| Race | Horse | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| R2 | 9. Strawberry Impact | Best Bet |
| R7 | 1. Grand Prairie | Next Best |
| R9 | 2. Maison Louis / 6. Grand Pierro | Best Value |
Turf Talk:
- Rail True. Expecting a fair track with tempo likely to dictate races overall. Worse than midfield looks to be a disadvantage on a firm deck.
The stats that matter:
- Over the past 90 days Adma Hyeronimus is striking at a impressive 32.3 percent with a positive POT of +66.9 percent.
- The Matthew Smith stable is one to follow over the past 90 days up to 10 dollars SP. The team is striking at 34.4 percent with a impressive POT of +53.2 percent. They are effective with runners first, second and third up.
Race 1
Intriguing edition of the Max Lees Classic over the 900m for the 2yos.
Keen to side with the Michael Freedman-trained (8) Mystical. The filly looked sharp in her sole 818m trial when weaving a passage through the field and extending away sharply after the line. She maps ideally and goes on top.
(7) Jaipur Maison looks the horse over the odds. Very well bred, with 900m right up the breeding alley. Untouched in two trials but extended away past the post well in both.
I respect the current favourite (3) Seeiaye for the in form Peter Snowden stable. $4.20 is a touch short, although she looked sharp in two trials.
(4) Tenenbaum is next best, not bred to handle 900m but the trials have suggested he may.
Selections:
(8) Mystical
(7) Jaipur Maison
(3) Seeiaye
(4) Tenenbaum
Suggested Bet: SMALL Mystical + Jaipur Maison WIN
Race 2
It is (9) Strawberry Impact’s race to lose on paper. Blake Ryan has this mare in career best form leading into this event. Her late splits in her past two efforts have screamed “get me to 1600m,” and she does so now. Look for her to run over the top of them late.
(1) Broadway Bouncer bounced back to form last start over the 1500m. Up to 1600m now back on a firm deck reads well also.
(8) Perfect Justice gets in light with the 2kg claim of Molly Bourke. Last-start winner over the 1600m and must be respected.
(2) Prince Of Sorts is next best.
Selections:
(9) Strawberry Impact
(1) Broadway Bouncer
(8) Perfect Justice
(2) Prince Of Sorts
Suggested Bet: Strawberry Impact WIN
Race 3
Tricky Highway event over the 1600m.
I will side with the recent Highway form in (8) Upwardly Mobile. Peak fitness and should find this company slightly easier than recent events.
The parade watch is on (5) Off The Scale. Tough ask fresh over the 1600m but looked good in a recent 1100m trial. Any late market support must be respected.
(12) Sweet Treats gets in light at the weights and goes in the mix. Last start winner but will find this tougher.
(15) Mount Bona leaps in distance but gets Lloyd and must be respected.
Selections:
(8) Upwardly Mobile
(5) Off The Scale
(12) Sweet Treats
(15) Mount Bona
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 4
Good race on paper.
Happy to forgive the plain last-start effort of (5) Rubi’s Serve on the wet deck. Go back to first-up and she was dominant on the Kensington track. A repeat of that has her winning this.
(9) Miss Hades is the horse at odds who can run well. Sharp fresh record for a Portelli stable finding form. Smart trials and will land up on speed.
The penny has dropped for (10) Maid Of Moolah. Back-to-back impressive wins finally taking her smart trials to race day. She has been kept up to the mark with a slight tick-over trial and looks well placed.
(1) Waimarie is next best but does need to improve. Back to 1400m is a slight query.
Selections:
(5) Rubi’s Serve
(9) Miss Hades
(10) Maid Of Moolah
(1) Waimarie
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 5
Good speed expected up front which is key.
(8) Rotagilla could not have been more impressive last start after a luckless first-up effort. Wet or dry is no issue and he maps well from the draw.
(4) Meridiana is clearly the horse to beat but she is yet to tick the firm track box. Looking at her form and figures she is a better horse with the sting out.
(5) Fear No Evil will land up on speed from the draw coming off a dominant first-up win. Respected.
Outside of that, (13) Rapbidash can run into the minors.
Selections:
(8) Rotagilla
(4) Meridiana
(5) Fear No Evil
(13) Rapbidash
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 6
Tricky event overall.
If (5) Glad You Think So turns up in his last start form he will likely win this. He does need luck to overcome the wide draw and sticky 1850m starting point.
(11) Kind Words gets back on the home deck third up and looks well placed with Clark in the saddle.
(8) Sun God is another who peaks third-up here bringing back-to-back consistent runs. Back to 1850m is no issue.
The consistent (4) Pocketing goes in the mix also. From the smart draw he should land up on speed and prove hard to beat.
Selections:
(5) Glad You Think So
(11) Kind Words
(8) Sun God
(4) Pocketing
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 7
The 3yo Spring Stakes feature comes up here over the 1600m. Keen to side with the class horse of the field in (1) Grand Prairie. Happy to forgive last start when posted wide throughout at Flemington and throwing his head off the entire run. Back to Sydney way of going and finds a very suitable race at set weights.
(9) Rosa Incanta peaks third up and gets Clark in the saddle. Another last-start winner with upside.
(7) Long Legs and (8) Probability Theory present off dominant last start wins in easier grade. They both need to take steps up here, but in 3yo grade that can be done.
Selections:
(1) Grand Prairie
(9) Rosa Incanta
(7) Long Legs
(8) Probability Theory
Suggested Bet: Grand Prairie WIN
Race 8
The feature of the day is the 1 million dollar Hunter over 1300m. Slightly above average tempo expected up front.
(3) Coal Crusher attacks this race for the third consecutive year and brings the best form into this race across all three attempts. He was terrific last start on the unsuited wet track and gives the grand final peak feel Pride often achieves.
The clear danger is the lightly raced (14) Yorkshire. Back-to-back electric trials and gets in well at the weights. My slight knocks are the wide draw and his first-up figures. He is a much better second and third-up galloper.
(11) Accredited gets in well at the weights and peaks third up. He can be hard to trust but gets his chance from the draw.
(16) Clear Thinking will appreciate the firm deck and the rise to 1300m. The perfect draw helps.
Selections:
(3) Coal Crusher
(14) Yorkshire
(11) Accredited
(16) Clear Thinking
Suggested Bet: Coal Crusher WIN
Race 9
No speed on paper at all here in The Beauford. The 2300m starting point gives gallopers around 300m until the first turn. Cracking race on paper. Happy to attack with a two-bet strategy.
(2) Maison Louis was only beaten 3.1 lengths two starts back behind Lindermann and Attrition. That is A1 form. Forget last start when his wheels spun in the wet. Trusting the 3.70 SP and expecting the move up in trip and to a firm deck to see him rocket back to form.
(6) Grand Pierro is absolutely flying. Terrific two back behind the Melbourne Cup winner Half Yours before having no luck in the MV Cup behind Onesmoothoperator. Dry and 2300m reads well.
(7) Firm Agreement is next best and needs a good ride from the gate.
Selections:
(2) Maison Louis
(6) Grand Pierro
(7) Firm Agreement
Suggested Bet: Maison Louis + Grand Pierro WIN
Race 10
Solid speed and a big field to round out the program.
(4) Mayfair has come up big odds. Terrific effort fresh before a total forgive in the Golden Eagle.
(12) Just Party has trialled well and goes super fresh. The barrier is the concern though.
(14) Brave One rounds out the numbers. Brings smart figures but is yet to tick the dry deck box. Any rain and he goes on top.
Selections:
(4) Mayfair
(12) Just Party
(2) Fire Star
Suggested Bet: No bet
