Summary of best bets:
Best bet: Race 10 No.1 Philia (small save No.4 Too Darn Discreet)
Two bet play: Race 2 Backing No.1 Chasing Aphrodite/No.6 Fiorenot
Two bet play: Race 7 Backing No.1 Birdman/No.6 Matcha Latte
Turf Talk:
- Rail back to the true, having been out 9m at the most recent meeting. Beautiful, fresh ground to race on.
- Light south-westerly winds should assist those on speed in circle races. But rail true should in reality give every horse their chance.
- Default to middle-to-outside lanes down the straight, but a couple of smaller fields in the sprint races, so expect the fields to stay together.
Key stats:
- Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott are going at 24% from their last 100 starters, with PoT of 13.9% – good going.
- Ethan Brown is clearly the form jockey in Victoria, going at 25% from his last 100 – he’s a jockey punters can back with confidence.
- Damian Lane has a great book of rides on Saturday so he can bounce back to his brilliant best. He’s ridden 8 winners from his last 100 rides, going at a PoT of -40.1%.
- Jamie Mott and Dean Yendall are ever-consistent, each going at 21% of late.
Race 1
(1) Zambales was held up at a crucial stage on debut at Randwick, which cost him ground (not winning). Step to 1100m looks ideal and trials prior to debut suggested good ability – just not sure that was an overly strong race in Sydney.
(3) Diameter hit the line strongly on debut in the Maribrynong Plate over 1000m back in spring. He just wanted to lay in a touch in a recent jump-out, with Damian Lane using the stick in the left hand.
(5) Shah Jahan was held together but looked good in a recent Cranbourne jump-out. Ethan Brown riding very well at the moment.
(7) Grinzinger Heart trialled alongside last week’s Prelude winner Closer To Free at Wodonga and went well there. She then led them up in Caulfield Heath jump-out, going on to win under a bit of riding from Craig Williams (who is suspended). Look, in a very even race, can make a case that she’s over the odds at $31.
(4) Hard Kick’s best piece of work was his straight-track jump-out here at Flemington. That exposure should stand him in good stead ahead of this debut. Liked the way he quickened close to the line at Werribee most recently.
(4) Hard Kick
(7) Grinzinger Heart
(5) Shah Jahan
(1) Zambales
Suggested bet: Backing Hard Kick/Grinzinger Heart
Race 2
Big field. Speed looks solid. (13) Extreme Virtue, (10) Tarvue, (8) Take Speed probably fight for the lead.
Tempo should suit (9) Fiorenot who is quickly rising through the grades. He steps in grade after two wins in BM70 company, but gets some needed weight relief as a result. Jordan Childs has ridden him in seven of nine starts, so knows him well. The step from 1800m to 2000m is ideal, come out of two fast run races where he has hit the line strongly. Like that they have given him four weeks to get over that hard run last time out, and he was able to win off four weeks two back. Ticks a heck of a lot of boxes.
Think (1) Chasing Aphrodite is a great roughie – keen to have something on him fresh. He has generally run well first-up across his career (albeit some of that is in the UK where his runs were generally spaced) and I liked a recent Ballarat jump-out. Ran well first up at 1800m last campaign and the 2000m of Saturday only suits better. Maps nicely and has D Lane in the saddle. A bit to like at $14.
(3) My Brothers Keeper drops in grade and seems like he’s looking for 2000m now. Will get back and charge late.
(5) Sunsets hit the lien strongly and is ready to peak third up for the new stable.
(9) Fiorenot
(1) Chasing Aphrodite
(3) My Brothers Keeper
(5) Sunsets
Suggested bet: Backing both Fiorenot and Chasing Aphrodite – keen.
Race 3
Bit of speed in the small field. (2) Sass Appeal will use the inside alley. (4) Sky Watcher and (7) Privateer won’t be far away.
Tricky little race.
(3) Custom beat (1) Ole Dancer home when they clashed in the Atlantic Jewel, but concede the former had an inferior run and that was 1200m. That said, Custom comes into this having had a fresh run where she had little luck at Caulfield. Ole Dancer has jumped-out nicely but certainly think she will be a way off her peak first up.
(2) Sass Appeal is the fit, in-form horse that will make her own luck up on speed. She comes through one of the strongest form races when second on debut at Sandown before two strong, on-speed wins at Pakenham and Flemington.
Wouldn’t shock if (4) Sky Watcher won this. Probably lacks the class of some of her rivals, but she beat the older horses at Sandown last time out and frankly I have serious question marks on some of the 3yo fillies form. The deeper she’s got into the campaign, the better she has gone. I do wonder if maybe she’s now looking for a mile? But at $35 in a small field you aren’t going to tick every box.
Tough race. Struggle to get either favourite as short as the market so must look elsewhere.
(4) Sky Watcher
(3) Custom
(2) Sass Appeal
(1) Ole Dancer
Suggested bet: Small plays Sky Watcher/Custom at odds to roll the faves.
Race 4
Moderate ol’ race.
Wasn’t much between (2) Immortal Star, (3) Perilous Fighter and (5) Tango Jewl when they clashed at Sale, the former winning. Give Tango Jewel a god hope of turning the tables on Immortal Star from that clash with a decent weight swing thanks to Jackson Radley’s claim. She will roll forward and make her own luck and is probably better suited by the drop back to 1100m as opposed to Immortal Star.
A few of these claim away form (1) Photograph, but she probably has the most upside in the field. Was ridden with intent late in a Flemington jump-out behind South Of India – a solid bit of work to have her cherry ripe for this. She raced without much luck last campaign.
(6) Jennyanydots didn’t have a lot of luck at Cranbourne fresh over the 955m and probably did as good a job as she could from where she was. Gate one probably not an ideal gate for her and a little query at 1100m but has the talent to win.
Tough race!
(5) Tango Jewel
(1) Photograph
(2) Immortal Star
(6) Jennyanydots
Suggested bet: Small plays Photograph/Tango Jewel
Race 5
Another really tough race.
Like (4) Ndola, freshened-up, back to 1200m off a solid Werribee jump-out. He’s only five goes at 1200m for three wins and a second (the failure being when he was first up off just one jump out and raced keenly), so don’t mind the drop back in trip at all. Drawn middle of the line so will have options. Should be strong late.
(7) Rue De Royale didn’t have the best of luck at Caulfield. Back up to 1200m suits. Goes well down the straight. Seems short enough at $2.70.
Thought (9) Behaviour was every bit as good a run as Rue De Royale last start and there hasn’t been much between them the last couple of meetings.
(5) Great Maximus is limited, but has the ratings to be in the finish of a race like this.
(4) Ndola
(9) Behaviour
(7) Rue De Royale
(5) Great Maximus
Suggested bet: There are better betting races on the card.
Race 6
(2) Saint George loses jockey Robert Whearty who has got the best out of this bloke at his last two starts but gets a smart 2kg claim for Logan Bates, which brings him in a kilo under his latest victory. They’ve given him an extra week between runs here but has had a nice tick-over jump-out to keep him up to the mark. Not 100% convinced he’s looking for 2500m but has the fitness base to run it out.
The toppy (1) Berkely Square is on a seven-day back-up; he won the 2024 Ballarat Cup the last time he raced twice in seven days. In fact, he has been adept on the back up throughout his career, twice running second, and running 6th in the Victoria Derby from four attempts – so that’s only a positive. His 2500m run in the Bart Cummings was excellent.
(7) Jenni’s Meadow was narrowly beaten by St George two back and arguably every bit as good a run. Concedes 2kg here but maps ideally and has to be in the mix.
(1) Berkley Square
(2) Saint George
(7) Jenni’s Meadow
(11) Steel Run
Suggested bet: No huge interest but could have a penny on Berkely Square – think he runs well here.
Race 7
The lack of any evident speed complicated this race.
Suspect (6) Matcha Latte will take up the running and that should give him every home of winning. Was strong to the line behind Sandpaper at Randwick first up off 35 weeks, so should no doubt strip fitter for that effort. He ran second to Here To Shock when leading them up in a Cameron Handicap and won a 1400m Provincial Midway Championship Qualifier at 1400m the last time he led them up. Should give plenty of cheek.
Surprised at how well (1) Birdman jump-out given he contested a Caulfield Cup and Queen Elizabeth at the end of last campaign. That said, when you look at his two first up runs since settling in Australia he has run bottlers at a mile and then last campaign when arguably a unlucky not to win over 1400m. Will need a bit of luck from the low draw but seems well over the odds at $17.
(5) Sabaj is a real talent. He was totally luckless first up at Randwick in the Silver Eagle last campaign before winning at Flemington during Cup week and then the Cranbourne Cup. Only had the one jump-out to prepare but should carry residual fitness given his last start was early-December. Little knock is gate one – he is going to need a bit of luck given he’s a horse that will drift back early.
The Hayes team are looking for three wins on the bounce in this race and both (2) Café Millenium and (8) Justadeel have claims. Not much between them at Caulfield and whilst I thought Café Millenium was a slightly better run, Justadeel has a weight edge and potential tactical advantage.
(1) Birdman
(6) Matcha Latte
(5) Sabaj
(2) Café Millenium
Suggested bet: Small plays on Birdman and Matcha Latte.
Race 8
The big boy, (1) Giga Kick looks to have returned in excellent order judging by his recent Caulfield trial. He went to the line just behind (7) My Gladiola there but I thought had plenty more to offer. He’s only had a few runs at 1000m, one of which was his second start down the straight when beating Lascars. Two of his short-course runs were when he was below his best and the other was when he took off early/injured himself at The Valley in the 2023 Carlyon.
Giving (5) Beiwacht a hope. He never looked comfortable in the Coolmore coming off a peak run and 35-day break – happy to forgive that. Whilst he may not be a 1000m horse, he has looked exceptionally sharp in his trials, he will have a tactical edge over several key rivals and Chris Waller knows a thing or two about getting a colt ready to win a big race. He’s right in the game.
(4) Tentyris took a run to find his best in the spring but the different here is he was off a 30-week spell last campaign and only 15 weeks this time in. Expect him to strip a lot fitter first up this campaign and there’s no doubt he’s still on an upward spiral. Still not 100% convinced how good this 3yo crop is, so for mine he’s too short at $2.40 against a couple of season horses up the top. But, by the same token, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he won.
(2) Baraqiel is a genuinely good 1000m horse in a race where a few have questions marks at the trip. He also flies fresh. Wasn’t 100% enamoured with how he layed in late at his most recent jump-out, but he will put himself in the early firing line and be in this a long way.
1 Giga Kick
(5) Beiwacht
(2) Baraqiel
(4) Tentyris
Suggested bet: Backing Giga Kick/Beiwacht
Race 9
Limited hopes here, in my humble.
(2) Sixties was ridden quietly in Sydney last time out and he exploded. Best last 600/400/200m splits of the meeting, beating a smart horse in Roselyn’s Star. That’s the right formline. He also has a win over Autumn Boy at 1400m on his CV and wasn’t disgraced in a track-record Golden Rose. The knock is there’s not much speed here and assume they again ride him quietly from the wide draw. The positive is he has the turn of foot to get him out of the shit.
Think the danger – if there is one – is (9) Asakura who is untapped and on the up. He won a handy maiden at Terang first up then exploded at Geelong last start. He’s still raw and green, but possesses huge upside, and will have a tactical advantage over the favourite.
Not enamoured with the Manfred formline a few of these come through as it was a bunched finish/rated moderately, but (3) Space Rider did a good job to sit deep and win first up and he should be better suited at 1400m.
(2) Sixties
(9) Asakura
(3) Space Rider
(1) West Of Swindon
Suggested bet: Don’t think there’s much edge in the market but only taking 2 and 9 in the quaddie.
Race 10
Keen on (1) Philia. She has had a really good build up to this 1400m assignment first up with three nice trials in Queensland before a searching hit-out at Cranbourne with Ethan Brown on board once settled in down in Victoria. Those four hit-out should have her cherry ripe for 1400m first up and she’s a mare that can push forward for an in-form Ethan Brown and make her own luck up on speed. Think she should be favourite.
(4) Too Darn Discreet will probably be a better chance second up at a mile but loved her recent Ballarat trial. She wasn’t able to keep up fresh at 1400m last campaign before bouncing off that run to win second up at 1600m. If she can stay in touch early then she will be in the finish. Either way, she’s in for a big campaign.
(3) Wrote To Arataki was good to us last start and she will again run an honest race up on speed. Think she will come under a touch more pressure here after being rated to perfection by Dean Yendall last time out, but she’s fairly bombproof.
(1) Philia
(4) Too Darn Discreet
(3) Wrote To Arataki
(10) Paradise City
Suggested bet: Keen Philia, small save Too Darn Discreet
