The Plan of Attack:
| Race | No. | Horse | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Race 1 | 7 | Sea Trader | Serious turn of foot, looks hard to beat on debut |
| Race 1 | 3 | Danzsin | Excuses on debut, rolls forward here, over the odds |
| Race 5 | 10 | Dramaticus | Maps well, each-way hope. Value |
| Race 7 | 4 | Rich Champagne | Super late first-up, rolls forward here. Best Play |
| Race 7 | 14 | Realika | Strong late last start. Best Play |
Turf Talk:
- Working with a firm deck, which is a positive.
- Rail goes out 12m; wouldn’t surprise to see wider lanes in play.
- Hillside has wide-open expanses, good runs into any turns and a long home straight – all horses should get their chance.
Stats That Matter:
- John Leek Jnr is going at a 25% strike rate from his last 100 runners at a PoT of 17.2%.
- Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman are another in form stable, with 22 winners from their last 100 runners.
- Ethan Brown (23%) and Damian Lane (24%) are the hot jockeys heading to the meeting.
Race 1 – 1.10pm
Cracking race to kick off the card.
Sheesh, (7) Sea Trader is an exciting debutant. This colt looks to have a lethal turn of foot and I’d recommend anyone with a remote interest in form go and look at his Bendigo jump-out. He has settled a fair way back in his lead-up work but he doesn’t actually leave the barriers too badly, so at 1300m on debut don’t think he needs to be right out the back. He’s been well enough found now, but suspect he gets back out closer to the jump.
(3) Danzsin had little luck on debut at Warrnambool and had trialled well prior – at $23, he looks the best value in the race. Wide draw isn’t ideal, but they have a good run into the home bend and I suspect Meech might roll forward in a race there doesn’t look a lot of tempo.
(6) Regal Award over-raced quite badly first up at The Valley. Suspect with Shinn going on they roll forward and look to race right on speed. The query I have with him is his manners – he has been very keen in both runs to date and that’s a concern stepping up in trip. There’s no doubting his talent, and when the penny drops he will make a nice horse.
Slight query on (8) Wetumpka at 1300m but he’s going to get a good run handy to the speed and has race fitness on his side.
(7) Sea Trader
(3) Danzsin
(6) Regal Award
(8) Wetumpka
Betting Suggestion – Think (7) Sea Trader will drift, so hold fire for a better price. Would include (3) Danzsin in everything.
Race 2 – 1.45pm
The (1) I Am The Empire controls the tempo.
(5) Dreams Come True did a good job to sprint over the top of key rivals off a slow tempo here last start. That was 2400m and given the tempo still not 100% convinced she stays, but this isn’t going to be run at a manic tempo.
(3) Gililaeus won on a heavy deck last time out and is probably more adept on top of the ground. The concern is the 69 days between runs, but clearly they’ve kept him up to the mark going straight to 2400m.
(7) Roaring Engine is looking for a dry deck and gets it here.
(5) Dreams Come True
(3) Gililaeus
(7) Roaring Engine
(8) She Said
Betting Suggestion – There are better betting races on the card.
Race 3 – 2.20pm
Another good race. All of them last-start winners!
Ultimately, I think (4) Point Barrow is going to be better over further but there’s good speed here and that should enable her to get into the race late. She defied a decent bias to win first up, and given that was off a 37-week break she should have plenty of improvement to come.
(2) Yamashita’s Gold got the maiden out of the way in good style last start and he will be dive-bombing last along with Point Barrow.
Loved how (7) Barari moved in a jump-out subsequent to her Mildura debut win, she looks to have come on and should continue to improve.
(4) Point Barrow
(2) Yamashita’s Gold
(7) Barari
(8) Shinjina
Suggested Bet – Could have something small (4) Point Barrow.
Race 4 – 2.55pm
Plenty of speed here. (1) Fileeta, (3) Stokke, (4) Nextonixs, (5) Room For Bingo, and (10) Visual all like to lead. Throw (8) Saluted in that mix too.
Reckon the race sets up very well for (2) Per Sempre.
Per Sempre is flying. He will settle near-enough last given the speed engaged here but will be flying at his younger rivals late.
Gee, Fileeta looks a ridiculous price at $91. The very end of 1000m against these horses might be a little query, but she’s taken a sit in the past and won and her recent jump-out was excellent (par for the course for her).
Visual looks to have immense talent and she has jumped-out well for this. The concern is 53 weeks off due to a knee issue and she looks like she has good improvement to come based off her appearance in jump-outs. She can win, for sure, but suspect she will only be better second and third up.
Not sure gate one is ideal for Saluted but she has strong 1000m ratings in the book while Trembles is exceptionally speedy but may be vulnerable late.
(2) Per Sempre
(10) Visual
(8) Saluted
(1) Fileeta
Suggested Bet – Something small (2) Per Sempre E/W.
Race 5 – 3.30pm
Even race.
Think (10) Dramaticus has a great each-way hope. He took a while to wind up over 1400m last time out but was excellent past the post. He’s ready for a mile now and suspect from a good gate he settles much closer.
(6) Masterful gives the impression he’s looking for the mile this time in so worth a shot at $15, he looks over the odds.
Been a fan of (4) Flying Valley this preparation and he got a deserved win on the board last start. Slightly tricky map here and on trial at the mile, but he’s a leading hope, albeit short enough for mine.
Race doesn’t end there – (12) First Chorus is progressive and maps well for D Lane while the blinkers going on (11) Shiny New Deal is a positive gear change.
(10) Dramaticus
(6) Masterful
(4) Flying Valley
(12) First Chorus
Suggested Bet – Can back (10) Dramaticus each-way.
Race 6 – 4.05pm
Always had time for (4) Garnacho and think he’s a good each-way bet here. He trialled nicely leading into the campaign and didn’t have the best of luck at Caulfield fresh.
(1) Nimbustwothousand gets a soft run from gate one and heavy to dry is no issue for him. He raced like a horse that would appreciate the extra 1000m when winning at Seymour last start and with Logan Bates’ claim he gets in well.
(6) Enna’s Dream is more effective on soft tracks, but she’s racing well and Hillside/rail out suit. She will be steaming home late.
(10) Kiribilli probably has the most talent in the race but she’s had one start in 56 weeks, which is a concern when being asked to back her as favourite. Jump-outs were ‘ok’ leading in. If she brings her best, she probably wins, but there’s enough against her at the price.
(4) Garnacho
(1) Nimbustwothousand
(6) Enna’s Dream
(10) Kiribilli
Suggested Bet – Each-way (4) Garnacho.
Race 7 – 4.40pm
(4) Rich Champagne seems over the odds. He got airborne last campaign, winning for fun. His first up run was super, flashing home from the tail, the perfect pipe-opener for 1800m second up. Craig Williams takes over and doubt they’ll be flopping out the back again, he will be right up on speed.
(16) Realika is the other one I could have something on. Seven weeks between runs last time out when flashing home the 8th best last 400/200m split of the meeting. Strong tempo here suits.
(12) Kaazi will eat up the 1800m.
(4) Rich Champagne
(16) Realika
(12) Kaazi
(6) Dashwood
Betting Suggestion – Backing (4) Rich Champagne and (16) Realika.
Race 8 – 5.15pm
Tricky finish.
(10) Trial By Press didn’t have a lot of luck behind Bossy Benita last time out and she maps for a lovely suck run here. She was six weeks between runs last time out so should derive good fitness benefit – her best ratings are good enough to win this.
(9) He’ll Rip can push forward in a race there doesn’t look a lot of speed. He was luckless last start and has been racing well throughout his preparation.
(5) Raikoke drops in grade but not sure where he’s at – was good late at Flemington two back but a touch flattered potentially and then poor at The Valley last time out.
(2) La Ferrari has trialled nicely.
(10) Trial By Press
(9) He’ll Rip
(5) Raikoke
(2) La Ferrari
Betting Suggestion – Need at least the top three in the quaddie.
