Best Bets
Best Value: Race 4 No.2 Esmahli
Next Best: Race 7 No.6 Bella Montagna
Next Best: Race 1 No.2 Written In Munny
Best Bet: Race 9 No.7 Bev’s Nine
Turf Talk:
- Track is True Entire
- Strong pattern expected. With the wet track, lanes 1–4 in the straight are likely to be inferior
- Ideally want runners settling forward of midfield and off the rails in transit, using lanes 4+ in the straight
Race 1
Hoping this rain doesn’t hit and we see the Rosehill track stay in the soft range.
Keen to side with the Richard and Will Freedman-trained (2) Written In Munny. Quiet first trial before running slick time in his second hit-out. Wet is unknown but at $4.60 I’m happy to bet if he runs here.
(4) Thyme To Go maps well from the inside barrier and should lead again. Solid enough debut but looks under the odds at $3.
(1) Outspan comes through the same lead-up race, hitting the line well and goes in the mix.
Selections:
(2) Written In Munny
(4) Thyme To Go
(1) Outspan
Suggested bet: Written In Munny (Win)
Race 2
Tricky Highway this week with solid enough speed expected on paper.
Happy to stick with the Matthew Dale-trained (9) Rose Aye. Smart last start win and should have no issue stepping up to 1400m. The wide gate shouldn’t pose any issues with the expected track pattern.
(17) Regal Problem would have gone on top if it was dry. Progressive type who has trialled impressively again.
(8) Considered gets in light at the weights and is a progressive type chasing four in a row.
(2) Tapa Kick will improve second up rising to 1400m, with the wet deck a big tick.
(1) Fingers Hunter strips fitter second-up and goes in the mix.
Selections:
(9) Rose Aye
(17) Regal Problem
(8) Considered
(2) Tapa Kick
(1) Fingers Hunter
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 3
Solid speed expected over the 1200m.
I expect (9) Let’s Go Again to improve sharply if this race goes ahead. She maps ideally fourth-up and will relish the rain.
(2) Cryptonic sticks to his pet 1200m trip, wet or dry doesn’t matter, and from gate eight should land on speed and off the rails.
(6) Mother Goose drops back to Midway grade and should appreciate staying at 1200m.
(5) Zoutastic is consistent and the claim is used smartly third-up.
The knock on favourite (3) Tequila Baby is the wet deck.
Selections:
(9) Let’s Go Again
(2) Cryptonic
(6) Mother Goose
(5) Zoutastic
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 4
This race will change complexion with the scratching of Stormland.
Keen to side with the Hayes-trained (2) Esmahli. Dominant last start win producing a big figure and only needs to hold that form to win again.
(4) Lull bounced back sharply second-up and is at peak fitness now.
(5) Better Late and (6) Zumbo both look very short in the market and need to step up to win this.
Selections:
(2) Esmahli
(4) Lull
(5) Better Late
(6) Zumbo
Suggested bet: Esmahli (Win)
Race 5
Keen to put (3) Imperialist on top in the January Cup. Freshened and given 22 days between runs again, with his wet track ability a major positive.
(1) Future History has been heavily backed early and brings a strong soft track profile.
(2) Unspoken may not start favourite with the wet track a slight query.
(8) Let’s Fly rounds out the numbers and is suited in the smaller field.
Selections:
(3) Imperialist
(1) Future History
(2) Unspoken
(8) Let’s Fly
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 6
Wide open event.
(6) Editing gets the setup he wants with a wet track and should control a moderate tempo.
(8) Aroha Stone can peak third-up and should relish conditions.
(3) Changing Colours charged late behind Editing last start, wet is not ideal but the draw and Nash aboard help.
(1) Miss Hades will find this easier than last start, Can bounce back.
Selections:
(6) Editing
(8) Aroha Stone
(3) Changing Colours
(1) Miss Hades
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 7
The 2400m looks tricky with speed likely early as horses search for position.
(6) Bella Montagna was excellent last start coming from an impossible position. She’s at peak fitness and the expected track pattern suits.
(7) Bestower is in form and loves the wet.
(5) Forbidden Riff and (8) Lennox both draw well and should land off the rails, which is key.
Selections:
(6) Bella Montagna
(7) Bestower
(5) Forbidden Riff
(8) Lennox
Suggested bet: Bella Montagna
Race 8
Happy to take on (5) Band Of Brothers from the inside draw, given lanes 1–4 look inferior.
(6) Just Party goes on top with SP, wet track form and a positive draw.
(2) Romeo’s Choice has to overcome 61kg but his wet form is strong.
(5) Band Of Brothers is super consistent. Gets some weight relief here. Best is good enough.
(4) Rhythm Of Love looks next best. Generally runs well fresh.
Selections:
(6) Just Party
(2) Romeo’s Choice
(5) Band Of Brothers
(4) Rhythm Of Love
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 9
Keen to side with the unbeaten (7) Bev’s Nine. Back-to-back strong trials and previously produced a career peak on a heavy track third-up. The lack of race fitness is the only query.
(11) Massira is the danger with a strong wet profile and key claim.
(1) Eye Of The Fire maps well and uses the claim.
(12) Exfortythree was good on debut. Looks progressive.
Selections:
(7) Bev’s Nine
(11) Massira
(1) Eye Of The Fire
(12) Exfortythree
Suggested bet: Bev’s Nine (Win)
Race 10
Good race to close the day.
At the price, happy to be with (16) Hereward. Back-to-back wins last preparation came on heavy tracks and race fitness is a big plus.
(7) Cross Tasman is the obvious danger but looks short from an awkward draw.
(1) Pippie Beach is suited by the wide gate and claim.
(5) Cormac T is a place chance.
Selections:
(16) Hereward
(7) Cross Tasman
(1) Pippie Beach
(5) Cormac T
Suggested bet: No bet
