Betsy’s Set: Turnbull Stakes

Race 1

Speed looks Capper Thirtynine on the outside and Princess Que drawn inside. She’s An Artist right there. They should go at an even clip.

She’s An Artist produced a huge peak rating in winning at 1100m down the straight last campaign. To the eye she disappointed first up, but she pulled up with a slow recovery and had only had one jump-out. Additionally, it was a really fast-run 1100m race — which is somewhat unusual down the straight. The query is the end of 1200m, but don’t think they’ll go as hard here and she has the talent.

Stoli Bolli has had things against him his past two: wrong side of the track last start and Red Hot Nicc getting a loose lead/picnic two back. Getting back to 1200m is ideal and he does have the capacity to be more forward in the run, in a race that has limited chances.

Think the best roughie in the race is De Bergerac — goes well down the straight and is ideally drawn in 15. Probably better with a bit of sting out, but will be strong late.

Selections:
(12) She’s An Artist
(10) Stoli Bolli
(2) De Bergerac
(7) Persian Spirit
Betting suggestion: Cup of tea and lunch.

Race 2 – Maribyrnong Trial Stakes

Streisand was terrific in a jump-out around the bend at Cranbourne and then wasn’t asked to do a huge amount late after leading them up down the straight in a jump-out. She will likely press forward, make her own luck and prove hard to beat.

One Day At A Time has jumped-out well twice here at Flemington and has shown both good talent and an ability to quicken when asked.

Think Rubare is over the odds at $23. Went nicely in her straight-track jump-out, seemed to do everything professionally.

Have to respect Knightsbridge. Typical trial for the stable, who won the race last year. Drawn to find the fence first, which is always an advantage in these early season 2yo races.

Selections:
(12) Streisand
(10) Rubare
(4) Knightsbridge
(9) One Day At A Time
Betting suggestion: Not a 2yo race I’m overly keen on — include Streisand and Rubare in wide exotics.

Race 3 – Super Impose Stakes

Speed seems genuine. Think Super Paradise, Azazel and Kakkoii lead. Others can press forward.

Miewa has been looking for more speed in his races and should get that here. He profiles as an 1800m horse who will relish Flemington’s long straight. If they go quick enough and backmarkers can get into it, expect him to charge late. On ratings he’s right in the mix, but his racing pattern remains his Achilles heel.

Most of the Melbourne form looks a touch suspect, so this sets up well for Officiate. He’s still learning and can over-race, but blinkers should help sharpen him up. From a good draw he’ll have options early. His two runs this time in have had merit and the win over Angel Feet (who was a touch unlucky) — who wasn’t disgraced against key rivals in the Derby Trial — reads well.

Plenty come through a messy Derby Trial, a bunched finish where interference played a big role. Of those, Options looks the pick, but he has a habit of being slow away.

Selections:
(2) Miewa
(3) Officiate
(4) Options
(11) Arabian Prince
Betting suggestion: Pattern will be critical.

Race 4 – Edward Manifold Stakes

Looks good speed here with Bellazaine and Just A Journey to fight for the lead.

Just Kick took on the boys in the Exford Plate last start and did a good job in restricted room late. The mile will suit her down to the ground, as will getting into a race with a bit more tempo.

Bellazaine was tough as nails on speed in the Thousand Guineas Prelude last Sunday, but back in the field Mating Call caught my eye. The backmarkers lost sight of the lure there, but this filly attacked the line strongly. She was terrific winning against the pattern of the day at Balaklava on debut, ripping home the best last 600/400/200m of the meeting. A mile looks ideal, drawn out to ensure clean air and Jamie Melham now jumps aboard — there’s a bit of x-factor about her.

The two on-speed horses — Bellazaine and Just A Journey — are going to be in this a long way. Just A Journey has had the run at 1550m under her belt — which will stand her in good stead in what should be a genuinely run mile — and she brings the highest last-start rating into the race. Two-from-two on top of the ground and a deserving favourite.

Selections:
(9) Mating Call
(6) Just Kick
(5) Just A Journey
(1) Bellazaine
Betting suggestion: Backing both Mating Call and Just Kick at double-figure odds.

Race 5 – Rose Of Kingston Stakes

Miss Aria and Miraval Rose likely lead from Tuileries.

On Display is the one to beat. Terrific first-up at Caulfield before having no luck here in the Let’s Elope. Drawn ideally in gate eight to stay off the fence and avoid traffic — a deserved favourite.

Pondalowie is racing well. She got too far back first-up but worked home nicely, then again settled rearward in stronger grade before hitting the line hard behind Café Millenium/Transatlantic — strong open-class form. She’s reinvented herself at 1400m this prep. Damian Lane knows her well from raceday and jump-outs. The map is tricky, but she can figure in the finish.

Movin Out can get keen, which she did at Newcastle fresh. That run should take the edge off, and staying at 1400m should help her relax. Drawn to find a handy spot and her best is good enough; just haven’t seen it at 1400m yet (her best local ratings are 2000m+).

Selections:
(4) On Display
(11) Pondalowie
(2) Miraval Rose
(9) Movin Out
Betting suggestion: Backing both On Display and Pondalowie.

Race 6 – Danehill Stakes

Cracking contest.

He hasn’t posted a figure yet, but there’s x-factor about Rosberg and I think he can take the step in grade and be most competitive. He showed plenty of talent in trials prior to debut and then overcame an interrupted passage to win well at The Valley. He wasn’t asked to do a lot in his jump-out down the straight (would’ve been nice to see what he did past the post!) but moved well enough. Don’t think there’s any meat on the bone price-wise, but do think he’s the one they have to beat.

Tentyris brings solid 2yo form, although I question the depth. He’s trialled up very well for this return and should be most competitive.

Loved how Inkaruna hit the line behind My Gladiola; think both can be competitive here.

Betting suggestion: No bet

Race 7 – Bart Cummings

Gilded Water and Sayedaty Sadaty the two most likely leaders. The unknown is Bur Dubai drawn sticky in 17. A few here already qualified for the Cup may be happy to have softer runs in transit.

Gilded Water comes out of a genuinely run 2000m where he was dominant with 58.5kg, and now drops to 54kg in a race Jamie Melham can control from on speed. Yes, this is tougher, but he looks to have really improved at his second Australian campaign and the need to win to get into the Melbourne Cup ensures real intent.

Think Berkshire Breeze is over the odds. Held up when trying to build momentum at Caulfield last start, his two runs this prep have been building perfectly to peak third-up with Zahra now going on. Ran Deakin to a small margin in the Roy Higgins third-up last campaign and think Zahra will try to be more positive here. Firm ground a key in his favour.

Revelare is still a small query at 2500m for mine. Comes out of a really slowly run lead-up but was still too good. Drawn well, should get a perfect trail and every chance to run out the trip.

Selections:
(15) Gilded Water
(6) Berkshire Breeze
(2) Revelare
(3) Asterix
Betting suggestion: Gilded Water a deserving favourite. Suspect he drifts to $2.50+, I have him $2.30. Can send Berkshire Breeze around a winner at $10. Include Asterix in wide exotics — best of the roughies.

Race 8 – Turnbull Stakes

Via Sistina is the starting point on ratings. Her dry-track 2000m figures are elite and she now gets her pet trip on firmer ground. From the gate she should settle just forward of midfield with the right horses to tow her into the race. I can’t get her as short as the market given the soft lead-up run (third-up off a farcical Makybe) and fitness is the query. That said, she’s lifted at 2000m off slower runs before and with even luck deserves favouritism.

Half Yours is the emerging talent. Firm ground was the question, but he handled it at Caulfield when settling handy to a solid tempo and exploding late with a strong last 400m. The 2000m run under his belt is a big tick. Maps ideally, rock-hard fit, and despite the weight scale against him, he can win.

Antino third-up is ready to strike. Fair first-up in the Memsie, then no chance in the sit-sprint Makybe but still ran home in 32.5 (best last 600m of the day). If Shinn presses early, he’s a big threat.

Aeliana has matched Via Sistina this prep and now gets a 1.5kg swing. If the race is more genuine, she’ll likely spot Via a length or two and 2400m may be her sweet spot, but she can win.

Sir Delius looks like he will be at his best at 2400m and beyond. That said, he should get a good run on speed and be in this a long way.

Selections:
(6) Half Yours
(1) Antino
(4) Via Sistina
(7) Aeliana
Betting suggestion: Have all four plus Sir Delius in the quaddie at a minimum. Cracking contest.

Race 9 – Gilgai Stakes

Buenos Noches could be the surprise packet. His best ratings — including down the straight at 1200m — are the best any horse has produced in the race. He’s been gelded this campaign and generally pulls out a good run fresh. Jump-outs satisfactory without raving.

War Machine looks ideally drawn in 17. He was super through the line in his latest jump-out, suggesting he’s come back in excellent order from his successful QLD trip. Probably more a 1400m horse but the straight-track tempo should suit (first go down the straight).

Star Patrol has clearly had issues that have stalled his career, but his straight-track ratings are elite and a solid Bobbie Lewis run fresh suggests tie-back surgery may have helped. Drawn to lead and control the race down the stand-side — he’s right in play.

Don’t think Airman was in the best part of the track in the Bobbie Lewis and he wanted to stargaze the last furlong. Blinkers back on could make a big difference.

Selections:
(9) Buenos Noches
(1) War Machine
(13) Star Patrol
(2) Airman
Betting suggestion: Could have something small E/W Beunos Nachos.

Race 10 – Paris Lane Stakes

Looks to be really good speed here which will suit Cafe Millenium. He is relishing firm ground and the form around him is strong. The Hayes boys have done a great job turning him into a winning machine; he’s drawn to build momentum down the outside and has the very in-form Celine Gaudray aboard. He has the best recent ratings of any runner in the race and while he climbs back up in the weights he has won with 59kg and 58.5kg in recent starts. Provided horses can make ground, can’t see him not being in the finish.

Media World is on the up and getting back to 1400m is a plus. Sticky gate/map to contend with and short enough at $3.40, but must go in quaddies.

Selections:
(3) Cafe Millenium
(9) Media World
(10) Von Hauke
(11) Shadizi
Betting suggestion: Something on Cafe Millenium