| Race | Horse | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | 4. Maison Louis | Best Bet |
| 8 | 14. Autumn Glow | Next Best |
| 1 | 3. Rotagilla / 4. Strawberry Impact | Best Value |
| 7 | 12. Lady Shenandoah / 1. Briasa | Next Best Value |
Turf Talk:
- True – Expecting an off-speed and off-rail advantage with the rail back in the True.
The Stats That Matter:
- Over the past 90 days Adam Hyeronimus is striking at a impressive 37.1% with a positive POT of +104.4%.
- Bjorn Baker is the stable to follow over the past 90 days up to $10SP, the team is striking at 26.8% with a impressive POT of +25.1%. They are effective with runners first, second and third up.
Race 1
Intriguing BM78 to kick off proceedings here at Randwick. Keen to attack the race with a two-bet play. (3) Rotagilla was a good thing beaten first up off some slick trials. He looks better suited here second up rising in trip, with the cherry on top being the rain-affected deck. (4) Strawberry Impact savaged the line last start when dropping back to 1400m; back to 1500m now is a big tick and so is the inside draw and wet track. (5) Chicama was well backed last start when winning – this is a steep rise in class but he has claims. (2) Isana maps well from gate 5 and has been well supported in early markets. Tough to line the form up but we will respect the market.
Selections:
(3) Rotagilla
(4) Strawberry Impact
(5) Chicama
(2) Isana
Suggested Bet – Rotagilla WIN/ Strawberry Impact WIN
Race 2
Tricky Highway event. (6) Big Opinion was impressive first up before dumping the rider second up, out to a big price now and goes on top – needing luck though. (7) Kreon brings back-to-back solid figures but is struggling to win. Draws well and gets a red-hot Lloyd aboard. (2) Pony Soprano peaks now and finds McDonald in the saddle, back to 1400m is the slight issue. (15) Fan Harder and (8) Concoction round out the numbers.
Selections:
(6) Big Opinion
(7) Kreon
(2) Pony Soprano
(15) Fan Harder
(8) Concoction
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 3
One of the harder races on the card with plenty of form lines coming from all over the place. I’ll lean the way of the NZ import (8) Transcend, who now turns up in the Michael Freedman camp off the back of a dominant last start win. She brings smart ratings to this event and should find the 1-1. Waller has (4) Jellicious in career best form – she is coming off three straight wins but does need a good ride from the wide draw. (3) Editing was plain first up after being very well supported; the big tick Saturday is the softer track. (7) Rapbidash was too bad to be true last start – trusting that SP here and expecting a bounce back.
Selections:
(8) Transcend
(4) Jellicious
(3) Editing
(7) Rapbidash
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 4
Wide-open Midway this week. Massive field with plenty of speed on suggests run-on horses will get their chance. (1) Meridiana will be licking her lips looking at this tempo up front; she has an elite turn of speed and does handle the give in the track. (10) Vetwelve comes off a career-best last start figure behind Modella. The use of the claim aids her chances here, as does the good gate. I expect (6) Prince Of Sorts to make the step to Midway grade. Another who attacks this race coming off career best form. Outside of that, it looks a race where (15) Piraeus could put in a smart effort – right tempo and gets Moreira back in the saddle.
Selections:
(1) Meridiana
(10) Vetwelve
(6) Prince Of Sorts
(15) Piraeus
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 5
A race in three on paper. I’ll stick with (12) United Kingdom who was able to overcome an on-speed bias and round up his opposition on a dry Rosehill deck. He gets to town now and looks well placed. (2) Sun God was impressive when winning first up off the 126-day break, tick-over trial since and is ready to tackle 2000m. (8) King Pedro brought strong claims to his Australian debut, he copped an on-speed track as well as the big weight. Up to 2000m here and drop in weight is ideal. The consistent (1) Glad You Think So rounds out the numbers with the 3kg claim.
Selections:
(12) United Kingdom
(2) Sun God
(8) King Pedro
(1) Glad You Think So
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 6
(8) Istolea Merc returned in splendid order first up with a dominant win and a career peak rating to go with it. Typically of the stable, I expect him to further improve second up, with the cherry on top being the booking of James. (3) Mogul Monarch was outstanding last start back to 1100m – that’s his best trip. The use of the claim and long Randwick straight suit also. (1) Brave One is the class horse. He has to lug 61.5kg but will be very much suited on this slightly rain-affected track. Outside of that, (2) So Naive can figure in the finish off some solid trials.
Selections:
(8) Istolea Merc
(3) Mogul Monarch
(1) Brave One
(2) So Naive
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 7
Outstanding edition of the Russell Balding Stakes over 1300m. Plenty of speed expected up front in the big field. Keen to attack the race with a two-bet play. (12) Lady Shenandoah had no luck in the Everest, clipping heels before having no room in the straight. She’ll eat up the extra 100m and gets McDonald back aboard. Look for her to use the 3-wide lane to blend into the race. (1) Briasa was given a negative steer in the Everest, ending any chance of winning. What I did like was his L600m, 4th best of the race. With the pair of gates he’ll get the gun run and can bounce back. (2) Jimmysstar was exceptional in the Everest, the extra 100m suits but he does draw very sticky in barrier 4. (3) War Machine was too bad to be true in the Everest — I expect him to bounce back here third up.
Selections:
(12) Lady Shenandoah
(1) Briasa
(2) Jimmysstar
(3) War Machine
Suggested Bet – Lady Shenandoah WIN/ Briasa WIN
Race 8
The feature of the day, the $10mil Golden Eagle. Outstanding race on paper. I can’t go past the unbeatable mare (14) Autumn Glow – she’s been impeccable this preparation and again looks to get an ideal set up here from the draw. There is plenty of speed on paper, with James in the saddle she will get the run of the race and explode for her GF. The Japanese raider (12) Panja Tower has to be in the picture, G1 mile win two back, before a dominant G3 1200m win in his latest run. He will get back but does have an elite turn of speed. (3) Linebacker returned in outstanding order in the Silver Eagle, he maps a treat now second up and should get every chance. (4) Sepals was galloped on last start before dropping out – look for him to bounce back.
Selections:
(14) Autumn Glow
(12) Panja Tower
(3) Linebacker
(4) Sepals
Suggested Bet – Autumn Glow WIN/Panja Tower EW
Race 9
Keen to side with the O’Shea & Charlton-trained (4) Maison Louis here — he was super last start in the Hill Stakes behind Lindermann, that’s A1 form. The extra 100m and inside draw read well. (6) Wootton Verni has claims off a smart last start win when recording a peak figure; the query here though is the short odds. This looks a touch harder. (15) State Of America can be a hard horse to catch but has a smart 3/6 2000m record; at odds, he’s in this. (10) Imperialist hits this race in form – fourth up now and peaks fitness-wise.
Selections:
(4) Maison Louis
(6) Wootton Verni
(15) State Of America
(10) Imperialist
Suggested Bet – Maison Louis WIN
Race 10
It looks to be (8) Polyglot’s race to lose here in the last. Four consecutive runs at the unique 1100m Rosehill setup have seen him put in huge efforts but come unstuck with the chute start. A move to Randwick now reads well and should see him in the winner’s stall. (7) Golden Straand is the danger – career best form and looks suited now up to 1300m. The knock is the gate. (11) Midnight Dynamite ties into the form of Golden Straand, the wet track is the key change to his chances today. Outside of that, (12) Verbil goes in the mix.
Selections:
(8) Polyglot
(7) Golden Straand
(11) Midnight Dynamite
(12) Verbil
Suggested Bet – No Bet
