5) Lady Tangalooma looked plain last start but was jagged back on a track that might not have been easy to make ground. Thompson/Gollan combo and respect any market support.
(4) Bassett’s Choice is a Wootton Basset and with Waller. Yet to run a place but watch the market.
Selections:
(5) Lady Tangalooma
(3) Wanna Kiss
Suggested Bet: No
Race 2:
A few leading chances have come out and it looks as though they are trying to give Paper Doll a chance to break through, (joking of course).
(10) Tam Na Ghar looks very hard to beat. Just the two runs to date and she has been solid. Led them up this track/trip last start and gave a kick. Draws to be right on speed again and rail out will only help.
(8) Paper Doll, what do we do with her? She puts herself there to win but has run 2nd in all seven runs this prep (even ran 2nd in her trial). Has to go in everything but a win bet is for the thrillseekers.
(9) Peak Miss has been good for Heathcote. Hasn’t been far off all prep this time in. Just lacks the turn of foot to win races.
Selections:
(10) Tam Na Ghar
(8) Paper Doll
Suggested Bet: (10) Tam Na Ghar
Race 3:
I had loved what (7) By The Way had done at the trials. She made her debut at the Gold Coast and was good without being great. Punters would not have been happy as she was $1.75 but some of the prices horses are starting up here are crazy at the moment. Better for that experience, gets Harley on top and can win.
(5) Prophet Of Destiny was scratched from a winnable race recently. The debut run was full of merit and the 3kg claim will help here. The wide gate is the concern with an apprentice on.
(9) Hello Dolly Diva has been runner up at both starts and will win a Maiden. Just the wide gate isn’t ideal.
(8) Enterprise Giselle has trialled well multiple times. Most recent was a dominant win and respect any money that comes for her.
(12) Queen Jeddah was good in her first prep and did win a recent trial leading into this. Can push forward and look the winner at some stage.
Selections:
(7) By The Way
(12) Queen Jeddah
(8) Enterprise Giselle
Suggested Bet: Win (7) By The Way
Race 4:
Do punters go again with (1) Hot Majesty or not? Unlucky at first start for Gollan first-up but frustrating since. Has been $2.60 and $1.90 and beaten his last two. Is rock hard fit now, gets a claim and is a leading chance.
(3) Sexy Time is a handy one on the way up. In the Gollan stable and is the likely leader here. Meets Hot Majesty worse at the weights but will be better for that last run and could be hard to catch here with the rail out.
I like the races (5) Cantarito comes out of and that Sydney form should line up well. Mallyon rides for Waller and the only query for me is the get back style with the rail out.
Selections:
(3) Sexy Time
(1) Hot Majesty
(5) Cantarito
Suggested Bet: Quinella 1,3,5
Race 5:
Pretty ordinary race this one.
Can be forgiving of the margin for (3) Air We Go last time out. Went to make a run on the fence but it closed and went to the line untouched. Was never getting the winners but should have been lengths closer.
It’s the right trip for (1) Alloutatime. She is tactically versatile and should get a good run in transit. Like the apprentice on top and has won a trial leading into this.
Selections:
(3) Air We Go
(1) Alloutatime
Suggested Bet: Small bet (3) Air We Go
Race 6:
Well I thought (3) Meldubious was a good thing last start but he was $1.75 out to $2.45 late and went like a busted bum. Can’t possibly have him off that run but previous form is more than good enough.
(2) Bundella has shown ability for Gollan but not one I think has a lot of upside. Just think 1000m is more his go.
(8) Jenchick Boom is consistent for Gollan but a little limited. Was on speed and soft late last start. One for exotics.
(6) I’m Zac has shown enough in the past but another that is limited.
Don’t like this race at all.
Selections:
(3) Meldubious
(2) Bundella
(6) I’m Zac
(8) Jenchick Boom
Suggested Bet: Nope
Race 7:
Best of the day has come out and don’t like the race now.
(3) Ready For The Trip went through the grades nicely last prep including three in a row. May need this run to be fitter but don’t want to undersell as he has nice upside and in the Gollan stable.
(1) Influential, (2) Hell To Pay, (7) Delrico and (10) Amahni’s Girl all have genuine chances but all seem more place plays and exotics for me. (1) Influential could be the best of those, the last run was excellent but doesn’t have the biggest will to win.
Selections:
(3) Ready For The Trip
(1) Influential
(2) Hell To Pay
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8:
Most of these have found their level.
(2) Kadall will again be in the market and my guess is Kadall will not win again. He has been well placed on many occasions in Qld and doesn’t get it done. Maps well and gets every possible chance again.
(1) Detrimental is a consistent on speed horse who is always around the money. Just misses that change up speed to skip away and put races to bed.
(4) Carpaccio is another consistent one but has only won 2 of 19. In a very smart yard and back up to the mile should be very suitable, as is the gate.
(8) Kairos Louie is likely to need the run but was good first-up last prep and is a little underrated.
Selections:
(4) Carpaccio
(1) Detrimental
(2) Kadall
Suggested Bets: Win (4) Carpaccio and saver (1) Detrimental
