Summary of Best Bets:
Race 2 # Delicious Derek – Easier here and should be well placed in this.
Race 7 #4 Chief In Charge – In great form and has a better turn of foot than these.
Turf Talk:
- Rail 12m
- Here we go again, just don’t like racing with the rail out this far.
- Weather is good and track should be great conditions for racing.
Stats that matter:
- Munce stable had done incredible things for a surprisingly long run but have gone cold finally. Only 5 winners from last 50 runners and ROI -53%.
- Andrew Mallyon is going as well as any jockey in Qld. Stats wise he is ahead of them all with 12 winners from last 50 rides and ROI +18%
Race by race overview
Race 1:
(2) Isla Delilah has been consistent and can race on speed. Second best L200m of the race last time out and looks the right option now. She is no star but neither are any of the others.
(3) Wanna Kiss has improved a little as she has gone up in trip. Lightly raced 5yr old mare and could run a race here as they are very weak.
(5) Lady Tangalooma looked plain last start but was jagged back on a track that might not have been easy to make ground. Thompson/Gollan combo and respect any market support.
(4) Bassett’s Choice is a Wootton Basset and with Waller. Yet to run a place but watch the market.
Selections:
(2) Isla Delilah
(5) Lady Tangalooma
(3) Wanna Kiss
Suggested Bet: No
Race 2:
(3) Delicious Derek looks well placed here. Trained by Waller and a son of The Autumn Sun. The fresh run was very good and then just a bit outclassed last start (winner might be handy). Not the best gate but blinkers first time and has upside.
(10) Tam Na Ghar looks very hard to beat. Just the two runs to date and she has been solid. Led them up this track/trip last start and gave a kick. Draws to beright on speed again and rail out will only help.
(6) Prophet Of Destiny was scratched from a winnable race recently. The debut run was full of merit and the 3kg claim will help here. The wide gate is the concern with an apprentice on.
(8) Paper Doll, what d we do with her. She puts herself there to win but has run 2nd in all seven runs this prep (even ran 2nd in her trial). Has to go in everything but a win bet is for the thrillseekers.
(9) Peak Miss has been good for Heathcote. Hasn’t been far off all prep this time in. Just lacks the turn of foot too win races.
(2) Tulong has promised to win races and is consistent. Yet to win in 11 starts makes it hard to bet. Has placed in six races and can be around the money again.
Selections:
(3) Delicious Derek
(10) Tam Na Ghar
(2) Tulong
(6) Prophet Of Destiny
Suggested Bet: Win (3) Delicious Derek and save (10) Tam Na Ghar
Race 3:
I had loved what (7) By The Way had done at the trials. She made her debut at the Gold Coast and was good without being great. Punters would not have been happy as she was $1.75 but some of the prices horses are starting up here are crazy at the moment. Better for that experience, gets Harley on top and can win.
(4) Los Alamitos shouldn’t be in this race. Can’t believe he actually got run down last start where he looked home for all money. Can box seat here and get every chance.
(5) Prophet Of Destiny was scratched from a winnable race recently. The debut run was full of merit and the 3kg claim will help here. The wide gate is the concern with an apprentice on.
(9) Hello Dolly Diva has been runner up at both starts and will win a maiden. Just the wide gate isn’t ideal.
(8) Enterprise Giselle has trialled well multiple times. Most recent was a dominant win and respect any money that comes for her.
(12) Queen Jeddah was good in her first prep and did win a recent trial leading into this. Can push forward and look the winner at some stage.
Selections:
(7) By The Way
(4) Los Alamitos
(12) Queen Jeddah
(8) Enterprise Giselle
Suggested Bet: Win (7) By The Way
Race 4:
Do punters go again with (1) Hot Majesty or not? Unlucky at first start for Gollan first up but frustrating since. Has been $2.60 and $1.90 and beaten his last two. Is rock hard fit now, gets a claim and is a leading chance.
(3) Sexy Time is a handy one on the way up. In the Gollan stable and is the likely leader here. Meets Hot Majesty worse at the weights but will be better for that last run and could be hard to catch here with the rail out.
I like the races (5) Cantarito come out of and that Sydney form should line up well. Mallyon rides for Waller and the only query for me is the get back style with the rail out.
I’ll probably lean wrong Waller way as (6) Canara ad (7) Possibilities both have decent form but horrible win strike rates.
Selections:
(3) Sexy Time
(1) Hot Majesty
(5) Cantarito
Suggested Bet: Quinella 1,3,5
Race 5:
Pretty ordinary race this one.
Can be forgiving of the margin for (3) Air We Go last time out. Went to make a run on the fence but it closed and went to the line untouched. Was never getting the winners but should have been lengths closer.
(7) Bundella has shown ability for Gollan but not one I think has a lot of upside. Might not need it against these and has a great record at the trip (6:3:2:0)
It’s the right trip for (1) Alloutatime as well. She is tactically versatile and should get a good run in transit. Like the apprentice on top and has won a trial leading into this.
Selections:
(3) Air We Go
(7) Bundella
(1) Alloutatime
Suggested Bet: Small bet (3) Air We Go
Race 6:
Well I thought (3) Meldubious was a good thing last start but he was $1.75 out to $2.45 late and went like a busted bum. Can’t possibly have off that run but previous form is more than good enough.
(2) Bundella has shown ability for Gollan but not one I think has a lot of upside. Just think 1000m is more his go.
(8) Jenchick Boom is consistent for Gollan but a little limited. Was on speed and soft late last start. One for exotics.
(6) I’m Zac has shown enough in the past but another that is limited.
Don’t like this race at all.
Selections:
(3) Meldubious
(2) Bundella
(6) I’m Zac
(8) Jenchick Boom
Suggested Bet: Nope
Race 7:
This is a bit more interesting.
(4) Chief In Charge is airborne at the moment. Has won a couple in a row and won or placed in 8 of 10. When things pan out, he has a nice turn of foot and can keep progressing.
(3) Ready For The Trip went through the grades nicely last prep including three in a row. May need this run to be fitter but don’t want to undersell as he has nice upside and in the Goolan stable.
(1) Influential, (2) Hell To Pay, (7) Delrico and (10) Amahni’s Girl all have genuine chances but all seem more place plays and exotics for me.
Selections:
(4) Chief In Charge
(3) Ready For The Trip
(1) Influential
(2) Hell To Pay
Suggested Bet: Win (4) Chief In Charge
Race 8:
Most of these have found their level.
(2) Kadall will again be in the market and my guess is Kadall will not win again. He has been well placed on many occasions in Qld and doesn’t get it done. Maps wel and gets every possible chance again.
(1) Detrimental is a consistent on speed horse who is always around the money. Just misses that change up speed to skip away and put races to bed.
(4) Capraccio is another consistent one but has only won 2 of 19. In a very smart yard and back up to the mile should be very suitable, as is the gate.
(8) Kairos Louie is likely to need the run but wasgood first up last prep and is a little underrated.
Selections:
(4) Capraccio
(1) Detrimental
(2) Kadall
Suggested Bets: Win (4) Capriccio and saver (1) Detrimental
