Summary of Best Bets:
Race 8 No.1 Boomtown Boss – He’s a beauty and been set for this race for a long time.
Race 3 No.7 One Day At A Time – If the $2.40 holds up I will play.
Turf Talk:
- The rail is out 1m
- Hot weather leading into race day but showers predicted. If they happened to miss this could be a Firm 2 and leaders track.
- Just have to wait and see what the weather gods produce race day. Pretty disappointed with the strength of the feature races.
- Got to be honest and say confidence on this meeting is LOW on a track I don’t play well on.
Stats that matter:
- Ben Thompson has ridden 9 from his last 50 but at an impressive ROI of +35%.
- The McEvoys bring a good team north and they are striking at 20% from their last 50 at an ROI of +27%
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Feels like Gollan has always had time for (1) Midnight Spirit. Comes out of a good race last week and wasn’t too bad through the line. This is easier, but the 1400m is just a tiny concern but is 4th up and rock hard fit now.
(3) Ha’penny Hatch is consistent but a while between drinks now for her. She was good at the Sunshine Coast behind two horses who are well above average. Likes EF and as hard as it is to have her on top, she is well placed.
(10) Crash The Party is a maiden but I feel she is fitter 3rd up, will appreciate this trip and can improve. The gate not ideal.
Selections:
(3) Ha’penny Hatch
(10) Crash The Party
(1) Midnight Spirit
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2:
Yay, the Qld staying race (said nobody ever).
No doubt (1) Sun Worshipper is the horse in form. She was brave and runner up two back at the Sunny Coast and then a strong winner last week. Like the back-up but she is only small and up in weight even after the claim here.
(3) Kaluakoi actually beat the horse above at the Sunshine Coast and meets her half a kg better for a 1.7L win here. This stable has had an unbelievable run and this bloke can win here for sure. Sits on speed but always seems to give a kick.
(10) Tommy Thug has had 19 starts but the trip to Qld has made him a horse. Has won 2 of 3 since arriving here and the wins have been in good style. Best L200m splits in his last four runs. Up in class but down 4.5kg and he might get over them late again.
Selections:
(3) Kaluakoi
(10) Tommy Thug
(1) Sun Worshipper
(4) Naval Commission
Suggested Bet: Small win (3) Kaluakoi
Race 3:
McEvoys bring (7) One Day At A Time north and looks the perfect horse for this if she handles EF. Ran 3rd in a Listed race at Flemington on debut and has since trialled under a hold at the Gold Coast. Maloney rides and she’s the one to beat.
(1) Rarotonga was good on debut, improved from that and won 2nd up as expected. Gate 9 a little sticky but does have tactical speed. Has the 59kg but looks a genuine type who can be competitive again here.
(6) Dream Roca beat Rarotonga on debut and hasn’t been seen since. Thompson rides for Birchley and draws well. Market always a good tell with this stable.
(4) Star Of Jamaica is the best of those making their debut.
Selections:
(7) One Day At A Time
(4) Star Of Jamaica
(6) Dream Roca
(1) Rarotonga
Suggested Bet: Win bet (7) One Day At A Time or Trifecta 7 // 1,4,6, // 1,4,6
Race 4:
Competitive affair.
Not sure the field was that good but (6) Moulin Miss was a good winner and been good all prep. Has the ability to quicken off a decent tempo and will look the winner at some stage.
(7) Barberry Spur has been good in all three career runs to date. Hasn’t been seen since the fresh run when solid behind Bossed Up who has franked that form. Maps well and the one they have to beat.
My take on (2) Hearts Are Better was untrustworthy, but as you read into form she just looks a hopeless wet tracker. If she gets dry ground you have to give her a chance.
(8) Scripted looked outstanding winning both races in her initial prep. Been off the scene a long time after an aborted prep last time in work. Trial 1 was excellent this time, trial 2 pretty good too. Double figures is the wrong price.
The X-factor is (10) Yoyo Yeezy. I loved his mum, Pickabee, and he is a big strapping type. He’s got all the upside in the world and sure to improve as the prep goes on. Can win off recent trial.
Selections:
(7) Barberry Spur
(10) Yoyo Yeezy
(8) Scripted
(6) Moulin Miss
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5:
Big jump in grade for (16) Balance The Books but, gee, she is a good one. Won a Maiden, a 3+4yo BM68 and then a F+M BM70 last time out. Now to a Cl6 in town with 52kg. The gate is the key and they will try to land midfield or just worse here. Need to save her for that turn of speed she has late.
Who knows with (6) Ser Joh? Had been just plain and then $13 out to $21 with 62kg last start and wins. Harley rides and good gate. Could win or run last and not surprise.
(2) Caspernova hasn’t lived up to market expectations a few times but he is very consistent and loves the EF track (6:2:2:1). Been up a long time but last start was very good and he can be one of the strongest late again.
(8) Town Crier is not one of mine but has been as consistent as anything in the races this prep and has to be respected again.
Selections:
(16) Balance The Books
(2) Caspernova
(6) Ser Joh
(8) Town Crier
Suggested Bet: No bet at the prices.
Race 6:
Speed on speed here, a lot that mix their form and luck will play a big part.
(12) The Black Cloud can land behind the speed and not spend a penny. Might need some rain as she is much better with cut out and if the rain doesn’t come this track could be too hard for her.
(1) Golden Boom is outstanding on his day but never been one I have had luck with. Was great at a G1 at the Valley two back before plain last start and freshened for this. Good record at this track and that is important (4:2:1:1).
(5) Metalart has a far better record 2nd up so may need the run. Just like the way this sets up for him and if the splits come late he can surprise a few here.
(16) Zouperb can’t take a trick. Very consistent but the gate ruined its chances last start and might have done the same again. Best L200m of the race last tart after a wide run. Could flash late but needs luck.
(9) Wanda Rox loves this track (7:4:2:0) but the wide gate a concern for it too.
Selections:
(1) Golden Boom
(16) Zouperb
(5) Metalart
(12) The Black Cloud
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7:
Plain race.
The toppy (1) Port Lockroy has been great in the past but found his limit and on the way down. In saying that, finds an ordinary bunch, blinkers first time and been in Listed/Group races for a long time now.
(3) Miss Joelene is a beauty. Best L200m 2nd up and fitter again now. Back in trip and spotting weight to the boys are negatives but she is impossible to knock.
I love (7) Snitzanova but she has obviously had some issues and time off. First up would have been a barrier trial and fitter now. Still expect there to be a lot of improvement off this run.
Two runs back with no weight, (11) Warby was outstanding. He’s one of the more frustrating types in Qld but will win one of these some day. Patience a bit short now though.
Leave me out of this.
Selections:
(7) Snitzanova
(3) Miss Joelene
(11) Warby
(1) Port Lockroy
(6) Victory Win
Suggested Bet: Nope
Race 8:
Gollan has had this race in mind for (1) Boomtown Boss for 6 months. When you have a horse this good, with a trainer that good (and a plan), very rare they don’t get the result. Fitter 3rd up, will like a firm track if it comes to that and clearly the one they have to beat.
(2) Tuned has won 2 of 3 this prep at BM78 level and gets Thompson to ride. Can get the run of the race from the low gate and has run well on this track before. Testing material.
I’ve risked (3) Band Of Brothers all the way through but he proved me wrong over 1400m last start. Every time he looked challenged he found and it’s hard to knock that form coming into this.
Have loved the way (11) Ready To Schipp has come back. Has the good on-speed pattern and don’t want to sell short here.
No idea what to do with (6) Brindavan but if Gollan has waited for this to expose him, respect.
Selections:
(1) Boomtown Boss
(2) Tuned
(11) Ready To Schipp
(3) Band Of Brothers
Suggested Bets: Win bet (1) Boomtown Boss
Race 9:
The class is (1) Zaszou but she has gate 16 and 60kg. Has to spot a lot of weight to some of these and needs everything to go right. Fitter for the two runs back and firmer ground might be a positive.
(2) Midnight In Tokyo has retuned well and was an easy winner in Listed grade last start. Got the perfect run there, Maloney stays on top but goes up 3.5kg this time off that win.
(12) Countyourblessings was a mare I thought would go places but has just been plain. Most recent trial good enough. I’ve run out of patience unless there is good money for her.
Similar story with (10) Junqueira who has had stop/start preps but recent trial was good. Not sure what to do with either of them but can’t leave out of quaddies.
Selections:
(2) Midnight In Tokyo
(1) Zaszou
(10) Junqueira
(12) Countyourblessings
Suggested Bets: No bet
Race 10:
Way too many queries here.
Market only guide with (5) Flying Aurelius. Has won 3 of 4 and in a great stable. Has had 189 days off, draws wide but likely to push forward.
(15) Trapedo didn’t have great luck behind Waku Waku last time out and the form previous was very good. Draws a little better and 4th up, ready to peak.
(2) Don Pedro is in form but have had to take claims and gates not ideal for apprentices.
(10) Silver Wedding was a winner last start and in Maher camp. Thought the race was plain but may have some upside.
(4) Esjay is flying at the moment and (18) Galpin better than a $30 pop.
Selections:
(5) Flying Aurelius
(15) Trapedo
(10) Silver Wedding
(4) Esjay
Suggested Bets: No bet
