Betsy’s Set: Rosehill Saturday

Betsy’s Best:

The Day In 50 Words:

Turf Talk: 

• Rosehill Rail +3m – history suggests lanes 1–4 in the straight are strongly inferior, with lanes 4–8 likely to become key as the day progresses.
• 1100–1200m chute races heavily favour those landing forward of midfield due to the shape of the course.

The Numbers That Matter:

• Andrew Adkins is a jockey in form, striking at 21.2% with a positive POT of +25.2% in the metro scene over the past 90 days up to $10 SP.
• Michael Freedman horses look somewhat overbet over the past 90 days up to $10 SP, running at 17.5% SR but losing at -28.3% POT.

The Full Set:

Race 1 – (8) Wild Thoughts – (10) Starphistocated – (5) Sunset Park – (4) Monkhaha
Looks a two-horse race to kick off proceedings with this week’s 1800m Midway. (8) Wild Thoughts goes on top – a progressive gelding who maps for a lovely run just off the speed from barrier 9. He has the fitness now third-up to tackle 1800m after back-to-back wins. (10) Starphistocated is the danger, bringing a strong last-start rating behind the impressive (11) Tazima. She stays at 1800m and has a tactical edge over (8) Wild Thoughts. Outside of them, I could make place cases for both (5) Sunset Park and (4) Monkhaha, who come off last-start wins.
Suggested Bet – No Bet

Race 2 – (4) Warrior For Peace – (3) Solitario – (13) Nova Centauri – (7) Ghost Walker
Wide-open Highway event with a fast tempo expected up front. (4) Warrior For Peace goes on top – he has residual fitness and looked sharp in a recent 1100m trial. He should find the right lanes and let rip on this soft deck. I respect the McDonald booking aboard (3) Solitario, but gate 1 looks sticky and, going off his form, $3.90 feels rock bottom. (13) Nova Centauri is full of confidence after a career-peak win last start. Alysha Collett has her work cut out from the draw, but with the expected pattern she’ll be flashing late. (7) Ghost Walker has looked sharp in recent trials and the firmer track plays into his hands.
Suggested Bet – No Bet

Race 3 – (7) Amreekiyah – (8) Sister Daae – (1) Sacred Rocks – (6)  
Smart BM78 over the 1500m. The key form race ties in the two main chances (7) Amreekiyah and (8) Sister Daae. The move to a firmer deck is crucial for (7) Amreekiyah, who looked to labour last start in the heavy conditions. The extra 100m and good gate play into her hands. (8) Sister Daae did beat her home last start but looks the superior wet tracker. The booking of James is key, but she’ll need a good ride to get off the fence. (1) Sacred Rocks is another progressive type who looks well placed from a good barrier and has claims off a slight freshen.
Suggested Bet – Amreekiyah WIN

Race 4 – (9) Nkosi – (4) Captain Furai – (7) Seven’s – (3) Rogue Rocker
Wide-open event with not a whole lot of speed expected up front. I’ll side with the dominant last-start winner (9) Nkosi. The lightly raced gelding should take improvement second up and draws to get a lovely run on the fence just off the speed. The drying deck looks to hinder (4) Captain Furai’s chances. He got too far back last start, but from gate 5 I don’t think McDonald will make the same mistake. (7) Seven’s is an intriguing runner – smart first-up win and looks to have furnished now in his second Australian prep. The Victorian visitor (3) Rogue Rocker also commands respect.
Suggested Bet – No Bet

Race 5 – (7) She’s Unusual – (3) Amusing – (11) Tazima – (1) Travolta
Another open event with little tempo expected up front. At odds, I’m happy to side with (7) She’s Unusual. Forget her Randwick run last start; go back two starts and she ran a career-peak over 1800m on a Soft 5. Anywhere near that she goes close. (3) Amusing now needs to bring his back-to-back wet track wins to a firmer deck. (11) Tazima is in the mix, but the query is barrier 2 – he may be in a world of pain when the sprint goes on. (1) Travolta is next best with the smart use of the 3kg claim.
Suggested Bet – No Bet

Race 6 – (4) Sixties – (2) Providence – (3) Grand Prairie – (1) Aerodrome
The first of the feature races is the Group 3 Up And Coming Stakes over 1300m for the three-year-olds. I was impressed with the last-start win of (4) Sixties, not just visually but also on the clock. He should find a lovely spot outside the leader and get first crack when angling into the superior lanes. The Waller x McDonald combination aboard (2) Providence looks the danger. A slow-burning two-year-old, he looks back in a big way at three. One soft but stylish trial suggests he’s ready, and barrier 5 gives him every chance. (3) Grand Prairie can improve back on firmer ground from a good draw, while (1) Aerodrome has place claims. Outstanding race.
Suggested Bet – Sixties WIN / Providence SAVE

Race 7 – (3) Roselyn’s Star – (10) Without Parallel – (6) Polyglot – (2) Confess Our Dreams
As strong as you’ll find for a BM78 – plenty of speed expected from the 1100m chute start. Runs in transit will be key. (3) Roselyn’s Star maps to get the run of the race from barrier 4. He copped a tough run in transit last start at this track and trip and only needs to hold that form to be winning. (10) Without Parallel put up a big figure last start in a dominant Highway win. The query is how much pressure he can withstand, and whether the inside lanes hold up from his draw. (6) Polyglot will need the speed hot if he’s to run on from barrier 10 – the chute start often hinders horses with that pattern. Outside of them, (2) Confess Our Dreams looks huge odds and a sneaky place chance.
Suggested Bet – Roselyn’s Star EW

Race 8 – (7) Raging Force – (4) King Of Pop – (2) Rivellino – (5) Wodeton
The second feature is the Group 3 San Domenico Stakes over 1100m. Cracking race on paper. (7) Raging Force went up the wrong odds and has been rightfully backed into favourite. He’s coming off back-to-back strong figures and carries that crucial race fitness edge. There looks to be good speed up front; if they overdo it, I could entertain bets on both (4) King Of Pop and (2) Rivellino – the pair have trialled impressively and both possess a lethal turn of foot. What do we do with (5) Wodeton? Smart trial, right jockey, but we’ll lean on the yard late to confirm if he’s here to win.
Suggested Bet – Raging Force WIN / King Of Pop & Rivellino SAVE

Race 9 – (7) Mchale – (13) Half Yours – (4) Estadio Mestalla – (9) Greenbeni
A massive field assembled for a competitive BM100 over 1500m. At the odds, I’m happy to side with the fresh (7) Mchale. Go back to last prep and he won the G3 Bill Ritchie at huge odds before a sneaky good Epsom run. Yes, he’s been off the scene 329 days, but the booking of James adds confidence. I also respect the earl