Summary of Best Bets:
Race 5 #2 Tajawal – Been good in better races. Well placed this time around.
Race 2 #5 El Pensador – No luck last start. Would like Jones to take off early if they are all walking.
Turf Talk:
- Rail 2m
- Heavy 10 track Monday and with 33 degrees predicted Tuesday and Wednesday it will be a testing day for the horses.
Stats that matter:
- Ryan Maloney has ridden 53 from 220 this season at 24%. Just seems to be making the right calls and has some winning chances again today.
- Mark Currie is training as good as anyone. This season he has 52 winners from 237 runners at nearly 22%.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Little to no speed engaged and this could be very messy. Might be the worst race of the month. I had two genuine chances and they are both scratched.
(5) Ace’s In Bloom about the only other one I can talk about but I don’t trust her. Just mixes form too much for me. Good effort last start, does that mean due for a shocker?
(2) Bokuden has placed in 2 of 3 at this track and not beaten a hell of a long way last start.
(6) Mishani Empire has won 2 of her last 3 but in complete bush races and against poor opposition.
Selections:
(5) Ace’s In Bloom
(2) Bokuden
(6) Mishani Empire
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2:
Small and tricky field again here.
Absolutely no luck at all for (3) Man Of The Town last start. Looked like it could win but just up bums and stuck on the fence as they made their runs. Takes the claim here to help and can win with a bit more luck.
(4) Zou Big Boy is fitter for recent runs and is in the Gollan yard. If there were storms around he has won 3 of 4 on heavy ground. If the track dries out it might play away from him a bit.
(5) El Pensador promised to be well above average. His runs this prep have been plain on paper. Hard to know what would have happened last start as he was checked and pulled out of the race as he went to take a split. He could be a sharp improver and win without surprising.
Selections:
(5) El Pensador
(3) Man Of The Town
(4) Zou Big Boy
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (5) El Pensador
Race 3:
800m Maiden with a few apprentices involved.
Another one of them days where on top selections scratch, Prucia was that horse here.
(3) Mr Playtime loves this trip (placed in all three goes). Won a trial in November and only has to overcome the wide gate to be a genuine winning chance here.
(2) Mishani Hercules is a 12 start maiden but can use the good gate and worth thoughts in exotics.
(7) Excess Capital is limited but joins a new stable and might find this easier.
Simply not interested once Prucia come out.
Selections:
(3) Mr Playtime
(2) Mishani Hercules
(7) Excess Capital
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4:
This is a handy BM62 here.
Had to be taken with the debut win of (4) Storm Merchant. Led them up at the coast, showed a turn of foot and put them away easily. Harder here but might improve lengths off that run.
(6) Exceloquent looked outstanding winning two runs back. Sat on tearaway leaders back and went straight past to put a gap on them. Not great out of the gates and wide the trip last start. Beaten as a short priced fav but still brave last start.
(1) Seveer showed excellent ability in first prep but stopped like shot in a good race last start. Market best guide with it.
(2) Metalcraft is a handy one, just feel these might be a touch classier.
(8) Tengun Jessie was a drifter but a winner on debut. Better for that run.
Selections:
(4) Storm Merchant
(6) Exceloquent
(1) Seveer
(8) Tengun Jessie
(2) Metalcraft
Suggested Bet: Quinella 4-6
Race 5:
I have liked the runs of (2) Tajawal since joining the new stable. Beaten 1L behind the in-form Margot’s Choice and then 6th of 15 in a good BM70 at the sunny coast. Fitter for those runs, this is a bit easier and Maloney is in great form.
(1) Forever Fortune lacks class but is one who might go to the lead and with the 3kg claim for a decent apprentice, might be hard to run down. Still a limited type though.
(12) Making Eyes bolted in a Maiden here last start but this is harder. Needs to improve again off that win to go close again here.
Selections:
(2) Tajawal
(1) Forever Fortune
(12) Making Eyes
Suggested Bet: Win (2) Tajawal
Race 6:
Well, (1) Family Of League is better than this grade but no official trials and likely to need the run and further. Keep an eye on market, if there is support, I’d be happy to follow.
(4) Resolute Lady has been around the money lately but in genuine bush BM55 grade. Limited ability, can land midfield from the barrier though.
(6) Echo Hunter next best but a long time between wins.
This is a steer clear race for me.
Selections:
(1) Family Of League
(4) Resolute Lady
(6) Echo Hunter
Suggested Bet: None
Race 7:
Good race to finish, this one.
(5) He’s For The Girls has only won 2 of 19 but I feel he is better than that. Month between runs and back to 1350m is suitable. He wants a drying track.
(1) Ambassadors loses Thompson for the apprentice, but 3kg off helps. They were aggressive last start and won easily. Expecting them to push forward from the wide gate.
(8) Land Bank was a pass mark at first start for Gollan. I believe he might have needed that run and can strip fitter this time around. Should find a good spot from a decent gate.
(7) Boomroux has shown ability but mixed form. Stable still flying and he’s a winning chance here for sure.
Easy to make a case for each of those mentioned. Shouldn’t be much between them here.
Selections:
(8) Land Bank
(1) Ambassadors
(5) He’s For The Girls
(7) Boomroux
Suggested Bet: Box trifecta 1,5,7,8
