Summary of best bets:
Next best: Race 4 No.6 Miss Maranda
Best bet: Race 6 No.5 Esmahli
Race 1:
(1) Dali’s Picasso has been well held in his past two runs, but both came on rain-affected ground. Prior to that, he was well respected by the market, starting $4.40 against this race’s second elect, Good Lordy Me. He has trialled as though he is sound and happy between runs, and he holds a performance rating that gives him a genuine chance. Returning to his home track with Jamie Mott booked is a clear signal of intent. He is a much better chance than the market suggests at double figures
(2) Distillery is lightly raced and has shown promise. He has not done much racing in the past year, but he ran well at Cranbourne prior to his long spell in November last year. I am not convinced a slowly run race first-up provides the base required for him to be at his absolute best here. He looks under the odds, though still deserves to be prominent in the market.
(3) Good Lordy Me posted a strong figure last start in reasonable time, but I have reservations about his ability to truly run out ten furlongs. He looks vulnerable at his current price, though he can still win.
(10) Winter Grace has raced wide without cover in her past two starts and performed credibly. She has a chance if ridden more economically this time.
Selections:
(1) Dali’s Picasso
(2) Distillery
(3) Good Lordy Me
(10) Winter Grace
Suggested Bet: Win (1) Dali’s Picasso
Race 2:
(1) Karburan would be my favourite with limited confidence. He has previously stayed strongly in races up to 3000 metres, will likely control the pace, and should give a sight for a long way.
(5) Jealous backs up quickly from Saturday, where she finished third behind Shockletz and Leonchroi, both talented stayers. This is her first attempt at the distance, but on the quick turnaround she should be able to run it out.
(3) Genrichero is the model of consistency. I am not convinced he is crying out for 3000 metres, but he should stay well enough to be competitive.
(2) Natural Ruler can acquit himself well.
Selections:
(1) Karburan
(5) Jealous
(3) Genrichero
(2) Natural Ruler
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3:
(5) Inspiring has trialled well and looks ready to make an impression on debut.
(10) Fundamental Nature has also trialled well and is from a good yard.
(1) Kings Commission resumes from a lengthy spell but has posted some solid performance ratings in the past.
(6) Valedictorian is extremely consistent and should again race well.
Selections:
(5) Inspiring
(10) Fundamental Nature
(1) Kings Commission
(6) Valedictorian
Suggested Bet: No bet
GET Dean Watling’s Warwick Farm tips
Race 4:
(6) Miss Maranda was excellent when fourth in a high quality Maiden. She was forced into inferior ground yet still closed off clearly better than standard over the final 400 metres. She has a much stronger chance than the early market suggests.
(10) Somersault has been beaten in what are, admittedly, very ordinary Maidens at her past two starts. Grahame Begg is an elite trainer, but the extent to which the market is chasing him at present is relentless and she simply cannot be starting inside $3.00.
(7) Miss Waikato has trialled well and is worth including at big odds.
(3) Koko comes through a reasonable Maiden and can make her presence felt.
Selections:
(6) Miss Maranda
(10) Somersault
(7) Miss Waikato
(3) Koko
Suggested Bet: Win (6) Miss Maranda (Next Best)
Race 5:
(1) Let’sfacethemusic has been luckless in both runs this preparation against stronger opposition than he meets here. He has been a Stakes performer in the past and can return to winning form in what looks a fairly moderate contest.
(7) Immortal Star raced ungenerously under apprentice Zoe Waller last start. She is a talented mare at her best, and the booking of Irish rider Robert Whearty is interesting.
(3) Darts Daly has trialled as though he has returned in good order and can run to a winning level.
(8) White Bear has resumed well and can give a sight if Bree Temple gets the ride right.
Selections:
(1) Let’sfacethemusic
(7) Immortal Star
(3) Darts Daly
(8) White Bear
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6:
(5) Esmahli has already run to a level that would win a race of this quality at both starts this preparation. He is a clear and deserving favourite, even before factoring in any upside. The race he comes through last start rated approximately nine lengths faster than the other two 1200 metre races on the card, and he should be trusted moving forward as a form reference.
(4) Dubai Adventure profiles well after a stylish debut win in reasonable time. He is a talented horse, but I cannot have him anywhere near Esmahli’s price.
(1) Chicago Blues drops in grade after a solid effort in the Blue Sapphire Stakes and should give a sight for a long way.
(7) Brilliant Horizon closed strongly over five furlongs last start and will appreciate stepping up to six.
Selections:
(5) Esmahli
(4) Dubai Adventure
(1) Chicago Blues
(7) Brilliant Horizon
Suggested Bet: Win (5) Esmahli (Best bet)
Race 7:
(9) Sketch measured up well in Listed company last start, finishing midfield. He maps to hold a forward position from barrier one, and around $4.00 slightly undersells his chances.
(6) Welcometotheshow finished strongly behind Storm Season a fortnight ago after being restrained from a wide gate. I have Sketch marked favourite over him, but he is still a major player.
(8) Russian Front has turned his form around significantly this preparation. The step to 1500 metres may test him, but on current form he is well capable of winning.
(1) Blazing Harry has not reached his past peak this prep, but if he can improve even a length, he is well and truly in the mix.
Selections:
(9) Sketch
(6) Welcometotheshow
(8) Russian Front
(1) Blazing Harry
Suggested Bet: Win (9) Sketch
