Summary of Best Bets:
Race 2 – Backing No.2 Glamour Model and No.6 Sealand
Race 5 – Backing No.10 Salarae and No.12 Flash Kermy
Race 7 – Backing No.6 The Negotiator, smaller on No.12 Miss Kasei
Race 8 – Backing No.6 Best Of The Best with something smaller on roughie No.2 Cameron Falls
Turf Talk:
- Track has been racing better post-Christmas once the Kikuyu got some growing weather
- Pattern has been to get off the inside lane or two.
- Long straight which gives horses a chance to wind up.
- 1000/1100/1200m races come out of a sprint chute off the top of the home straight, barriers of little importance.
Stats that matter:
- Daniel Stackhouse is striking at 20% from his last 100 rides with a POT of +27.9%.
- Ben Melham has an excellent Pakenham record, riding 39 winners from 195 rides at a 20% strike rate.
- John McArdle is the in-form trainer at the meeting, producing 25 winners from his last 100 runners at a POT of +50.3%.
- Anthony & Sam Freedman have trained 21 winners from their last 100 runners, while Ciaron Maher has also produced 21 winners in that span at a POT of +25.1%.
- Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr target Pakenham with quality stock, with 85 winners from 399 runners (21.3%).
- Local trainer Phillip Stokes has a strong record here, training 81 winners from 378 runners at the track.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Small field with lots of intertwining form.
The debutants contested the same jump-out at Werribee and the standout was clearly (4) Tough Romance who trucked up down the outside to run second in the heat. He was under a huge hold from Harry Coffey and could’ve gone straight past Eurocanto if tested. He never got a crack at them in his other jump-out. The knock is he’s not the best beginner but small field should help, and like him debuting at 1100m, not 1000m.
The lone filly, (5) Blue Jeans Talk was terrific on debut. Held up in behind, she probably should’ve finished closer in what was a strong Maiden. 1100m ideal and has race experience on a couple of her rivals.
Selections:
(4) Tough Romance
(5) Blue Jeans Talk
(1) Around The Marx
Suggested Bet: Missed the price Tough Romance. Can’t dive in at the $1.60. Maybe a small quinella 4 and 5.
Race 2:
Fave, (4) Meet Me Halfway, has the form on the board but looks limited. She can push forward and will prove hard to get by, but can’t get her as short as the $2.80 on offer.
(6) Sealand’s latest jump-out was good. Settled on speed and responded nicely to riding late. Time was solid. Lloyd Kennewell stable are flying at the moment and she can run well on debut.
Don’t think (2) Glamour Model is the horse that lured Ben Melham to Pakenham on a Thursday night but irrespective, she will benefit from his services. She comes through a strong form race at Stony Creek on debut and jump-outs prior were solid. Over the odds at $7.
(7) Sunset Royale had absolutely no luck on debut.
Selections:
(6) Sealand
(2) Glamour Model
(7) Sunset Royale
(4) Meet Me Halfway
Suggested Bet: Not going overboard, but small bets on (2) Glamour Model and (6) Sealand. Running double 2,6 into 4,8 (in race 3) for those so inclined.
Race 3:
(4) Taupin clearly has ability going by his jump-outs. Showed a strong turn of foot two back at Pakenham and then went to the line under a big hold at Sandown most recently. The only concern is that recent trial was 1000m and not mad on horses debuting at 1000m off a 1000m jump-out.
(8) Grand Old Bowler was backed off the map on debut before having no luck at Cranbourne. She also didn’t seem to know how to put the race away once she got clean air in the straight, so blinkers going on is ideal. She can certainly win.
(3) Lightwatch looks the soft spot in the market as a $2.45 fave. Can win, but comes through what I have marked a fairly moderate Maiden on debut.
Selections:
(4) Taupin
(8) Grand Old Bowler
(3) Lightwatch
(2) Robeey Awe
Suggested Bet: Maybe a small quinella 4 and 8.
Race 4:
Not a lot of speed. Maybe (7) Blushing Tycoon from (5) Empressive Enuff who draws a better gate.
Can throw a blanket over these. A very tricky contest.
The toppy (1) Otago has been deep throughout at both recent runs so will appreciate a soft trail from gate one. Best is good enough, concern is he has been laying in up the straight of late and I worry if he is feeling something.
(4) The Western Front and (6) Mometz come through the same race as Otago and both beat him home. The Western Front was only first-up so should derive very good benefit, while Mometz had no luck and gets the blinkers back on.
(3) Little Cointreau gets past 1500m for the first time in his career. He has had a couple of starts for Charlotte Littlefield now, hitting the line strongly at Flemington most recently. The mile seems worth a try and his ratings profile puts him right in then finish here.
Could be a really tactical affair.
Selections:
(3) Little Cointreau
(1) Otago
(4) The Western Front
(6) Mometz
Suggested Bet: No thanks.
Race 5:
Heat of the rich Future Stars Series.
Speed seems to come from (3) Midnight Man, (12) Flash Kermy and maybe (11) Sapphire Siren.
Have loved the trials of (10) Salarae, a 4yo mare who makes her debut tonight. Cliff Brown has produced a couple of nice horses through the Future Stars Series in previous years and looks to have another one here. She will take her time to balance up early but will be super strong late. She has a lovely turn of foot and draws ideally out of the 1200m chute start.
Think the market has under-rated (12) Flash Kermy who will roll forward on debut and take plenty of catching. She has been well educated at the jump-outs and she beat a subsequent winner in Baked in her recent Sandown outing. The key is she could get a reasonably soft time on speed with a few key rivals spotting her a start. $18 appeals.
(7) Light Moves looks a nice son of Zoustar and he has the benefit of Ben Melham on board for his debut. Melham rode this bloke in his most recent outing where he cruised to the line under a big hold at Cranbourne. Wide draw only an advantage for him out of the chute as it will ensure clean air.
(8) Voronya is another who has trialled up very nicely for his debut.
Selections:
(10) Salarae
(12) Flash Kermy
(7) Light Moves
(8) Voronya
Suggested Bet: Backing both (10) Salarae and (12) Flash Kermy
Quinella: 7,10,12
Trifecta: 7,10,12 // 7,8,10,12 // 7,8,9,10,11,12
Race 6:
The form around (7) Tuscaloosa Gem is outstanding and she has jumped-out very well for this resumption. The only time she saw 1000m was in the driving rain here at Pakenham when narrowly beaten, in what turned out to be a reasonable Maiden. Ultimately going to be better at 1100/1200m, but this is her race to lose. That said, market hasn’t missed her.
Equally, as the market has identified, (6) Smash Blue looks the main danger. She won a handy Maiden first-up at Seymour before being strong late at Cranbourne last time out. Pakenham should suit her turn of foot.
Best roughie in the race might be (2) Fullproof. Had a long spell and clearly taken time to get ready to return to the races judging by jump-outs in November, December and January, but his best is good enough to figure in the finish. Latest trial was solid and with luck off the low draw can figure in the finish.
(3) Dapper Don has been flying since joining the Helen Burns stable and he had no luck at Cranbourne last start.
Selections:
(7) Tuscaloosa Gem
(6) Smash Blue
(2) Fullproof
(3) Dapper Don
Suggested Bet: Exacta 7 to beat 6. Trifecta: 7 // 6 // 2,3
Race 7:
Provided they can make ground, (6) The Negotiator looks over the odds. He was luckless at Stony Creek two back before making good late ground in a race that didn’t change complexion at Sandown last time out. His best form comes here at Pakenham. Not a regular winner, but this is a very suitable race and you can back him E/W at the price.
(12) Miss Kasei can give a sight at big odds. She set a genuine tempo getting to 1400m for the first time last start and wasn’t in the best ground hard against the fence. At peak fitness now, with a senior taking over, she should prove hard to beat. $21 seems over the odds.
(5) Mont Saint Michel is racing well and worth another shot at 1400m. Win rated quite well two back at Colac and then had no luck at Moe last time out. Quick back up/peak fitness/soft trialling run all positives – just may need luck getting way from the fence.
(2) Betwitchery drops in grade and should be nearing peak fitness third-up. Dropped out alarmingly at Geelong last start but the best of her form would be competitive.
(8) Storm Leopard comes through a high-rating Maiden win at Geelong at his second start but the form has been a little suspect out of the race. Interesting that he’s seven weeks between runs into this – wonder if there was a setback or it is by design? Either way, his jump-outs have been just fair and I can’t price him anywhere near the $2.35 on offer. Can win, but under the odds.
Selections:
(6) The Negotiator
(12) Miss Kasei
(5) Mont Saint Michel
(8) Storm Leopard
Suggested Bet: Like the race. Backing (6) The Negotiator E/W, something very small (12) Miss Kasei at big odds.
Race 8:
Really good race to finish.
Excellent recent jump-out from (6) Best Of The Best and Ben Melham is sticking around until the last race to ride, having ridden him in both jump-outs. Debut win at Sale was good and, if anything, appears to have improved this time in. Strikes dry ground for the first time and maps nicely from gate seven. I think he should be shorter.
(2) Cameron Falls looks a terrific roughie in the race. He ran well in a hot form race at Kilmore prior to a short spell. Loved his recent jump-out. Think he’s over the odds at $21.
(1) Bossy Star is probably better on wet than dry but he’s been excellent since joining the Laurie yard. Trialled up nicely for this.
(5) Russian Front will get back but hammer the line.
(4) Insain Harry is racing very well and has a fitness edge on some key rivals. Will roll forward and make his own luck. Challenges are getting away from three tight turning tracks onto the wide-open expanses of Pakenham and this is much tougher than the races he has been contesting.
Selections:
(6) Best Of The Best
(2) Cameron Falls
(1) Bossy Star
(5) Russian Front
Suggested Bet: Like the race, backing (6) Best of the Best and (2) Cameron Falls.
