Summary of best bets:
Next best: Race 1 No.3 Somewhere
Best bet: Race 2 No.10 Yes I Know
Race 1
(3) Somewhere finished quickly, resuming at Caulfield before covering plenty of ground racing wide and without cover at Ballarat. He can improve sharply in his third run of the campaign and holds performance ratings that would comfortably handle this field. Flemington’s spacious track will suit him.
(5) Leg Drive won commandingly at Cranbourne nineteen days ago, but there was little substance to the field he beat, and the clock wasn’t kind either. He’ll be prominent in the run and given every chance from the likely pace scenario, but I believe he’s a vulnerable favourite at around 3/1.
(9) His Finest Hour returned to winning ways at Wangaratta, finishing quickly and putting a well-exposed field away with authority. He can improve again.
(11) Onlygoldwilldo can settle further forward and give a good account of himself.
Selections:
(3) Somewhere
(5) Leg Drive
(9) His Finest Hour
(11) Onlygoldwilldo
Suggested bet: (3) Somewhere (Next Best)
Race 2
The market has a strong opinion of (10) Yes I Know, who has firmed significantly in two runs since returning from a spell. He’s run well without winning and looks set to run to a career peak. He was carried wide around the turn by a riderless horse at Ballarat and probably should have won had that not occurred.
(8) Fiorenot gave Touchdown a race at Caulfield last start and posted an impressive figure. There were five lengths back to third, and the overall time was very fast. He’s lightly raced, and a career peak isn’t out of the question.
(3) Ambassadorial resumes under new connections. He’s talented and has trialled as if he’s in good health, but I rate Fiorenot and Yes I Know as far better chances and expect his price to ease.
Selections:
(10) Yes I Know
(8) Fiorenot
(3) Ambassadorial
Suggested bet: (10) Yes I Know (Best Bet)
Race 3
(4) Persian Spirit is clearly going to start favourite, and I don’t expect his price to ease given the market’s opinion of him in recent times. He raced wide at Pakenham and still gave his opposition a beating. He returns to Flemington and can continue his progression through the grades. From a betting perspective, I couldn’t take odds-on, but if he were to ease to around $2.40 at any stage, that would represent a reasonable gamble.
(2) Zou Sensation raced on the same card as Persian Spirit but contested the Supernova, a stronger race. He ran commendably to finish fourth, racing to his usual figure, which is what we can expect again. If Persian Spirit gives him too much of a start, he can easily pinch this.
(3) Steparty is the runner at odds who can beat the favourite. He was well held in seventh in The Ingham last start, but if he can return to the figure he ran in The Damien Oliver. He’s a major player and capable of upsetting the short-priced favourite.
(7) Grid Girl keeps winning and must be given a chance. I’m not sure how much improvement is left in her, but she’s a chance nonetheless.
Selections:
(4) Persian Spirit
(2) Zou Sensation
(3) Steparty
(7) Grid Girl
Race 4
(3) Star Vega stayed on strongly in what became a brutally run Pakenham Cup. He lacks gate speed, so it’s paramount that Maloney holds a prominent position from the good draw, as this race shapes as a test of speed rather than stamina. He has the best acceleration in the field and will stay the trip.
(1) Future History will make the pace and run a reliable rating. He’s lost a yard this preparation with age, but is still racing to the level you’d expect for a typical Bagot Handicap winner. The slight concern is whether 2800 metres stretches him with 60kg, but there’s minimal pace on paper, and he can control the race to his liking.
I think I’ve backed (2) Interpretation at almost every start for the past two years. It’s just shy of 800 days since his last win, but he continues to race consistently and can run well again.
(6) Speycaster was well held by Future History last start but may have needed the run. Fourth up now, he can peak.
Selections:
(3) Star Vega
(1) Future History
(2) Interpretation
(6) Speycaster
Race 5
(3) Mystic Reign disappointed in one run last campaign, but had excuses. Prior to that, she was unbeaten in three starts, beating Let’sfacethemusic and Gallant Son down the straight. She trialled well behind Hedged, who has since won and looks a more natural five-furlong horse than the favourite.
(10) Cavalry Girl ran to a peak last start, and if she can hold that form, she’s a strong chance, though I suspect she may be better suited around a bend.
Selections:
(3) Mystic Reign
(10) Cavalry Girl
Race 6
(2) Harry Got Styles beat the favourite Celerity last start and now meets her 2kg better at the weights. His best recent performance came at this track and distance when narrowly beaten by Losesomewinmore.
While I believe the price disparity between Harry Got Styles and (15) Celerity is too great, I concede she deserves favouritism. She’s lightly raced, has a positive jockey change and is set to peak third-up. $2.20 is bordering on ridiculous, but she’s the right favourite nonetheless.
(12) Hello Romeo is lightly raced and can improve in his third racing campaign. He’s trialled well, and I like the booking of Jackson Radley.
(3) Salsa Fellow resumes after a disappointing run behind Persian Spirit last preparation, but his trials suggest he’s returned in good health.
Selections:
(2) Harry Got Styles
(15) Celerity
(12) Hello Romeo
(3) Salsa Fellow
Race 7
I’ve long felt (14) Egerton has been overrated by the market, but he finally looks appropriately priced. Slightly held up last start, he finished strongly once the race was effectively over. He can make amends here under Ethan Brown from a barrier that suits the pace setup.
(17) Majesticity has been somewhat underrated by the early market after being pulled up last start. He’s since trialled well, and there’s no reason he can’t give a good account of himself. When right, he can run to a solid level of form, and 50/1 undersells his chances.
(16) Jakivy has been well supported early, and rightly so. He was only beaten by Supernima on resumption and can improve with fitness.
(12) Rose De Vellor has trialled as though she’s returned a better racehorse.
Selections:
(14) Egerton
(17) Majesticity
(16) Jakivy
(12) Rose De Vellor
Race 8
(1) Rue De Royale had excuses for his poor performance last start after being heavily supported. If he can quickly return to form following that mishap, he should take care of this field.
(16) My Angel Shell was plain on resumption, but can improve sharply. Her third placing earlier this year, behind Just Like Gaby, reads well for a race of this quality.
(3) Shaalute was outclassed in stronger company last start, but prior to that was racing consistently in this grade. Back in softer company, he can return to his best.
(12) Shaime returned nicely at Caulfield. She’s a talented mare and has already proven herself at this track and distance.
Selections:
(1) Rue De Royale
(16) My Angel Shell
(3) Shaalute
(12) Shaime
